It was just a few years ago that people were wondering why the
Denver Broncos would want to trade a franchise quarterback.
Fast forward to today, and that franchise quarterback has
been benched for Jimmy Clausen and may be on the move again.
The decision to replace Chicago Bears starting quarterback
with Clausen would appear to signal the end of Cutler's tenure with the Bears.
Cutler's story has been that of a quarterback who has plenty of talent, but has
never been able to reach his potential.
Still, this was a player whom the Bears rewarded with a
contract that gave him $38 million in fully guaranteed money for the 2014 and
2015 seasons. If he remains with the Bears by the third day of the 2015 league
year, he gets an additional $10 million in full guarantees for 2016. It remains
a head-scratching deal for a quarterback who has been inconsistent throughout
his career and, while he and the Bears did reach the NFC championship game in
the 2010 season, he has no other playoff trips.
One might argue, at the time Cutler signed his new contract,
that there weren't any better options available. Still, the Bears could have
protected themselves with a contract that fully guaranteed his 2014 salary,
then made his 2015 and 2016 salaries guaranteed for injury only.
But that aside, given that the Bears would take too great a
cap hit by releasing Cutler after this season, and would still have to pay him
$15.5 million, it means that their only option is to trade him. A trade would
likely mean the Bears would have to agree to pay a portion of his 2015 salary.
The Bears would also have to accept that they would, at the most, get a 2015
second-round pick and a quarterback in return, and might get a conditional pick
in 2016 (said pick would be on the condition that the team who acquires Cutler makes the playoffs in 2015).
But who would be the suitors? There are a few teams who
could be in the market for a quarterback next season, so let's go over them,
from least likely to most likely.
Miami: There is some talk that the Dolphins might want to
upgrade at quarterback in hopes of making that final push to the playoffs. And
Ryan Tannehill would certainly be an attractive option for the Bears. However,
the Dolphins are projected to be slightly over the cap next season (about $2.6
million) and would have to make a lot of moves to fit Cutler's deal under the
cap. Since that would mean cutting some players who could help the Dolphins
with a playoff push, trading for Cutler would be counterproductive. I think you
can safely scratch the Dolphins from the list of suitors.
Philadelphia: The Eagles are a playoff contender that has
some question marks at the quarterback position. Nick Foles regressed from last
season, prior to his injury, and Mark Sanchez continues to be inconsistent.
Philly would be an attractive landing spot for Cutler, as he would join a
playoff contender with some good talent in place. And if the Bears get Foles,
they would have a solid, young QB. The issue for the Eagles is their cap space
is tight, projected at slightly less than $4 million. Philly might be able to
free up some space by restructuring contracts, but failing that, they'd have to
release some players. The question is whether or not Philly would feel
comfortable doing that, and if they truly believe that Chip Kelly can correct
Cutler's issues at quarterback enough to compensate for any players they part
ways with. Call the Eagles a remote possibility.
St. Louis: The Rams make sense on the surface, given that
Jeff Fisher supposedly liked Cutler in the 2006 NFL draft, before being pushed
toward Vince Young. There is also a good amount of talent on the Rams, and they
most certainly need a better QB, unless they really believe Sam Bradford should
get one more season to prove himself. Again, though, the Rams are tight on
projected cap space (about $5.3 million), although parting ways with Bradford
would free up a lot of space -- but maybe not enough for them to accommodate Cutler's
contract and still allow space for draft picks and low-cost free
agents. The Rams may be more likely to pursue lower-cost options at QB. As with the Eagles, the Rams are a remote possibility.
Houston: The Texans certainly have the talent in place and a
good quarterback could boost their chances of reaching the playoffs next year.
Houston is projected to have $10 million in cap space, but could get some
wiggle room by either cutting Ryan Fitzpatrick or including him in a trade with
the Bears (Fitzpatrick would at least give Chicago a short-term solution). It's
possible Andre Johnson could agree to restructure his deal if he believes
Cutler could get the Texans back into the playoffs, and Houston could also cut
underachieving cornerback Jonathan Joseph. Questions to answer, though, may be whether or
not Bill O'Brien believes he can get the most out of Cutler, and if the Bears
would be OK with Fitzpatrick in 2015. Call it a 50-50 chance.
