I used to be one of those people who assessed a team's draft
solely based on how well they filled their needs. I've changed that approach,
though, because when you do that, you are often looking at immediate needs, not
future needs. Addressing both is part of the team-building process.
Additionally, there's no telling how well any of these
players are going to do. There are countless players who were drafted, who
never lived up to expectations. Grading a draft is like grading a student based
on the material chosen for a research paper. You are making a judgment before you
know what the finished product will look like.
And when it comes to the Denver Broncos, I've found more
often than not that John Elway has been a good judge of talent. His 2011 draft
class was strong, as of his nine picks, seven of them contributed extensively for at least one season. Yet
if someone was handing out draft day grades that year, that someone was wondering why
Elway didn't draft a defensive lineman until the seventh round. But time has
told that Von Miller was very much worth the second overall pick in the draft,
and that the likes of Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin, and Julius Thomas were
worth the picks used.
Elway continued to do well in 2012,with fourth-round pick
Phillip Blake the only real miss. The jury is still out on the 2013 draft
class, but there is hope that Montee Ball can get back on track, that Sylvester
Williams could be the answer at nose tackle, and that Kayvon Webster could take a bigger role in the defense.
With all that said, Elway was wise to not only think about
the future when he moved up in the first round to select defensive end Shane
Ray, but to minimize his risk when he moved up the board. As I discussed last
week, what makes a move up the board wise is when you don't give up too much or
jeopardize your ability to build your team. The Broncos accumulated
compensatory picks this year, so they could afford to part with one fifth-round
pick this year. They will get more comp picks next year, so parting with a 2016
fifth-rounder was fine. And it wasn't likely that offensive guard Manny Ramirez
was going to stick around, so it made sense to include him in the trade
package.
From there, Elway's strategy became clear about looking for
value. Some think offensive tackle Ty Sambrailo was taken a round too early,
but if that's who was at the top of the Broncos' draft board, then that's who
they should have taken if they weren't able to trade down. Always remember this rule of thumb when drafting: Trade down if you can, but if you can't, stick to
your board and don't worry about perceptions of reaching for a player.
I liked the Broncos' pick of tight end Jeff Heuerman in the
third round. Owen Daniels was a good value signing, but he isn't a long-term
solution, and Heuerman will get a couple of years to develop before entering
the starting lineup. Fourth-round pick Max Garcia is a versatile offensive lineman,
and it's clear that Gary Kubiak wants versatility out of most of those players.
Now comes the time when we find out who fits in where. At
this point, we can safely say that Ryan Clady and Louis Vasquez will have the
left tackle and right guard spots nailed down. I wouldn't rule out Michael
Schofield at right tackle just yet -- my hunch is that he will win the starting
job. Meanwhile, Sambrailo can be given time to develop. One thing to keep in
mind: Sambrailo might be a better fit at left tackle, but consider that Clady's
future beyond 2015 is uncertain, and the Broncos might view Sambrailo as the
guy who can replace him. At left guard and center, it remains to be seen who
will emerge, but having multiple players who can handle either position is
better than having multiple players who are a fit at just one position.
Then there's nose tackle, a position many wondered why the
Broncos didn't spent an earlier pick after Terrance Knighton departed in free
agency. Keep in mind that the Broncos aren't giving up on Williams just yet.
He'll enter training camp as the starter, and this season will tell whether or
not the Broncos will want to pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if Marvin Austin can provide the depth behind
him. If not, that's the reason why the Broncos took Darius Kilgo in the sixth
round, to give the Broncos depth, and perhaps a potential starter if Williams
doesn't pan out.
I remain skeptical about certain moves the Broncos didn't
make, such as not doing more to retain Orlando Franklin, and misjudging the
market for Rahim Moore. I didn't care for the Broncos' trade for Gino Gradowski,
in which they sent a fourth-round pick to the Ravens, even if they got a
fifth-round pick back. (Sending a sixth-round pick to Baltimore and getting a
seventh-round pick would have been better.) But, for the most part, the Broncos
minimized their offseason risks.
