Broncos Need A WR Change, But Maybe Not The One You Think

Along with the issues the Broncos have on the offensive line, there is a debate as to whether or not Andre Caldwell should continue to return kicks for the Broncos and whether or not they would be better served by letting Cody Latimer see more time on the playing field.

There is some merit to the argument, but the argument might also need to include another player who has not been performing well this season: Wes Welker.

Before people start asking what Welker has to do with Caldwell and Latimer, let's go back to the preseason. The Broncos were trying to determine who would return punts and kicks, with Caldwell, Jordan Norwood and Isaiah Burse the leading candidates. Norwood was leading the race to be the return man, but he was lost for the season to a knee injury. Had Norwood not been injured, he likely would have taken on the return duties and we might not be having the discussion about Caldwell.

Let's now take a look at Latimer. The Broncos drafted him because Welker and Demaryius Thomas were both free agents after this season, so they needed to have a receiver who could be ready to enter the starting lineup by the 2015 season. The Broncos would certainly like to re-sign Thomas, but they were likely preparing to part ways with Welker after this season. And given they have more free agents to consider resigning than just Demaryius Thomas, signing a well-known wide receiver in free agency isn't likely to happen, unless they allow Demaryius to depart.

Thus, it makes sense that the Broncos view Latimer as the receiver who is ultimately going to enter the starting lineup and not be utilized on special teams, as is currently the case with Caldwell and Burse. They probably would like to get him some special teams work, but they haven't done so in most games.

I suspect they have a valid reason, and it's less likely to have anything to do with the Broncos liking Caldwell better, and more likely to do with Latimer struggling with special teams during practice and the preseason. I don't have access to preseason game film to make that determination, but it is an area that can be overlooked when we concentrate so much on what a receiver does on the offense and as a return man. If Latimer is struggling with special teams play in general, then it doesn't make sense to replace Caldwell with Latimer on special teams.

But given that Latimer is expected to take over as one of the top three receivers next year, it might make more sense to have him replace Wes Welker.

Let's be honest when it comes to assessing Welker's performance -- he is not an elite receiver. Throughout his career, Welker has had issues with dropped passes, and that has not been corrected since he came to the Broncos. In fact, one only needs to go back to last season, when Welker's stat line shows he played well, but there were multiple instances of him dropping catchable balls.

During the preseason, Welker had a concussion, his third in two seasons. He also was suspended for a couple of games for violating the substance abuse policy. The suspension was later reduced when the policy was modified, but ever since Welker has returned to the field, he has been ineffective. He has just 30 catches in eight games for 264 yards. Based on current averages of 3.8 receptions and 33 yards per game, he will finish with just 53 receptions for 462 yards.

His lack of production can't be entirely explained by the presence of Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Last season, when Eric Decker was in the lineup, Welker had 778 yards on 73 receptions in 13 games, for averages of 5.6 receptions and 59.8 yards per game. Over a 16-game season, those averages would amount to nearly 90 receptions and 957 yards. This season. Welker's averages in 16 games would amount to 61 receptions and 528 yards. Thus, it's clear that Welker is in decline.

I do agree that it's time to get Latimer more involved with the team on game days, and this week's game against Miami is a good time to try him out, especially if Emmanuel Sanders isn't cleared to play because of the concussion he suffered against St. Louis.

However, the player Latimer should ultimately replace in the lineup is not Caldwell, but Welker. Given that the Broncos intended for Latimer to replace one of their pending free agent wide receivers, it makes sense to get Latimer into the lineup to see if he can be more effective than Welker has been.

This does not mean the Broncos should not get Welker involved for any reason for the rest of the season. Instead, it may be time to utilize Welker more often on special teams, similarly to how they have been utilizing Jacob Tamme this and last season, after Tamme saw much time with the offense. It is true that Welker will be paid a lot of money this season, but you have to set that aside at this stage of the season, given Welker's ineffectiveness.

By utilizing Welker on special teams and as the veteran receiver who is available if necessary, it allows the Broncos to then deactivate Caldwell on game days in which they do not wish to keep six receivers active. The Broncos could utilize Omar Bolden on kick returns, which they tried for one game, but stopped doing after he missed a game with a concussion.

If the Broncos are worried about utilizing anybody on special teams after they get a concussion, they need to not be that way. They certainly need to follow the proper protocols, but once players are cleared to return to the lineup, they need to be utilized where they will do the most benefit, not where they are most likely to avoid further injury.