Buffalo: The Bills have a lot of pieces in place except for
one: A quarterback who can put them over the top. The irony of such a trade is
that Kyle Orton would enter the picture again... if you recall, the Broncos
acquired Orton as part of their Cutler trade. That doesn't mean Orton would be
sent to Chicago, although it's not out of the question. It might also be the
chance for the Bills to unload EJ Manuel and allow the former first-round pick
a fresh start. The Bills, though, would have to do some maneuvering with the
cap (they are projected to be $16 million under), and they might prefer to use
that cap space to re-signing pending free agents, most notably defensive end Jerry Hughes. As
with the Texans, it looks like a 50-50 chance that Cutler goes to Buffalo.
Washington: We have all heard the stories about Dan Snyder
and his love for making splashy moves. And as we all remember, Washington was
close to acquiring Cutler back in 2008, when the Bears entered the picture and
things unfolded differently. Washington's cap space is projected at $16
million, but Snyder has never been too worried about fitting name players under
the cap. As for the Bears, they could get Robert Griffin III as part of the
deal and choose not to pick up his 2016 option, while finding out if RG3 can
resurrect his career. The only question, though, is whether or not Washington's
past flirtations with Cutler were rooted in the idea that Mike Shanahan would
coach the team, and we all know that's not happening again. A good, but not
great, chance that Cutler ends up in Washington.
Cleveland: It's pretty clear that Brian Hoyer isn't the
answer at quarterback, and now some doubts are creeping in about whether or not
Johnny Manziel is the long-term solution, even though Manziel has just one NFL
start under his belt. Some in Cleveland might think that acquiring Cutler would
push the Browns into the playoff hunt, especially because the Browns will have
two first-round picks in 2015 to address immediate needs. Combine that with some players who
will return from injury (most notable, center Alex Mack), and an offensive
coordinator who might know what to do with Cutler (Kyle Shanahan, Mike's son),
and it would appear to be a good fit. The wild card in this situation is
obviously Manziel, who would likely become part of the trade package. But would
the Browns be that quick to declare the Manziel experiment is already over? And
would the Bears be welcoming of Johnny Football into their environment? Another
good, but not great, chance of this happening.
Tennessee: We have heard stories about how Ken Whisenhunt is
good at working with quarterbacks, although he hasn't gotten much out of the passers he has in Tennessee. For all of Cutler's faults, he's certainly a better
quarterback than any of the passers the Titans currently have. Tennessee is in
position to finish with the second overall pick in the draft, meaning they may
be forced to decide whichever QB that doesn't go first overall (whether that's Marcus
Mariota or Jameis Winston) is worth selecting. That could make them consider
trading for Cutler, and they will have the cap space to accommodate his deal.
With Tennessee, though, there really isn't a QB that would be worth it for
Chicago to acquire in a trade, so the Titans might have to throw in a
late-round pick in 2015. That alone shouldn't keep the Titans from being one of
the more likely landing spots for Cutler, though.
Tampa Bay: Cutler played under head coach Lovie Smith for
several years -- and, hey, the Bears could bring back Josh McCown! Seriously, the
Buccaneers are definitely in the market
for a quarterback, and if they do get the No. 1 overall pick, who knows if they
would be sold on Mariota or Winston. If the Bucs finish with the No. 1 overall
pick, and were to acquire Cutler, they could then offer the top pick to the
highest bidder. The Bucs do have the cap space to acquire Cutler, and while
it's not a given that they would send McCown to the Bears, they could offer
Mike Glennon, a very low-cost option. On top of that, the NFC South was a weak
division this year and acquiring the right quarterback could thrust Tampa Bay to
the top. Finally, Tampa Bay did inquire about Cutler back in 2008. The only
question is whether the Bucs will prefer to build around a younger QB. But the
chances of Cutler going to Tampa Bay are very good.
New York Jets: And here we go... we all know about how Woody
Johnson wants the Jets to be the center of attention and to get back to the
playoffs again. And look at all that cap space the Jets have. And consider that
their chances of finishing with one of the top two picks are slim, and a couple
of teams who may finish ahead of them in the 2015 draft, happen to need
quarterbacks. What better way for Woody Johnson to make headlines and fill a
pressing need than to acquire Jay Cutler? Of course, you have to remember that
John Izdik is the general manager and would probably not want to bite the
bullet on such a trade. But if Izdik is fired, Johnson could instead choose to
bring in a GM who wants to spend that cap space. The Jets could offer Geno
Smith in return as part of the deal, with the idea that Smith could benefit
from a fresh start in Chicago. Even if Izdik sticks around, he could be
under pressure to make a bold move, and acquiring Cutler would be just that.
It's not a lock that Cutler would go to the Jets this offseason, but given the
circumstances surrounding this team, the Jets would be the least surprising
team to acquire him.
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