Looking at some other teams and what they did in the draft:
* The New York Jets did well for themselves. The problem I
saw under John Izdik was that he didn't make it clear enough to fans and
ownership that the team needed to rebuild. More importantly, he retained a head
coach whose mindset was that the Jets just needed to reload. New general
manager Mike Maccagnan started from scratch with the coaching staff and, while
his free agency moves indicated he wanted to reload, his draft showed he was
thinking as much about the future as he was about the present. Leonard Williams
was a great pick, Devin Smith was worth taking to develop behind Brandon
Marshall and Eric Decker, and the trade down with the Texans allowed the Jets
to accumulate more picks, after trading several away earlier in the offseason.
It was a step in the right direction, and perhaps the Jets can get back to
relevancy, as long as Maccagnan continues to project the idea that the team
wants to win now and in the future.
* The Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars are two teams
I see heading in the right direction. Each team was similar in that the
previous regime was making too many mistakes and every mistake kept setting back
the franchise.
Former owner Al Davis had done good things for the Raiders
in the past, but was too stubborn to adjust his approaches, and it led to a
string of poor personnel decisions. His son Mark is not without his faults, but
he's at least willing to admit he's never been the personnel guy his father
once was.
General manager Reggie McKenzie started slowly, but has
gotten better with his drafts each year. He did well to get Khalil Mack and
Derek Carr last year. There's still hope for 2013 first-round pick D.J. Hayden,
and while McKenzie did take him early in the draft, he made one move down the
board, then the time he spent making the selection suggested McKenzie was
trying to move down again. (Remember, the rule of thumb to
try to move down, but if you can't, stick to your board.)
This year, McKenzie
did well with his selections of Amari Cooper, Mario Edwards, and Clive Walford.
McKenzie was also wise to trade back twice on Day 3, allowing him to accumulate
more depth. The key, though, is for Mark Davis to remain patient with McKenzie,
allow the players to develop, and only insist on change if coaches aren't
working out.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, had been decimated by the constant
moves up the board by the previous regime. The mindset was clearly that the
Jaguars were just a few players away from returning to the playoffs, when the
reality was that it was time to rebuild. It wasn't just that the players they
selected didn't pan out, but what they gave up to get them.
It's still too early to judge Jacksonville's 2014 draft
class, but the good news is that Blake Bortles gets another year to develop a
rapport with receivers Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. There is still hope that
offensive tackle Luke Joeckel, the team's 2013 first-round pick, can get on
track. And this year, the Jaguars did well to get outside linebacker Dante
Fowler Jr. and running back T.J. Yeldon. It's understandable that head coach
Gus Bradley will need to show he can get the Jaguars to at least a .500 record
this year. But more importantly, it's imperative that patience be shown for
general manager David Caldwell, who is slowly getting out of the mess the
previous regime left him, and needs time to show what his work in the drafts
can yield.
* I've liked what I've seen from current Carolina Panthers
general manager Dave Gettleman the first two years he's drafted. His 2013
first-rounder, Star Lotulelei, has been very good, and 2014 first-rounder
Kelvin Benjamin looks like a keeper. And he's finally dug himself out of the
salary cap mess left for him, so he should be in position to get Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly extended.
But this year, Gettleman fell into the worst trap a general
manager can fall for: Panicking. This was the case when he traded up
for tight end Devin Funchess. Giving up third- and sixth-round picks was an
example of not minimizing risk. Additionally, Gettlemen's judgment that other
teams were going to draft receivers proved incorrect. That move reminds me of
when Mike Shanahan traded up to select Jarvis Moss, after limiting his board to
a select few players. I have no idea if Gettlemen limited his board, but
regardless, he gave up too much.
Now Gettlemen needs to hope that Michael Oher can turn things
around, or that fourth-round pick Daryl Williams can start at right tackle.
It's true you don't draft for need just to do so, but giving up those picks
might have cost Gettleman a chance to further help his team's situation.
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