There are valid criticisms regarding Caldwell, but that does not mean Latimer is qualified to take on those special teams duties that normally fall on Caldwell. But given what the Broncos would like Latimer to become, it does make sense to get him involved on offense, and that needs to come about by replacing Welker as much as possible, given that Welker is struggling just as much as Caldwell has.

Examining The Broncos Offensive Line Issues

Today's Denver Bronco game against the St. Louis Rams was a perfect exercise about why it has become important for the Broncos to establish the running game early, and why the Broncos have been juggling around the offensive linemen to find a combination that works.

I won't get too deeply into today's game, except to say that that the offensive line was not the sole reason, or necessarily the main reason, the Broncos lost today. But the offensive line tends to get overlooked when figuring out why the Broncos are having some difficulties against certain teams.

It's easy to look at the defense, which made the headlines because of the money given to players such as DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, but that really isn't the reason the Broncos are having issues against teams whose strong point is having a quality defensive line -- something the Rams have, as well as the Seahawks (before the injury to Brandon Mebane, anyway) and the Jets, both teams the Broncos have played, and the Dolphins, the next team on Denver's schedule.

The issue goes back in part to Peyton Manning, who normally excels against attacking blitzes, but is now becoming too concerned with not taking hits and sacks, and so he tends to force some throws he shouldn't make. This especially became a problem today, when Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas left the game with injuries, and Peyton became too focused on threading the ball to Jacob Tamme, which led to one of his two interceptions and several incompletions. But one reason why he seems to be doing this is because he seems to not trust his offensive line like he should.

And that brings me to the offensive line. Last season, as every Bronco fan will recall, Chris Clark did a good job as left tackle when Ryan Clady was lost for the season to an injury, Manny Ramirez proved to be a capable center, Orlando Franklin was emerging as a top right tackle and Louis Vasquez had an All-Pro season. Then there was Zane Beadles, who excelled as a run blocker but was poor in pass protection.

The offensive line struggled in last season's Super Bowl, in large part because the Seattle Seahawks had multiple players they could rotate and move around on the defensive line, allowing them to contain the running game and generate pressure from different spots. The Broncos, in recognizing this, opted to let Beadles depart in free agency, then move Franklin to guard and put Clark at right tackle, in hopes of improving both the run blocking and pass protection.

In the first half of the season, the pass protection was generally good but the run blocking was not. Franklin has actually been good at left guard, but Ramirez has not looked comfortable playing alongside him, and Clark struggled with run blocking. Because the run blocking wasn't there, this allowed teams to play more often against the pass, particularly when they had a defensive line that could get a push up front. This, in turn, has affected Peyton and what he is able to do well.

The Broncos have since tried Paul Cornick at right tackle, but an injury during practice took him out of the lineup. They have since moved Vasquez to right tackle, Ramirez to right guard, and inserted Will Montgomery at center. Montgomery has been adequate, but Ramirez continues to struggle. So this has prompted the Broncos to work out Richie Incognito, which in turn has drawn concerns about whether or not he's the right guy to bring into the Broncos' locker room.

Getting back to what the Broncos did this past offseason, I believe they had the right idea in giving Clark a shot at starting at right tackle, but his performance has shown he just isn't comfortable in that spot. One can use hindsight bias to say that Franklin should have remained at right tackle and the Broncos should have signed a low-priced veteran to play left guard (along with the signing of Montgomery). But it would make sense to move Franklin back to right tackle, where he was very effective last season, and slide Vasquez back to right guard. Montgomery should remain the starting center, and that leaves the left guard spot. It might be worth one more shot with Ramirez to see if he fits better there.

If not, then the Broncos may have to bite the bullet and bring in Incognito. I am well aware of his reputation and that it goes far beyond the bullying incident with Jonathan Martin last season. But given that the Broncos are intent on getting to the Super Bowl this season, they may have to make the move in order to get better up front.

Let me be clear that I do have mixed feelings about signing Incognito. On one hand, I am concerned about the potential distraction he could bring to the team. There would certainly be a lot of pundits talking about whether or not it's a good idea to have him in the locker room and that it shows the Broncos are overly desperate to win a Super Bowl. Points will be raised that Incognito has never shown he can elevate the play of his teammates, as some might argue when the Broncos had Bill Romanowski in the locker room back in the late 1990s.

On the other hand, I believe the Broncos now have a locker room environment that should allow them to nip such issues in the bud. We all know about the list of how many times Bronco players have been arrested for off-field incidents, but it's worth noting the bulk of those occurred under Mike Shanahan. One of the problems with Shanahan was that it seemed he had no problem bringing any player into the locker room, so long as his teams were a playoff contender, and he paid little mind to those off-field incidents.

