As I prepare to consider my mock draft for this year, I
start with the first considerations about each team's needs and the chances of
them making a move.
This year, the draft class features plenty of talent at wide
receiver and multiple quality pass rushers. The running back class is deep,
although nobody stands out as a game changer. Everyone knows about the top two
QB prospects, and after that, the best prospects may be third-round picks at
best. There are some good offensive linemen, but not that many worthy of a high
pick. Cornerback depth is good, while safety depth is not.
This year's draft is expected to see pass rushers and
receivers go early, but not every team who drafts in the top 10 has a pressing
need for them. Several of these teams will likely want to trade down, but the
question is, are there teams willing to trade up with them?
Before I actually get to my mock draft, I want to consider
the likelihood of teams wanting to trade up or down in the first round. I
assumed the teams with the second through fifth overall picks aren't looking to
move up the board, but did consider which teams drafting near the end of the
first round, might want to trade out. I considered the likelihood of teams
moving up or down based on what their biggest needs are, and whether or not it
makes sense to move up to fill those needs, or if the needs could be better
addressed by moving down the board. (For fun, I looked at the two teams with no
first-round pick and considered whether or not they would move up or down in
the second round.)
Figuring out which teams are more likely to want to move up
or down, gives us a better idea of what draft-day moves could take place, and
allows us to projects trades in a mock draft.
Teams are listed by positions of need and number of picks
(with number of compensatory picks, which cannot be traded, in parentheses)
1. Tampa Bay
Positions of need: Quarterback, offensive tackle, defensive
end
Total picks: 8
Trade down? - Only if somebody approaches them with an
RG3-type trade. That's highly unlikely.
2. Tennessee
Positions of need: Quarterback, wide receiver, offensive
tackle, running back
Trade down? - Given that the Titans reportedly aren't
interested in Marcus Mariota, and that offensive tackle and wide receiver are
bigger needs than defensive help, it would be in the Titans' best interest to
move down and trade with any team that is interested in Mariota. The Titans
have six picks and need lots of help on offense, so more draft picks would
help.
3. Jacksonville
Positions of need: Cornerback, defensive end, center, safety
Total picks: 7
Trade down? - If Mariota is still available, the Jaguars would
be in good position to trade down, meaning they can acquire additional picks
and get better value in drafting for their needs.
4. Oakland
Positions of need: Wide receiver, cornerback, safety,
defensive end
Total picks: 7
Trade down? - The Raiders have shown a willingness to trade
down, as long as they remain confident they can still get the player they want.
The wide receiver class is deep this year, so if somebody wants to move to this
spot to get a player they really covet, the Raiders will listen to offers.
5. Washington
Positions of need: Safety, inside linebacker, offensive
tackle, cornerback
Total picks: 7
Trade down? - Among the teams drafting in the top five,
Washington has the biggest motivation for trading down, because it needs to
improve at several positions and improve its depth. But the best value at this
point is in pass rushers and wide receivers, which aren't Washington's biggest
needs. Thus, a trade down makes the most sense.
6. New York Jets
Positions of need: Quarterback, outside linebacker, running
back, safety
Total picks: 6
Trade up? - That depends how badly they want Mariota. If the
Jets are worried that somebody will trade up for him, then they might want to
talk to the Titans. If they aren't interested in Mariota, then they have no
reason to move up.
Trade down? - Again, this goes back to Mariota. If the Jets
want him, they should take him if he falls here. If they don't want him, or
he's not available, then trading down would be a good option. The Jets could
use a pass rusher, so they don't want to move too far down the board, but
moving down a couple of spots with a team that needs a wide receiver, would
give them more picks to fill needs.
7. Chicago
Positions of need: Defensive line, linebacker, cornerback,
wide receiver.
Total picks: 6
Trade up? - Unless the Bears absolutely believe they can't
do without a player like Leonard Williams, they shouldn't move up the board.
Trade down? - This all depends on whether or not they
believe a player they like will still be on the board if they move down a
couple of spots. An extra draft pick certainly wouldn't hurt.
8. Atlanta
Positions of need: Pass rusher, running back, offensive line
Total picks: 8
Trade up? - We've seen Atlanta make bold moves up the draft
board before, but that was when they picked late in the first round. There
isn't a pressing need for Atlanta to move up from here, unless they fall in
love with somebody like Leonard Williams.
