Going over a few items from the past couple of days
pertaining to the NFL offseason:
* The Buffalo Bills traded for Matt Cassel, giving them
their likely starting quarterback for the 2015 season. The trade does make
sense from the Bills' perspective -- they did send a fifth-round pick to
Minnesota, but got a sixth-round pick back, so they'll still have six total
picks, and the seventh-round pick in 2016 may be inconsequential, as they
should get a compensatory pick that season, given that they will lose a couple
of key free agents (notably Jerry Hughes).
Additionally, by trading for Cassel, not only do they avoid
competing with other QB-needy teams for Cassel's services (it's likely the Vikings would have released Cassel if he hadn't been traded), they don't have to
worry about giving him a signing bonus and thus, if Cassel doesn't pan out,
they'll just let him depart without any dead money against the cap.
The only issue with Cassel is whether or not he will be the
right fit for the offense the Bills want to run. I know some fans will point to
Cassel putting up big numbers in the past, but he has just two seasons doing
that. The first, of course, came with New England, and we all know Cassel's
production had more to do with the Patriots having a consistent system in
place, and coordinator changes only meant a few tweaks. The second came with Kansas City in 2010, a season in which
Jamaal Charles averaged 6.4 yards per carry. That might indicate Cassel can be
productive with a quality running back, except for one problem: Charles averaged
5.3 yards per carry in 2012, but Cassel threw for just 1,796 yards with six
touchdowns and 12 picks.
It's understandable why the Bills made the move -- and it's
certainly a better move than giving $6.25 million in full guarantees to Josh
McCown. But it remains to be seen if Cassel can be the QB who gets the Bills to
the playoffs.
* The pay cut Peyton Manning took has nothing to do with
ensuring the Denver Broncos don't lose key free agents. It has more to do with
the fact that Manning is coming off a quad injury that affected his play down
the stretch, and the question as to whether or not he can recover enough to get
the Broncos back to the Super Bowl.
Converting $4 million into incentives based on whether the
Broncos when the AFC title and the Super Bowl allows the Broncos to push the
cap hit into 2016, at which point they can gain considerable space should
Manning retire.
As far as retaining free agents, that has far less to do
with the total amount of money the players and their agents are seeking, and
more likely to do with how much in fully guaranteed money they will get. Let's
sum up a few terms regarding money a player gets when he signs a contract.
- Fully guaranteed: The player gets the money no matter what
happens to him in the future. Signing bonuses are always fully guaranteed.
- Injury-only guaranteed: The player will get the money if
he is cut for an injury- or health-related reason, but not for
performance-related reasons.
- Not guaranteed: If the player is cut, he doesn't get the
money, regardless of why he is cut.
Since John Elway took over team operations, the only players
the Broncos have given fully guaranteed money for more than one season are
DeMarcus Ware and Peyton Manning -- and in Manning's case, there were
conditions that had to be met before the full guarantees kicked in after the
first year of the contract. Ryan Clady, considered one of the best left tackles
in the NFL, received just one year of full guarantees.
With that said, Clady's deal was effectively a two-year deal
because of how the contract was structured. But when agents want to attract
players or talk about the deals they got clients, they aren't interested in
contract structure, but the guaranteed money, and particularly the full
guarantees.
This likely is the issue with Julius Thomas, whose agent can
point to players such as Dennis Pitta and Jared Cook getting fully guaranteed
money (even if it's not a large sum) beyond the first year of their deals. The
Broncos are not likely to budge from their philosophy, as they can point to
Clady's contract and say Julius Thomas is no different. They don't have to talk
about JT's injury history. All they have to do is ask, if Clady took just one
year of full guarantees, why shouldn't Julius do the same?
* The news that the New Orleans Saints are shopping around
Curtis Lofton should not be surprising. When the NFL announced the cap for the
2015 season, the Saints were $22 million over the cap.
They did restructure Jarius Byrd's contract, but that isn't
enough by itself. Neither is trading Lofton, nor is the recent release of
Pierre Thomas. Several more players are likely to be cut, and others will have
to restructure their deals, just to give New Orleans enough space to pay their
draft picks and rookie free agents.
The Saints no doubt have the mindset they can still contend
for the playoffs, but given how bad their cap situation is, they need to be
more realistic. The team is about to enter a rebuilding phase and simply can't
keep committing money to top players. Their lineup will certainly look
different this season, likely with a lot of young players in the fold. It would
be a shock to see the Saints land any top free agent this offseason -- and if
they do pull off such a shocker, all they are going to do is make their cap
situation worse in future seasons.
For those that want to get an idea about the Saints' cap
situation, you can go to Over the Cap's cap calculator page. Even if you don't
understand all there is to know about contract structuring, you'll quickly find
out just how difficult it is for the Saints to get out of their situation and
still keep together a roster that allows it to make a playoff push.
And while it might be easy to say that the Saints play in a
weak division, who is to say that Carolina won't make another strong push or
that the Falcons won't improve? The road to the NFC South title might not be as
easy as people may think.
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