This does not appear to be the case with John Fox, who has several players in the locker room who do not tolerate serious issues that could disrupt the locker room. Peyton Manning, Terrance Knighton, DeMarcus Ware and Chris Harris are all players who lead the locker room and expect that their teammates be good to each other and not allow incidents to become a distraction. Knighton and Harris in particular have been vocal about how players need to conduct themselves properly. I would suspect they would be two of the first players to remind Incognito that the actions he has perpetrated in the past are not to be tolerated.

Regardless of what the Broncos decide to do about Incognito, though, they do need to move Franklin back to right tackle, Vasquez back to right guard, and find somebody else to play left guard, whether that is Ramirez, Ben Garland, or somebody else they sign. Then, in the offseason, they need to re-sign Franklin and keep him at right tackle, get Clady to restructure his contract to free up cap space, then consider their options at center and left guard. They will definitely need to take one early in the 2015 draft, while deciding what low priced free agents may need to be brought in. I would suspect the Broncos will part ways with Ramirez, and they may do the same with Clark if they are convinced that Michael Schofield is ready to step up as the new backup tackle behind Clady.

But the lesson to be learned is that sometimes linemen aren't going to be comfortable in a certain position, as definitely has been the case with Clark at right tackle, and that it sometimes works better to just replace a departing player with someone who can comfortably play the open position on the line.

The Teams With The Biggest Cap Issues in 2015

As we pass the midway point of the season, the speculation begins not only about what teams are most likely going to reach the playoffs, but what teams may need to do in preparation for next season.

One of the issues each team must consider when making offseason moves is how much salary cap space is available. The NFL has not officially set the cap for the 2015 season, but new deals for the rights to air NFL games are expected to put the cap at $140 million.

It's likely the actual cap will be slightly higher, but there are several teams that will have to make some tough decisions in the offseason to free up cap space, with some of them having to make equally tough decisions about which pending free agents they will be able to retain.

Here's a brief look at four teams which have the biggest cap issues and what they may be forced to do. All cap figures are based on the projected cap of $140 million.

New Orleans: The Saints  are in a tough spot, as they will be $19.5 million over the cap and must make several cuts and contract restructures to get under the cap. That's tough for a team that has some issues on defense and its offensive line, yet has the expectation that it will be a division contender, and with that comes the expectation of reaching the Super Bowl.

The Saints are likely to approach Drew Brees about restructuring his deal, which could include extending his current deal into 2017 and converting much of his $18.75 million base salary in 2015 into a signing bonus. They will likely do the same with Marques Colston -- cutting him is an option, but they may prefer to keep him around one more year while their younger receivers continue developing.

New Orleans will have to cut a few players, though, and it's likely offensive guard Jahri Evans would be one of them, as he will turn 32 next year and will count for $11 million against the cap. Brodrick Bunkley, Pierre Thoms and Ben Watson are also likely gone.  From there, the Saints will have to focus on the draft and free agent bargains to fill needs. It's possible they could extend Mark Ingram, but if they do, they would be wise to not overpay.

49ers: Another team with a "win now" mindset, the Niners will be $9.5 million over the cap. The Niners are likely to approach Patrick Willis about a contract restructure, which could include an extension that converts much of his $7 million base salary in 2015 into a signing bonus. A two-year extension might make sense, given that he has been a valued member of the defense.

A surprise release could be Justin Smith, who is a popular player, but turns 36 and whose production could be replaced by a younger player. Phil Dawson, who would count for $4.1 million against the cap, is also likely gone. Vernon Davis and Stevie Johnson are both likely cuts, but they could be brought back under new deals that would help the Niners' short-term cap situation.

That leaves free agents, in which Mike Iupati is the only high-profile player the Niners are likely to extend. The franchise tag is a possibility, but an extension would make more sense to ensure the Niners have the cap space they need to sign any low-cost free agents they want, along with their draft picks.

Arizona: The Cardinals are on the heels of giving Carson Palmer an extension, and now sit at $8.8 million over the cap with Palmer out for the season with a torn ACL. Given how well the Cardinals have played under Bruce Arians, they will definitely enter 2015 with the expectation to contend for the playoffs again.

The biggest question will be what to do with Darnell Dockett, who turns 33 and enters the final year of his contract. Cutting him would save $6.8 million in cap space, but the Cardinals will have to wait to see if he is fully recovered from his ACL injury, lest they have to pay him an injury settlement.

