Denver Broncos fans knew going into the 2015 offseason that
the Broncos had a lot of key players who were set to hit free agency. Four of
the bigger names (Orlando Franklin, Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Rahim
Moore) have headed off elsewhere, while the Broncos' free agency moves have
mostly focused on lower-priced players, leading to silly questions like the one that led off Andrew Mason's most recent mailbag.
The Broncos fans asking this question no doubt remember what
happened last season, when the Broncos seemed to be the landing spot for a lot
of the big names in free agency. DeMarcus Ware! Aqib Talib! T.J. Ward! Emmanuel
Sanders! Look at all the money the Broncos are spending!
And, of course, this led to the narrative that John Elway
was going "all in" for a Super Bowl win. So, the narrative continues,
Elway better go "all in" this season now that Peyton Manning is
coming back for another season, because time is running out!
But the truth is, Elway has approached free agency
cautiously, and does not just blindly throw money around. Last season might
seem like an exception, but not exactly. Let's take a stroll down Memory Lane
and see exactly how Elway approached free agency.
2011: The first season Elway was making personnel decisions,
he faced the same situation everyone else did: The collective bargaining
agreement expired and teams had to wait until a new agreement was reached
before free agency could begin. Teams could re-sign their own players prior to
the end of the 2010 league year, and the draft took place as usual, but that was
it until August.
Elway did make a big move in retaining one of the Broncos'
own, as Champ Bailey re-signed for four years at $43 million, with $22 million
guaranteed... certainly not a sign of the Broncos being cheap. Once the new CBA took effect, some Broncos fans expected Elway to
start rushing into free agency to grab anybody he could. Instead, he gave a
low-cost deal to Willis McGahee (four years, $9.5M, $3M guaranteed), a
short-term deal to Ty Warren (two years, $10M, $2.5M guaranteed), and traded a
late-round pick for Broderick Bunkley. That doesn't sound like somebody making
a splash in free agency, does it?
It's fair to point out the Warren signing
didn't pan out, but even then, it was just $2.5 million the Broncos had no choice but to pay
him, and in Warren's second season, he had to take a pay cut to stay with the team.
McGahee, though, exceeded expectations, and
Bunkley played very well in his single season with the team. McGahee and
Bunkley were the first two instances of Elway finding value in a player.
2012: Everyone knows about Elway courting Peyton Manning and
that Manning ultimately chose the Broncos. But while Manning was taking his
time making a decision, the only other free agency move Elway made was signing
Mike Adams to a two-year, $4M contract. And I can remember Broncos fans getting
impatient, wondering what would happen if Manning spurned the Broncos and left
Elway with nothing.
After Manning agreed to terms with Denver, and certainly got
compensated well (five years, $96M, $18M fully guaranteed after passing his
physical -- and he has collected more money since), that compensation included conditions pertaining to Manning's neck
and passing future physicals. And after that, the free agents who came to the
Broncos were noteworthy more because of a certain connection. Jacob Tamme (three
years, $9M, $3.5M guaranteed) was the teammate of Manning who followed him to
Denver. Tracy Porter (one year, $4M) was the guy who had a pick six of Manning
in a Super Bowl. And Joel Dreessen (three years, $8.5M) was a Colorado native
and Colorado State University graduate.
But Manning aside, every free agent Elway signed was, once
again, a value signing. And of those free agents, Porter was the only one who
didn't pan out, and his was just a one-year deal. Once again, Elway wasn't
going around committing top dollar to a bunch of players, even as he focused on
one big-ticket player.
2013: This offseason was most noteworthy for the guy Elway
signed away from a conference rival: Wes Welker. Of course, given that Peyton
Manning vs. Tom Brady is the QB showdown everyone talks about, it wouldn't
matter which favorite target of either QB was signed away by the other team --
it would have drawn headlines, because Manning vs. Brady. Then again, the money
Welker got (two years, $12M), while not exactly cheap, was far less than what
some expected Welker to get.
Meanwhile, Elway signed offensive guard Louis Vasquez for
four years at $23M, with $10M guaranteed. Again, that's not a cheap contract,
but the average of $5.875M per year looks pretty good compared to the likes of
Jahri Evans ($8M APY), Logan Mankins ($8.5M APY), and Andy Levitre ($7.8M APY),
all players who were considered to be better than Vasquez at the time Vasquez
agreed to terms with the Broncos.
Elway also gave $5M to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but it
was a one-year deal, not the long-term commitment DRC was no doubt expecting.
And then comes Elway's steal of free agency, as he paid a mere $4M over two
years to Terrance Knighton.