Trade down? - Only if all the pass rushers they like are
gone, but that doesn't seem likely. The only other reason to move down is
somebody offering a Sammy Watkins-type deal.
9. New York Giants
Positions of need: Safety, offensive line, tight end,
linebacker
Total picks: 8
Trade up? - No. There isn't a safety or offensive lineman
worth moving up the board to get.
Trade down? - This would make more sense. If the Giants can
find a team who wants to move up the board, a trade down would make sense to
gain an additional pick, and get better value in the first round.
10. St. Louis Rams
Positions of need: Offensive line, cornerback, linebacker
Total picks: 6 (1 compensatory)
Trade up? - No. There's no reason to move up the board for
an offensive lineman.
Trade down? - That depends. Certainly, the Rams would
benefit from acquiring an extra pick, and they would certainly take an offer
that's too good to pass up. But if all the offensive linemen prospects remain
on the board, it will be tough for another team to convince the Rams to trade
down.
11. Minnesota
Positions of need: Middle linebacker, offensive guard,
running back, cornerback
Total picks: 7
Trade up? - No. The Vikings have no reason to trade up for
their positions of need.
Trade down? - It would make sense for the Vikings to move
down the board to get better value at the positions where they need help.
12. Cleveland
Positions of need: Quarterback, wide receiver, tight end,
defensive end
Total picks: 10
Trade up? - And here's one of the more likely candidates to
want to move up the board. If they can't get Mariota, they will probably have
their eyes on the top wide receivers. They have 10 picks, none of them
compensatory, so they can deal whatever picks they want.
Trade down? - If they can't trade up from this spot, they'll
likely stay put and draft the best wide receiver available -- unless Mariota falls
to them at this spot.
13. New Orleans
Positions of need: Defensive line, linebacker, cornerback,
offensive line
Total picks: 9
Trade up? - The Saints have done it in years past, and while
that's mostly happened when they have drafted late, they have the picks
available to move up a couple of spots if they see a defensive lineman they
like.
Trade down? - Probably not from this spot. If they don't
move up from 13, they are more likely to stay put and take the player they
want.
14. Miami
Positions of need: Linebacker, cornerback, wide receiver,
safety
Total picks: 6
Trade up? - You would think the Dolphins might consider
moving up the board to get a receiver they like, but they'd take a lot of risk,
given that they just have six picks.
Trade down? Not from this spot. The most likely scenario is
the Dolphins drafting the receiver they want at this spot. A trade down in the
second round to obtain an extra pick isn't out of the question, though.
15. San Francisco 49ers
Positions of need: Cornerback, inside linebacker, offensive
guard, defensive line
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)
Trade up? - Not for the positions where they need the most
help.
Trade down? - They already have nine picks, but they might
consider moving down a couple of spots if the right offer comes along.
16. Houston
Positions of need: Inside linebacker, wide receiver,
quarterback, outside linebacker
Total picks: 10 (3 compensatory)
Trade up? - As with the Niners, not for the positions where
they need the most help.
Trade down? - Again, a similar situation to the Niners: They
have plenty of picks, but the right offer to move down could be accepted.
17. San Diego
Positions of need: Outside linebacker, offensive guard, wide
receiver, defensive line.
Total picks: 6
Trade up? - We've heard the stories about the Chargers'
interest in Marcus Mariota, and they could offer Phillip Rivers as part of a
trade to move up. If a team demands draft picks, it could be tougher for the
Chargers to make a move, as they have just six picks.
Trade down? - If they don't make a move up the board to
draft Mariota, they are not likely to trade down from this spot.
18. Kansas City
Positions of need: Defensive end, wide receiver, center,
inside linebacker
Total picks: 10 (four compensatory)
Trade up? - The Chiefs have a compensatory pick in the third
round, and while they can't trade it, the other third-round pick they have
could become part of a package to move up for a pass rusher or wide receiver.
Trade down? - I would not expect them to do this.
19. Cleveland (from Buffalo)
Trade up from this spot? - If the Browns made a move up from
No. 10 overall, there's a chance this pick could have been part of the trade.
If they don't move up from No. 10, they aren't likely to move up from No. 19
Trade down from this spot? - If they still draft at this
spot, they probably won't trade down from it.
20. Philadelphia
Positions of need: Wide receiver, offensive guard, safety
Total picks: 8
Trade up? - The talk about the Eagles wanting Mariota seems
to have died down, so I would imagine the answer is "no" to any moves
up the board.
