Something that always generates buzz on, or just before, NFL
draft day is when a team makes a move up the board. Every time the likes of
Chris Berman or Rich Eisen announce that somebody has traded up in the first round,
the talk starts to focus on the top players still on the board and who everyone
expects to be the pick.
When a team makes a move up the board, it can have different
reasons for doing so. The trick, though, is to ensure you don't give up too
much in return to move up the board for a particular player, because you don't
want to chase after a player at the risk of hurting chance to improve your depth.
Generally speaking, the best time to move up the board is
when you enter the draft with a lot of picks and your depth is in good shape
going into the season. And in such cases, it doesn't matter if some of those
picks are compensatory picks that can't be traded, because you are most likely
using those for depth, anyway. An example: You enter the draft with nine total
picks, your regular seven picks you get each year, plus two compensatory picks
in the fifth round. Your depth is good, but you have a strong need at one
position. So it makes sense to deal your own fifth-round pick -- or even your
own fourth-round pick -- to move a few spots up the board in the first or
second round, because those two compensatory picks you have in the fifth round
still give you the chance to further help your depth.
It becomes riskier to make moves up the board when you don't
have many picks, or when you are depleting your depth. Enter the draft with six
picks, for example, and trading away two of your later picks to move up the
first round can come back to haunt you, because you miss the chance to improve
your depth.
Let's take a look back at some of the most notable moves up
the board, on or before draft day, in recent years. We'll start by going back
10 years ago, to 2005. I kept the focus on the first round of the draft, and graded
moves as either a good move, a bad move, or indifferent, based on the following
factors: What the player in question did for the team, how much the team who
drafted gave up to move up the board, how many picks the team had when the
draft was completed, and what became of the team from that point.
2005: Raiders make multiple draft moves for the 23rd overall
pick.
An important point to make first: The Oakland Raiders
entered the draft with no first-round pick, having sent that to the Minnesota
Vikings the year before to acquire Randy Moss. So they had to do plenty of
wheeling and dealing to get back into the first round. They made two trades,
two days prior to the NFL draft, to do this.
The first trade was with the New York Jets, in which the
Raiders sent their second-round pick, a pair of sixth rounders, and tight end
Doug Jolley, to get the Jets' first-round pick (26th overall) and a seventh-round
pick. Next, the Raiders took the 26th overall pick they just acquired, sending
it and a fourth-round pick, to the Seattle Seahawks to get the 23rd overall
pick. After all those moves, they selected cornerback Fabian Washington. When
the draft was over, the Raiders had made seven draft selections.
The 2005 season was not a good one for the Raiders, as they
finished 4-12, and it wasn't until 2010 that they finished with at least a .500
record. Washington lasted three seasons before being traded to the Ravens, and
while Washington was a solid player, he was far from being an impact player.
Although the Raiders made seven draft selections in 2005, the only one who
panned out was linebacker Kirk Morrison. So it's hard to argue that the moves
benefited the Raiders to any degree. Thus, there's only
one to grade this wheeling and dealing: Bad move.
2006: Steelers trade up for the 25th overall pick.
The Pittsburgh Steelers moved up seven spots in the first
round, getting this pick from the New York Giants in exchange for the Steelers'
first-, third-, and fourth-round selections. The Steelers finished the draft
with nine selections. And the player they drafted is one you have probably
heard of: wide receiver Santonio Holmes.
The rest of the story goes like this: The Steelers finished
the 2006 season 8-8, but two years later, won the Super Bowl. As it turns out,
the player they traded up for -- Holmes -- was the Super Bowl MVP, making
headlines for keeping his toes inbounds for the game-winning touchdown. Holmes got
better in each of his four seasons with the Steelers, catching 79 passes for
1,248 yards in his final year with the team. That was when Holmes made it clear
he wanted a new contract, and the Steelers decided to trade him to the Jets for
a fifth-round pick. Holmes might not have been an impact player, but the
Steelers got plenty out of him, and as for the rest of the 2006 draft, they got
a few good years out of offensive guard Willie Colon.
I lean toward this move working out for the Steelers, as
they got a fair amount in return and didn't put themselves into a bad situation
with the move up the board. Good move.
2007: Jets trade up the 14th overall pick.