As far as going out and spending a good chunk of change,
Elway did that with one player. Ryan Clady was given the franchise tag when the
2013 offseason began, then ultimately agreed to a five-year, $52.5M contract,
with $15M fully guaranteed, and an additional $16.5M in injury-only guaranteed,
plus a $1.5M roster bonus that happens to be due this season. Since it appears likely Clady will stay with the
Broncos through 2015, that means he'll collect $33 million in salary. Sarcasm
alert: THE BRONCOS ARE BEING SO CHEAP.
Back to seriousness: What Elway did was reward one of the
Broncos' better players, limited a long-term free agent deal to Vasquez, and
kept the others on short-term deals, one which proved to be excellent value
(Knighton), and the other three proving to be pretty good value for what they were paid. Elway's strategy should be pretty evident by now.
2014: Okay, so this is the year in which Elway was, on the surface, freely
spending money. DeMarcus Ware's three-year deal was for $30M, and he'll get
$20M of that for sure. Aqib Talib's six-year deal was for $57M, and he will get
$17.5M of that so far. T.J. Ward got $22.5M over four years, of which he will
receive $13.5M. And Emmanuel Sanders got $15M over three years, of which $6M
was guaranteed.
However, a closer look tells us a few things. First, Sanders
was a value signing, as the $6M guaranteed he got is the most the Broncos will
pay him in a single season. He'll collect $4.85M in base salary this year and
$5M next year -- a bargain for a veteran No. 2 receiver. Then there's Ward,
whose average salary per year isn't even in the top 10 among safeties. And I'm
sure every Bronco fan would rather have Ward than, for example, Jairus Byrd,
who averages $9M per year (and happened to be a free agent the same offseason
Ward was).
Then we come to Ware, who the Broncos certainly committed a
lot of cash to, but they can cut Ware after the 2015 season and not owe him
another penny. It is fair, though, for people to say that the Broncos made a
massive commitment to Ware, in which they were effectively tied to him for two
years at $20 million.
That isn't exactly the case with Talib, who the Broncos
could have cut after 2014 if things didn't work out, and not owe him another
penny. That's because Talib's 2015 salary was guaranteed for injury only, and
the Broncos would owe him nothing had he been cut for any other reason. He is
still on the payroll, so yes, the Broncos owe him another $6 million ($5.5M base, $500,000 roster bonus). Next
season, his $8.5M base salary is an injury-only guarantee, so the Broncos could
cut him for performance-related reasons and not owe him anything. If that were
to happen, Talib doesn't even collect one-third of the total money in his
contract.
Once again, the strategy Elway employed is clear: Look for
value in a player and protect yourself when it comes to a long-term commitment
-- and in the case of looking for value, Sanders and Ward certainly proved to
be value finds.
2015: Yes, it's tough to see Julius Thomas and Orlando
Franklin depart because other teams offered big-money deals. Yes, the Broncos
might have misjudged the market when Knighton and Rahim Moore took value deals
elsewhere. I can understand Broncos fans criticizing Elway for not retaining
Knighton and Moore when the teams who signed them didn't pay a lot of money to
do so.
But let's not forget Elway went out of his way to retain
Chris Harris, who got five years and $42.5M in an extension he signed back in
December, of which at least $10M was fully guaranteed. Along with Clady, the
Broncos ultimately extended Matt Prater after placing the franchise tag on him,
so there's a good chance they will do the same with Demaryius Thomas.
And then there's a guy by the name of Von Miller, who enters
the option year of his rookie contract at $9.75M. The Broncos could always opt
to let him play out that year, then place the franchise tag on him next season.
But if Miller puts together a strong 2015, it wouldn't be surprising to see
Elway become more aggressive in getting him signed to a long-term deal, much
like he did with Harris once he saw the cornerback had fully recovered from an
ACL injury.
As for the other signings, Elway seems more concerned with
getting value from the likes of Owen Daniels (three years, $12M, $3M
guaranteed), Vance Walker (two years, $4M -- hmm, sound familiar?), Shelley
Smith (two years, $5.65M) and Darian Stewart (terms not yet released, but
likely a low-cost signing). The same holds true for the re-signing of Virgil
Green (three years, $8.4M, $2.5M fully guaranteed).
The perception that the Broncos are being cheap, simply
based on what they did last season, is silly. Many of the Broncos' best free
agent signings have been in the value department (McGahee, Adams, Knighton,
Sanders, Ward, arguably Vasquez) while the biggest contracts either went to
retaining Broncos (Bailey, Clady, Harris) or to players considered elite at
their position (Manning, Ware, Talib), but contained provisions to ensure the
Broncos weren't tied down to the players for too long.
The strategy has worked thus far for Elway, as the Broncos
have never missed the playoffs since he took over team operations. Maybe
Broncos fans who accuse him of being cheap, need to admit that, regarding free agency, he may actually know
what he is doing.
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