It's likely the Cardinals will approach Larry Fitzgerald about restructuring his deal again, converting the $8 million roster bonus he is due into a signing bonus. Calais Campbell could be asked to do the same, and it would make sense to extend his deal two years and convert much of his $9 million base salary into a signing bonus. The only pending free agent the Cardinals may want to re-sign is Antonio Cromartie, but they may prefer to stick with Jerraud Powers, who is several years younger.

Miami: The Dolphins will enter 2015 slightly over the projected cap, coming in $1.4 million above, and will certainly expect to be a playoff contender. The obvious question will center on Mike Wallace, who isn't worth the contract he signed, but cutting him in 2015 won't help the Dolphins that much. It's more likely he will be asked to restructure his deal.

Cutting Cameron Wake is an option, but he's one of the Dolphins' better defenders, so an extension that converts some of his $8.2 million base salary into a signing bonus would make more sense. I imagine the Dolphins would prefer to part ways with Darnell Ellerbee, but that may mean an injury settlement would be due. One likely cut will be Cortland Finnegan, who hasn't lived up to expectations.

The main reason Miami will have to make some cap moves is because Jared Odrick is a pending free agent, as is Louis Delmas, who proved to be a bargain but isn't going to accept a mere $2.25 million salary again. An extension for Odrick would be better than a franchise tag as far as cap space goes. Otherwise, Miami doesn't have any pending free agents it really needs to retain.

Irrational Responses Don't Help After A Lopsided Loss

It's never fun to lose a game in lopsided fashion. For Denver Broncos fans, it was not fun losing to New England this past Sunday, in a game in which the Patriots dominated in every aspect. And it likely brought back memories of what happened in last season's Super Bowl.

Unfortunately, the loss is also bringing out the worst in Broncos fans, who have visions of a Super Bowl win dancing in their heads, all while watching the media hype up the latest showdown between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, and remembering how much money was spent in the offseason, thus believing that such a loss like Sunday's game means that John Fox must be thrown under the bus.

Let me be clear of one thing: There are legitimate criticisms to make regarding Fox, and he is certainly not an elite coach. But the idea that we must throw him under the bus is the most irrational response Broncos fans can make.

I'll start with one problem I've often had with Broncos fans: They believe that the back-to-back Super Bowl wins to cap the 1997 and 1998 seasons came with a magic formula that went like this: Hall of Fame veteran quarterback, plus mastermind head coach, plus draft day steal, plus all the right free agents, equals a Lombardi Trophy. Repeat the process again and it will work.

This mindset thus causes Broncos fan to believe that the way to fix issues with the team are simpler than they really are. When Mike Shanahan was fired, all we needed to do was the fix the defense, they said. When Peyton Manning came along, the Super Bowl wins were certainly a given now that he would have a defense that looked so good in 2011, they believed. When DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward were signed, the Broncos were now going to have a hard-hitting defense that wouldn't underachieve like the year before. And certain views held by mainstream sports pundits only fueled those perceptions.

So when the Broncos are blown out by a team like the Patriots, who are not far removed from three Super Bowl wins and two additional trips, Broncos fans believe there must be something wrong and want an easy answer to it, thus they look for the scapegoat. And considering that Fox has never been considered an elite coach, and sometimes too conservative for his own good, he's the first candidate, because it must be Dan Reeves all over again.

What bothered me the most was when I visited the fan forums at the official Denver Broncos website and read some mind-numbingly dumb comments when one person at the forum pointed out that the Patriots lost in lopsided fashion to the Kansas City Chiefs. One comment was that Patriots-Chiefs wasn't a "big game" and therefore it didn't count. Another comment was along the lines of that a lopsided loss to the Bills or the Jets wouldn't have been so bad because the Broncos may not be as focused for a weaker team.

Such comments are laughably bad. The truth is this: Any time an NFL team loses a lopsided game, regardless of the opponent, it is unacceptable, and every player and coach in the NFL would tell you that. They might react differently in terms of what they discuss following such a loss, but their underlying message is always the same: Blowout losses are not to be tolerated.

With that said, we need to consider what really constitutes a "big game." Fans often think of these as the games that the media hypes up the most. Naturally, the Bronco game against the Pats was going to get it for one reason: Manning vs. Brady. The game against the Seahawks got it because it was the Super Bowl rematch. Then again, so did Broncos-Colts because it was another showdown between Manning and the guy who replaced him in Indy, Andrew Luck.

By the way, the Broncos beat the Colts. They also beat the Chiefs, Cardinals and 49ers, both teams who remain in playoff hunts. And the Chargers may have been blown out against the Dolphins, but they are not out of the playoff hunt yet.

