Denver Broncos fans have been used to John Elway making
headlines with his moves in free agency. In past seasons, he has brought in the
likes of Peyton Manning, Wes Welker, DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib, all
high-profile names.
The chances that it happens again this offseason are slim,
not because cap space is tight or because the Broncos spent so much money in
past years, but because the priority will be to get pending free agents
re-signed.
There is concern among some fans that the Broncos might lose
a lot of players in free agency, especially because teams such as the Jets, the
Raiders and the Jaguars will enter the 2015 offseason with a lot of cap space.
Per estimates from Over the Cap, with a projected cap of about $140 million for
2015, the Raiders will have $54.8 million in space, the Jags will have $44
million and the Jets $41.1 million.
The Broncos are not in a tight cap situation, though,
as Over the Cap estimates the team's space to be $32 million. That's actually
plenty of space to get a few players re-signed, while still allowing the
Broncos to add a low-cost free agent or two, then sign their draft players and
a few rookie free agents.
To get an idea about what the Broncos can do to retain their
top free agents, you can visit Over the Cap's salary cap calculator and play
around with it. Keep in mind that in order to keep the players you want to
retain, you must consider the following:
* Which players to cut to free up cap space.
* Which players to restructure deals, converting base salary
and roster bonuses into signing bonuses, giving you more cap room to work with
now, while pushing some of the hit down the road.
* Which players are the priority to re-sign and how to
structure their deals.
* Which player, if any, you should place the franchise tag
on, with the possibility of signing that player to an extension.
I put together a list of moves that the Broncos can make to
gain additional cap space, then determined which players were the priority to
extend and which player to franchise, then went from there to determine what needs
are to be filled in free agency elsewhere or in the draft. For players who are
given extensions, I provided the breakdowns of their contracts, to give
everyone the idea about how to structure a contract to make it cap friendly.
Start with the Broncos
having $32 million in cap space.
THE CUTS
Cut Britton Colquitt
to save $2.25 million in cap space.
This is an obvious move to make. Colquitt would be due a $3
million base salary, which is way too much considering how much he has
underachieved the past two seasons. He will turn 30 next year, so it's not
likely the Broncos would re-sign him for less money, even if he is willing to
take it.
The cap space rises
from $32 million to $34.2 million.
Cut Andre Caldwell,
saving $1.35 million in cap space.
It should be safe to cut Caldwell, even though the Broncos
have two wide receivers who will be free agents. They drafted Cody Latimer and
will get Jordan Norwood back, and Norwood comes at a lower salary. Plus the
Broncos could find a wide receiver who can play special teams through free
agency and likely get him for less money than Caldwell would cost.
The cap space rises
from $34.2 million to $35.6 million.
Cut Manny Ramirez to
save $2.3 million in cap space.
Ramirez turns 32 next year, has regressed this season and is
not worth a $2.4 million cap hit at this point. The Broncos could find better
options in free agency, or perhaps Ben Garland will be ready to take over as a
starter.
The cap space rises
from $35.6 million to $37.9 million.
THE RESTRUCTURES
Restructure Ryan
Clady's contract, by converting his $1.5 million roster bonus and $5 million of
his base salary into a $6.5 million signing bonus. Clady would still receive a
$3.5 million base salary, fully guaranteed.
When you restructure a contract, you are not cutting the
player's salary, but converting base salary and any roster bonuses into a
signing bonus, which you can then spread out over the remaining years of the
contract. The player benefits because he is given a lump sum of fully
guaranteed money, and the team benefits by gaining cap space.
Clady would still get his money in full for 2015, with the
only difference being how much is in the form of a signing bonus, so there
should not be any issues with getting him to agree to restructure. If Clady
doesn't agree to this restructure, he is very likely to be cut, so it would
make more sense for Clady to agree to restructure, ensuring he gets the $10
million in money he is set to make. If he were cut, it's highly unlikely
another team will give him $10 million for the 2015 season.
The cap space rises
from $37.9 million to $42.2 million.
Restructure/extend
Louis Vasquez's contract, by converting $4 million of his $5 million base
salary into a signing bonus, and giving him an additional year on his contract
into 2017 for $5.5 million (not guaranteed).
A restructure with a one-year extension would benefit
Vasquez, because the $5 million in base salary is not fully guaranteed, but
converting much of that into a signing bonus gives him fully guaranteed money
for the 2015 season. Because he has been one of Denver's better linemen, and
will still be in the prime of his career, it makes sense to add a year to his
deal, at the same amount he is set to make in 2016. The Broncos, meanwhile,
benefit from additional cap relief.