The New York Jets were frequent draft-day moves during the
Mike Tannebaum years, and 2007 was no exception. On draft day, the Jets sent
their first-, second, and fifth-round picks to the Carolina Panthers for
Carolina's first- and sixth-round selections. When the draft was over, the Jets
made four draft-day selections, and their first-round prize is another guy you
probably know about: cornerback Darrelle Revis.
Tannebaum's propensity for moving up the board didn't always
work out for him (we'll get to more of that later), but the Jets finished 4-12
that year, then had three straight winning seasons, two with trips to the AFC
title game. Revis turned into one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, but became
known for wanting to maximize his contract value, which ultimately led to the
Jets dealing him to Tampa Bay for a first-round pick in 2013. Things have come
full circle, though, as Revis signed with the Jets as a free agent this
offseason.
As for the rest of the 2007 draft, the Jets got plenty out
of linebacker David Harris, so it wasn't as if that draft really decimated the
Jets' long-term prospects. So I lean toward this being a move that worked out
for the Jets. Good
move.
2007: Broncos trade up for the 17th overall pick.
The Denver Broncos were entering their final years under
Mike Shanahan, and the longtime Broncos coach was desperate to get back into
the playoffs. So he sent first-, third-, and sixth-round picks to the
Jacksonville Jaguars to move up in the first round to select defensive end
Jarvis Moss. After the draft was over, the Broncos had made four selections.
The events that unfolded make this draft-day move one of the
worst moves -- if not THE worst move -- up the board in Broncos history. The Broncos
endured two mediocre seasons before Shanahan was fired, housecleaning ensued
under Josh McDaniels (who had one mediocre and one bad season before departing), and history told everyone that the Broncos were only just
a few players away from being a playoff team because the AFC West as a whole
was mediocre to begin with. Moss had just 3.5 sacks in his first three seasons
with Denver, and he played nine games in 2010 before being cut.
The rest of the 2007 draft didn't go so well, either, as
offensive tackle Ryan Harris was the only player who became a key contributor.
Marcus Thomas did provide us with this highlight as
a depth player, but the long-term effects of Shanahan's draft-day move make it
clear there's only one grade to give: Bad move.
2008: Jaguars trade up for the 8th overall pick.
The two draft-day moves for 2008 I'll review are related, as
each involve the Baltimore Ravens. They provide an exercise of the difference
between good teams and bad teams.
Let's get back to the Jacksonville Jaguars: They sent the
26th overall pick, plus two third-round and one fourth-round pick, to move up for
the top-10 pick. Smith's selection was defensive end Derrick Harvey. The
Jaguars finished the draft with five selections.
The Jaguars were coming off an 11-5 season, so no doubt they
were thinking they were just a few players away from a Super Bowl. Instead, the
Jaguars finished 5-11, and since that time, have had one .500 season and losing
seasons otherwise. Harvey never became an impact player, getting just eight
sacks in three seasons with the Jaguars before being waived. On top of that,
they got nothing out of their other five picks, other than a fifth-round pick
in a 2010 trade for 2008 second-round selection Quentin Groves.
The evidence is clear on this one: Bad move.
2008: Ravens trade up for the 18th overall pick.
So let's go back to that trade the Baltimore Ravens made
with the Jaguars: The Ravens moved down from the eighth spot to the 26th spot
in the first round, then made a deal with the Texans to move up to the 18th spot.
The Ravens sent the 26th overall pick, one of the third rounders they acquired
from Jacksonville, and their own sixth-round pick. Once again, the player
selected is one you probably know: Joe Flacco. The Ravens made 10 total
selections in the draft.
The Ravens went the opposite direction of the Jaguars. They
went from 5-11 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008 and have not had a losing record since.
Oh yeah, they also won a Super Bowl to close the 2012 season. One can argue whether or not
Flacco is an elite quarterback, but he's certainly proved to be a QB the Ravens
can build around. And the Ravens did get some mileage out of their 2008
second-round pick, Ray Rice.
The Ravens' wheeling and dealing in the 2008 draft is an
example of how good Ozzie Newsome usually is in manipulating the draft board.
He got plenty in return for a move down the board, and it allowed him to safely
move back up the board for a player he wanted. This one is easy to judge: Good
move.
(Note: More reviews of draft day moves in Part Two.)
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