Which brings me to this: Whenever two teams who are contending for the playoffs square off, it's a big game. So let's not try to downplay any particular contest just because it doesn't get hyped as much as one involving Manning and Brady.

As far as Sunday's game itself goes, there are a few things we may want to consider before we start breaking out the torches and pitchforks with regards to John Fox. Consider, for example, the theory that if you blitz Brady often, he gets rattled and can't connect with his receivers. While there may be some truth to that, what happens when you blitz a quarterback often and he is able to dump the ball off to his tight end? That's what happened when the Broncos faced San Diego, and Phillip Rivers was often able to connect with Antonio Gates. It's certainly possible that Fox and Jack Del Rio wondered if blitzing Brady was a good idea when he might just dump the ball often to Rob Gronkowski (and Gronk is better than Gates at this point, even though Gates has had a great career), or perhaps he does that to somebody like Shane Vereen, a good pass-catching back (and while Branden Oliver is a nice story, he's not as experienced as Vereen).

Now, it's fair to argue that Fox and Del Rio should not have been thinking too much about what Rivers did against them and apply that same theory to going against Brady and Gronk. But that doesn't mean the answer is to get rid of them, but to figure out a different approach should the teams meet again, or even rushing five more often on passing downs, regardless of the opponent.

It is also fair to argue that Aqib Talib should have been covering Gronk most of the game, but we must not forget that Talib played a terrible game against the Pats, and his play had nothing to do with scheme or who he was covering, and everything to do with Talib's play itself. When a player has a bad game, you acknowledge it and don't pretend that a scheme change was the difference between him playing well or not.

We must also remember that it's difficult for even playoff-caliber teams to win on the road against a playoff contender. The Broncos' two losses both were on the road against playoff contenders, ditto for the Pats. Their wins over playoff contender have all been home games. The Pats have two of those three upcoming "big games" on the road, and if they fail to win either of them, we might have to ask ourselves whether they really are the team destined to go to the Super Bowl. And one only needs to go back and look at the Patriots in past seasons to see that their losses were often road games against playoff contenders.

Of course, the same can be said about the Broncos, as their games against the Chiefs, Chargers and Bengals are on the road. And it may be easy for some Broncos fans to make assumptions about those games, but let's be realistic. The Chiefs, who many thought were about to fall back to earth, are very much in the playoff hunt and a serious threat not just to the Broncos, but other playoff contenders they have yet to face. The Bengals have been up and down, but chances are they'll come out swinging against the Broncos, particularly because it's near the end of the season and they may be desperate for a win to ensure a playoff spot. It may be fun to laugh at Phillip Rivers and the Chargers now, but there's no telling what they might do once they return from their bye.

As far as Fox goes, criticizing his decisions is one thing, but let's quit pretending that if we replaced him with another head coach, that all our problems would be solved. Keep in mind that you need a head coach that is going to allow Peyton Manning the latitude to freely discuss what needs to be done on offense with his coordinator, rather than an autocratic type who wants to control everything, or a coach who is known for being too bluntly honest with his assessments and thus draws attention to himself. This may be why Jim Mora was not the right coach for a team with Peyton Manning, but that coaches such as Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell, and John Fox are better fits, even if they aren't truly elite.

So, no, I don't think Rex Ryan is the answer, because he's like Mora in that he draws too much attention to himself because of his brutal honesty. And as far as autocratic coaches go, there is a theory that Peyton didn't go to San Francisco because he wouldn't have been able to make things work with Jim Harbaugh, who is an autocratic type. Bill Belichick is the same way, so yes, he would not have been a good pairing with Manning, and needed to be paired with somebody like Tom Brady, as in a quarterback who is competitive and has talent, but needed plenty of molding before he could truly become a top passer. And I may as well bring up Mike Shanahan and say that I don't think he would have made it work with Peyton, either. Keep in mind how much Shanahan and John Elway liked each other, and that Elway could accept Shanahan's coaching style because he liked so much about what Shanahan did for an offense.

In other words, it's best to settle down about Fox and his future and focus on what's important: The remainder of the season. We will find out what Fox (and everyone else on the Broncos, for that matter) has learned from Sunday's game and what the results will be. Once the season is over, regardless of the final result, that will be the time to evaluate and determine what changes need to be made.

Until then, let's not overreact to what happened on Sunday. Expecting that the Broncos not let it happen again is understandable. Starting up any petition or website to fire John Fox is an irrational response, and such responses never help after a lopsided loss.

Determining The Greatest QB Is Not That Simple

Peyton Manning has the career record for touchdown passes. So where does he fit in among the best quarterbacks of all time?