The cap space rises
from $42.2 million to $44.9 million.
THE TENDERS
No tenders will be
extended to Tony Carter or John Youboty.
It's clear that Carter is not going to be with the Broncos
next season. As for Youboty, the Broncos are in good shape at defensive end, so
they don't absolutely need to keep Youboty. They can always find undrafted
rookies they could sign to provide competition for training camp.
Original round RFA
tenders and/or ERFA tenders to Ben Garland, Paul Cornick, Brandon Marshall,
Steven Johnson and Aaron Brewer.
First of all, I am hearing different stories regarding LB
Brandon Marshall, with some saying that he is a restricted free agent, while
others say he is an exclusive rights free agent. Regardless, it's clear the
Broncos need to tender him. Assuming he is an RFA, an original round tender is
$1.33 million.
As for the others, Garland and Cornick are ERFAs, while
Johnson and Brewer are RFAs. I think the Broncos will want to keep Garland and
Cornick because of their familiarity with what the Broncos do. Johnson
is a quality depth and special teams player who is worth an original round
tender, and Brewer has been a good long snapper. I doubt either player will be
highly coveted by other teams, so an original round tender for both makes
sense.
The tenders reduce the
cap space from $44.9 million to $39.9 million.
THE EXTENSIONS
Here I will focus on the players who the
Broncos should re-sign. These are the players in which the Broncos will need to
do a good job of structuring contracts and signing bonuses to make them cap
friendly, while still rewarding each player with a pay increase worthy of their
overall play.
Re-sign Chris Harris to
a five-year, $65 million contract. The contract would include an $11 million
signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of $1.5
million. He would have 2016 and 2017 salaries of $11 million and $12 million,
guaranteed for injury only, becoming fully guaranteed if he's on the roster on
a certain date.
I examined the contracts for Joe Haden, Richard Sherman and
Patrick Peterson to get an idea about how the Broncos can structure Harris'
contract. Here's what the structure would look like.
Year Base Salary Prorated Cap Hit Dead
Money Cap Savings
2015 $1.5M $2.2M $3.7M $12.5M ($8.8M)
2016 $11M $2.2M $13.2M $8.8M $4.4M
2017 $12M $2.2M $14.2M $6.6M $7.6M
2018 $14.5M $2.2M $16.7M $4.4M $12.3M
2019 $15M $2.2M $17.2M $2.2M $15M
As you can see, the years in which Harris' contract would
take the greatest hit are pushed down the road when the cap is expected to rise
further. Harris benefits by getting $12.5 million in fully guaranteed money,
and in the next two seasons, he can ensure himself that money by continuing to
perform at the high level he has shown. In 2018, the Broncos can decide whether
or not to restructure/extend his deal to get cap relief and reward him again
with fully guaranteed money.
This contact reduces
the cap space from $39.9 million to $36.2 million.
Re-sign Demaryius
Thomas to a five-year, $70 million contract. The contract would include a $14
million signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of
$1 million. He would have 2016 and 2017 salaries of $13 million each year,
guaranteed for injury only, becoming fully guaranteed if he's on the roster on
a certain date.
I used the contracts that Mike Wallace and Percy Harvin
recently signed as baselines, but took into account that Thomas is deserving of
more money than either of those receivers. I figure that an average salary per
year of $14 million is what he will command, as that would put him among the
top five salaries for wide receivers. Here is the contract structure.
Year Base Salary Prorated Cap Hit Dead
Money Cap Savings
2015 $1M $2.8M $3.8M $15M ($11.2M)
2016 $13M $2.8M $15.8M $11.2M $4.6M
2017 $13M $2.8M $15.8M $8.4M $7.4M
2018 $14M $2.8M $16.8M $5.6M $11.2M
2019 $15M $2.8M $17.8M $2.8M $15M
Again, the largest figures in the contract are pushed down
to the final two years, plus Thomas can ensure himself a large portion of the
contract by continuing to perform at a high level. As with Harris, the Broncos
can decide what to do with Thomas in 2018.
This contract
extension reduces the cap space from $36.2 million to $32.4 million.
Re-sign Orlando
Franklin to a four-year, $21 million contract. The contract would include a $4
million signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of
$1 million. His 2016 salary of $5 million is guaranteed for injury only,
becoming fully guaranteed if he's on the roster on a certain date.
I looked at Louis Vasquez, who got a similar deal, only with
slightly more total money ($23 million). Franklin might have to take less
money, but such a contract would still reward him well, especially because he
has never made more than $1 million in a single season. Here is the structure for this contract.