Trade down? - Most likely, the Eagles won't look to trade
down, but could do so with the right offer.
21. Cincinnati
Positions of need: Outside linebacker, defensive end,
quarterback
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)
Trade up? - The Bengals may need a pass rusher, but they
have not recently been a team that makes big moves up the board.
Trade down? - Not likely. The Bengals will most likely stay
put and take the best pass rusher available.
22. Pittsburgh
Positions of need: Outside linebacker, safety, cornerback
Total picks: 8 (1 compensatory)
Trade up? - The Steelers are not known for moving up the
board. Don't bet on it happening this year, either.
Trade down? - As with the Bengals, bet on the Steelers
staying put and taking the best player available.
23. Detroit
Positions of need: Defensive tackle, running back, offensive
lineman, cornerback
Total picks: 6
Trade up? - Don't bet on it, not with just six picks to work
with.
Trade down? - Moving down a couple of spots, while gaining
an extra pick, could be a good move.
24. Arizona
Positions of need: Pass rusher, running back, center,
defensive tackle
Total picks: 8 (1 compensatory)
Trade up? - The Cardinals may need pass rushing help, but
it's highly unlikely they make a bold move up the board.
Trade down? - If the right offer comes along, they may be
willing to slide down a couple of spots.
25. Carolina
Positions of need: Offensive tackle, cornerback, wide
receiver, defensive end
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)
Trade up? - Not for the positions they need to fill.
Trade down? - The Panthers are yet another team not looking
to trade down.
26. Baltimore
Positions of need: Wide receiver, cornerback, tight end,
defensive end
Total picks: 10 (3 compensatory)
Trade up? - Call it a remote possibility. The Ravens are
generally not known for making bold moves up the board, unless they made a move
down the board and can afford to make one back up the board (as was the case
the year they drafted Joe Flacco). But the fourth- and fifth-round picks they
got from the Lions could come into play.
Trade down?- If they don't trade up, they won't trade down.
27. Dallas
Positions of need: Defensive line, cornerback, running back,
safety
Total picks: 7
Trade up? - We've seen Jerry Jones and company make moves up
the board before, but it's not likely happening this year.
Trade down? - The Cowboys are another team not likely to
trade down.
28. Denver
Positions of need: Offensive line, safety, inside
linebacker, tight end
Total picks: 10 (4 compensatory)
Trade up? - The Broncos might be willing to move up a couple
of spots if an offensive lineman they like falls down the board.
Trade down? - Only if they don't see any offensive linemen
they like, and can get good value in return from a move down the board.
29. Indianapolis
Positions of need: Safety, center, running back, outside
linebacker
Total picks: 9 (1 compensatory)
Trade up? - No. There's no reason to move up the board to
fill their greatest needs.
Trade down? - The Colts will likely stay put at this spot.
30. Green Bay
Positions of need: Cornerback, inside linebacker, tight end
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)
Trade up? - The Packers are not known for doing this. (UPDATE: The Packers did make a move up the draft board when they selected Clay Matthews. I would not expect them to trade up this year, though.)
Trade down? - The Packers are the most likely candidate to
trade out of the first round, pick up an early second-round pick, and another
pick or two. If a team wants to trade back into the first round, this is the
most likely spot it will happen.
31. New Orleans (from Seattle)
Trade up from this spot? - Very unlikely to happen.
Trade down from this spot? - Ditto.
32. New England
Positions of need: Cornerback, offensive guard, defensive
tackle, running back
Total picks: 9 (3 compensatory)
Trade up? - The Patriots do this once in a while, but they
have no reason to do it for the positions they need to fill.
Trade down? - The Patriots do this more often, especially if
the right offer comes along. If nobody trades with Green Bay for the No. 30
overall pick, there's a good chance somebody will trade with the Patriots.
Otherwise, the Patriots may stay put.
Buffalo
First pick: Second round, 18th pick (No. 50 overall)
Positions of need: Quarterback, offensive line, inside
linebacker
Total picks: 6
Trade up? - They don't have enough picks to do so.
Trade down? - Not likely to happen in the second round.
Seattle
First pick: Second round, 31st pick (63rd overall)
Positions of need: Offensive guard or center, wide receiver,
cornerback
Total picks: 11 (4 compensatory)
Trade up? - A move up the board in the second round is
possible, as they have a few later-round picks to work with.
Trade down? - Not out of the second round.
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