And thus the debate begins -- and it usually starts by talking about playoff records and Super Bowl rings.

Let's first start with a collection of articles that Douglas Lee at It's All Over Fat Man gathered, in which some writers talked from the perspective of how great Peyton is as a player, to those who talk about how his career won't really be complete without another championship.

Of course, the debate generally starts with Tom Brady, who has three rings to Peyton's one. Even brother Eli has more rings than Peyton -- and, hey, Eli is 2-0 against Brady in Super Bowls, so clearly Eli is better than Brady, right?

But wait, there's more! Brady is 3-2 overall in the Super Bowl, so we should be able to put him safely behind Joe Montana, who is 4-0 -- the same record as Terry Bradshaw. And then there's Troy Aikman, who won three Super Bowls and never lost any. Therefore, if Super Bowl rings are all that matter, Bradshaw is far superior not only to Brady, but to any other QB who has followed in their footsteps, with the exception of Montana. And Aikman must be better than Brady because Aikman never choked in a Super Bowl!

Of course, then we get into the arguments about the teams that were built around Aikman and Bradshaw -- but then we forget that Montana had the same, and ditto for Brady. Whereas when you look at the teams built around Peyton Manning, they are a mixed bag.

With that said, one can make the argument that having good skill players on offense helps a quarterback. Peyton Manning always seems to have those players, such as Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker. Brady had Welker, Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowski, but a lot of the running backs and receivers who played with Brady are seldom mentioned among the greats at those positions.

But we also forget that the Super Bowl didn't exist since the NFL's inception, and that the rules weren't always so favorable to the passing game. So what happens when we roll out Johnny Unitas, who may have been a QB ahead of his time and won a pair of championships in the pre-Super Bowl era, and Otto Graham, who not only won multiple championships in the pre-Super Bowl era, but played both offense and defense, something no quarterback today does.

Regardless of who you think is the best QB of all time, there are a few factors to keep in mind that may help you sort it out:

1. Win-loss records are not as meaningful as breaking down individual games: Every time the Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady debate comes up, we always talk about what the win-loss record is between the two, without bothering to dig further into the details about their performances.

Let's consider one example: In 2009, the Patriots led the Colts 34-21 with 4:17 left in the game, only for the Colts to score 14 points to win the game. One might say Peyton Manning won the game for the Colts, but does this mean Tom Brady lost the game for the Patriots? Or did we forget that was the game in which Bill Belichick chose to go for it on fourth-and-one at the Pats' 28-yard line, and failed, thus setting up that final drive for the Colts?

Then there was the 2004 outing, in which the Colts cut the Patriots lead to 27-24 with 11:09 left, then Brady threw an interception on the Pats' next drive. However, on first-and-goal at the 1, Edgerrin James fumbled and the Pats recovered. The Colts got another possession, but Mike Vanderjagt missed a 48-yard field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. Do we honestly believe that Brady won that game and Peyton lost it?

The focus on win-loss records for QBs always goes back to the silly argument of "the quarterback always wins the game and the quarterback always loses the game." Yet few people would argue that every single team that, for example, won the Super Bowl, won it because of whoever was quarterback.

2. Great quarterbacks regularly get their teams to the playoffs, while great teams win multiple Super Bowls in a short time span: Let's consider the time frames in which Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw and Troy Aikman got their Super Bowl rings. Bradshaw played for Steelers teams that won four in a six-year span (1975-1980). Montana played for 49ers teams that won four in a nine-year span (1982-1990). Aikman played for Cowboys teams that won three Super Bowls in four years (1993, 1994, 1996).The Steelers and Cowboys qualify as great teams, given that they won their multiple Super Bowls so close together. The Niners might be considered the team of the 1980s, although their Super Bowls were spread out over a longer period.

How do the Patriots compare with Brady as QB? They are similar to the Cowboys with Aikman, as they won three in four years (2002, 2004, 2005). A Super Bowl win in 2008 would not only have made the Pats similar to the Steelers, but would have generated talk about the greatest team of all time. Of course, we all know the Giants ended that dream. Still, it is fair to categorize that Patriots bunch as a great team.

So what does this mean for Brady? Well, there is this to consider: Every season in which Brady has started at least 14 games, the Patriots have made the playoffs in all but one season: 2002. (Remember: Brady didn't start as a rookie.) Then consider Peyton Manning: Every season in which he has started at least 14 games, his teams have made the playoffs in all but two seasons: 1998 (his rookie season) and 2001 (the year of Jim Mora's infamous remark).