Year Base Salary Prorated Cap Hit Dead
Money Cap Savings
2015 $1M $1M $2M $5M ($3M)
2016 $5M $1M $6M $3M $3M
2017 $5M $1M $6M $2M $4M
2018 $6M $1M $7M $1M $6M
This contract extension
reduces the cap space from $32.4 million to $30.4 million.
Re-sign Terrance
Knighton to a three-year, $18 million contract. The contract would include a $5
million signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of
$1 million. In 2016, he would receive a $1.5 million roster bonus, along with a
$3.5 million base salary, if he is on the roster on a certain date.
Certainly the Broncos will want to reward Knighton for his
play, but he's not likely to get as much as some may think, because his quality
of play has been tied so much to the presence of Jack Del Rio. Additionally, he
will turn 29 next season, so you have to be careful how much money you commit
to him.
I believe a three-year deal that will guarantee Knighton $6
million for 2015, and the incentive to earn an additional $5 million in 2016,
will be worth it to Knighton, given that he was paid just $4 million in the
past two seasons. Here is the contract structure.
Year Base Salary Prorated Cap Hit Dead
Money Cap Savings
2015 $1M $1.66M $2.66M $6M ($3.33M)
2016 $3.5M ($1.5M
B) $1.66M $6.66M $3.33M $3.33M
2017 $7M $1.66M $8.66M $1.66M $7M
This contract
extension reduces the cap space from $30.4 million to $27.7 million.
Re-sign Virgil Green
to a three-year, $4.5 million contract. The contract would include a $1.2
million signing bonus.
Green has been invaluable as a blocking tight end and
special teams player. I used David Bruton's contract as the guideline, because
Bruton has also been a quality special teams player and has similar value to
Green. Here is the contract structure.
Year Base Salary Prorated Cap Hit Dead
Money Cap Savings
2015 $800K $400K $1.2M $1.2M $0
2016 $1.25M $400K $1.65M $800K $850K
2017 $1.25M $400K $1.65M $400K $1.25M
This contract extension reduces the cap space from $27.7
million to $26.5 million.
THE FRANCHISE TAG
Place the franchise
tag on Julius Thomas, which is roughly $8 million. Given that Thomas is not
a good blocking tight end, it doesn't make sense to extend him right away.
Players such as Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are not only top pass-catching
tight ends, but they are very good at blocking. Better to put the tag on Thomas
for the 2015 season and then re-evaluate. Using
the tag on Julius Thomas reduces the cap space to $18.5 million.
THE REST
As for what to do with the remainder of free agents and other areas of focus, here is
what I would do.
* Possibly re-sign: Will Montgomery could be brought back to
be the center if a better option cannot be found. Nate Irving and Rahim Moore
might be worth retaining, but both would have to take low-cost deals for not
more than two years and I would not give them a lot of guaranteed money.
* Don't re-sign: Wes Welker is aging and declining, so he is
not worth keeping. Quinton Carter is good in coverage but a poor tackler and
the Broncos should consider other options. Mitch Unrein and Jacob Tamme have
been good for depth and special teams, but the Broncos should be able to fill those spots with younger players through other means.
* Priorities elsewhere in free agency: A center if one can
be found (or bring back Montgomery), a wide receiver who can play special
teams, a free safety if Moore is not brought back.
* Priorities in the draft: The offensive line, with
particular attention to guard and left tackle, plus linebacker, safety and
tight end.
As far as what would need to be done in 2016, it is true the
moves this season would reduce the Broncos' available cap space for that season to
$19 million. But the Broncos might get space freed up if Peyton Manning decides
to retire after the 2015 season, which would free up $19 million in cap space
by itself. Even if he doesn't, the Broncos would likely release Aqib Talib,
especially if Bradley Roby continues improving, which would free up $7 million
in cap space. DeMarcus Ware would likely be released as well, given that the
Broncos could be ready to put Quanterrus Smith into the starting lineup, along
with re-signing Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson. Cutting Ware frees $10 million
in cap space. Finally, if Ryan Clady doesn't improve in 2015, he could be cut
after that season, freeing up $6.7 million in space.
Releasing Talib, Ware and Clady would increase the Broncos'
cap space in 2016 from $19 million to $43.3 million, even if Peyton Manning decides to return
for 2016. That cap space is more than enough to re-sign Von Miller, Danny
Trevathan, Wolfe and Jackson to new deals, and would allow the Broncos a chance
to pursue other free agents.
So it really isn't that difficult for the Broncos to get
their top free agents re-signed. It just requires a wise usage of signing
bonuses and contract restructures, all which can give players a lot of money up
front, while giving the Broncos cap flexibility.
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