Because Brady played in just one game as a rookie and took a whopping three pass attempts, it may be fair to set Peyton's rookie season aside. Thus each QB has one season in which he missed the playoffs, when he started most games and should have settled into his role.

But then this brings us to another point.

3. When the best quarterbacks are lost for a season, their absence is truly felt: Let us consider the seasons that Brady and Peyton missed because of injuries. In 2008, the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel, despite missing the playoffs on tiebreakers, but still finished better than any team in the mediocre AFC West (San Diego and Denver were both 8-8). In 2011, the Colts went 1-15.

Those seasons make it clear that, while Brady may have been an important part of the Patriots, he wasn't doing near as much to keep getting the Patriots into the playoffs, as Peyton had been doing with the Colts.

It is certainly worth arguing that Brady's absence on the current Patriots team might keep the Patriots from reaching the playoffs. But it's just as easy to make that argument with Peyton's absence for the current Broncos team.

None of these points are meant to declare that one quarterback is automatically better than the other. They are to remind you that measuring how great a QB is, is a complex issue that can't just simply be considered by looking at wins, stats or rings.

The Jets and Other Candidates for Regime Changes

It's easy for NFL fans to declare that a regime change needs to be made based on how poorly a team is faring.

Case in point is the New York Jets, who are 1-4 to start the season and don't appear to have any chance of turning things around to become a playoff contender this season.

Criticism, though, is not limited to Rex Ryan, who is likely to lose his job after this season. Much of the finger pointing gets directed at general manager John Izdik, based on facts such as that Geno Smith hasn't lived up to expectations, that 2014 fourth-round pick Jalen Saunders was released and that 2013 first-round pick Dee Millner has failed to impress.

As Bill Barnwell explains, though, the picture regarding Izdik is not that simple. Izdik is still trying to sort out the mess that former GM Mike Tannenbaum left behind. Tannenbaum mismanaged the salary cap, made bold draft moves too often at the expense of the team's depth, and made questionable free agent signings and trades.

Expectations were no doubt placed too high for the Jets based on their 8-8 finish last season and that Rex Ryan has been able to take past Jets teams that weren't really built that well, into the playoffs and even make a deep run. That's no doubt why Izdik chose to keep Ryan around last season. After the 8-8 finish, it would be hard to justify firing Ryan, but now, signs are pointing to that happening by season's end, given that Izdik is clearly in a rebuilding mindset, while Ryan continues to believe the Jets are a playoff contender.

You can read Barnwell's article for more details, but to sum up: Izdik has overseen just two drafts and didn't make bold moves up the draft board, he's tried to be smart with free agent signings and he's not spending his time trying to make a splash. The signing of Michael Vick hardly counts as that, as he signed a one-year deal for $4 million, which is the type of deal you give to a veteran who is supposed to be the backup and a mentor to the younger QB you want to develop.

Izdik has made strides in getting the salary cap situation resolved, but not all of the bad contracts will come off the books until 2016. Nick Mangold could be released this coming offseason to free up $17.6 million in cap space over the next two seasons, but the Jets will have to stick it out with D'Brickshaw Ferguson for at least another year, before they can gain more cap space than dead money through his release.

It might be fair to criticize Izdik for not doing more to improve the team's depth, but engaging in a rash spending spree when your team is in rebuilding mode doesn't make sense.

The Jets aren't the only team who will get talked up about making changes in the front office and/or coaching. Let's look at some others (aside from Oakland, who already fired Dennis Allen).

Buffalo: The main reason you might hear about changes coming is the fact that the Bills have been sold to Terrence Pegula. Buddy Nix had been general manager until May of last year, when he moved to a special assistant position and Doug Whaley, who oversaw the team's pro personnel department, took over as GM. Doug Marrone now enters in his second year as head coach.

It would be unfair to blame Whaley for the contract the Bills gave to Mario Williams, who has been a good player, but was overpaid, and the Bills are likely stuck with him through 2015. One can debate how much input Whaley had into the drafts that happened while Nix was general manager, in which there have been some good picks (Marcel Dareus, Cordy Glenn) and some that haven't worked out (EJ Manuel, Terrell Troup).

What is clearly Whaley's responsibility is the decision to trade up for Sammy Watkins, giving up a 2015 first rounder in the process. Watkins shows a lot of promise, but it remains to be seen if he'll be the impact player the Bills believe he will be. Most of all, Whaley needs to figure out what is next with his quarterback situation, should Kyle Orton not pan out, given that Orton would count for $7 million against the cap in 2015.

I believe Pegula should, and will, give Whaley a chance to prove himself next season. If the Bills don't make the playoffs, I don't believe firing Marrone is the answer, either, unless the Bills lose all their remaining games. Firing Marrone at season's end under most scenarios would strike me as a panic move on Whaley's part and could put Whaley into a "win or else" situation next season.

Jacksonville: There is one parallel between the Bills and the Jaguars that can be drawn, as in 2011, Shahid Khan purchased the team and questions arose as to the future of those in the front office. General manager Gene Smith fired coach Jack Del Rio at the end of the 2011 season, and then was fired himself after the 2012 season. The difference from the Bills is that Smith and Del Rio had been around far longer (Del Rio since 2003, Smith since 2009).

Smith did a poor job of drafting. Although 2009 first-round pick Eugene Monroe and third-round pick Terrance Knighton have been good players, Knighton didn't blossom until joining the Denver Broncos (where Del Rio is the defensive coordinator) and Monroe was traded to the Baltimore Ravens. Draft picks such as Tyson Alualu, D'Anthony Smith, Blaine Gabbert and Will Rackley have failed to make an impact and Justin Blackmon is serving a season-long suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.

The Jaguars are also digging out of some bad contracts, notably that of tight end Marcedes Lewis, who Smith overpaid. Current general manager David Caldwell will be able to release Lewis after this season and free up $6.8 million in cap space. The good news for Caldwell is that his more recent signings were given cap friendly deals that the Jaguars can get out of easily. Toby Gerhart hasn't proven to be the featured back the Jags need, but they could release him after the season with no cap hit, so long as they do it before his roster bonus kicks in.

It's true the Jaguars have underachieved with Gus Bradley at the helm, but firing him after two seasons really isn't the answer. Caldwell needs time to fully implement his plan and Bradley needs at least another season to show he can get the team can improve.

Carolina: Marty Hurney had been with the Panthers since 1998, but it was apparent by the 2012 season that it was time for him to go. His mismanagement of the salary cap and some poor personnel decisions caught up with him, and while it may have been time for John Fox to go when he was fired in 2011, Hurney shared a larger responsibility for the team's situation.

The biggest problem with Hurney was his handling of the salary cap, in which the Panthers are stuck with DeAngelo Williams through 2016, when he will be 34 years old. A quick glance at how Williams' contract was structured will tell you all you need to know. Hurney also didn't structure well the deals for Jonathan Stewart and Charles Johnson.

Between the cap space tied up in those players, and the franchise tag being applied to Greg Hardy, new Panthers general manager David Gettleman had no choice but to release Steve Smith to get cap space freed up. That means Gettleman has to draft wisely to make up for the other cap issues. It also forces Ron Rivera (a Hurney hire) to work with the hand he is dealt.

Although Rivera was hired by Hurney, I believe firing him would be the wrong move, unless the Panthers finish with a losing record. Right now, the Panthers look like an 8-8 or 9-7 team, which might be enough to win the NFC South, given that no other team really stands out. As for Gettleman, the smart thing for the Panthers to do is to be patient until their cap situation is finally resolved

St. Louis: I've already read elsewhere about how it might be time for Jeff Fisher to go, with the claim that the Rams have shown no improvement under him. What these people forget, though, is not just that the Rams play in a tough division, but that they have had hard luck at the quarterback position. Sam Bradford's contract came before the rookie pay scale came into play and this past offseason was the first one in which the Rams could have released him without taking a large cap penalty.

Given that Bradford was respectable in 2012 (Fisher's first season) and was off to a solid start in 2013 before injuries ended his season, it is reasonable to assume that Fisher and general manager Les Snead wanted to give Bradford another chance to show he could be the franchise QB. His preseason injury, though, likely means they will part ways with Bradford this coming offseason.

I don't think Fisher is going with Austin Davis simply to see if he can save his job. Given that Bradford is not likely to be with the Rams next year, it makes sense for Fisher (and Snead) to find out if Davis is a quarterback they can build around, or if they need to address the position through the draft and/or free agency next season. That, along with the fact that Fisher is getting a lot out of a squad that doesn't have that much talent on offense, leads me to believe that Fisher will be back next season. As for Davis, thus far his drafts have been pretty solid, so there's no reason to make a change in the front office.

Miami: The Dolphins did the right thing by parting ways with Jeff Ireland after last season, and new general manger Dennis Hickey did the right thing by retaining head coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins had plenty of problems, but most of them do not appear to be at the hands of Philbin. I don't imagine Hickey is going to fire Philbin after this season, unless the Dolphins fail to make the playoffs and Hickey is convinced he needs to find his own coach.

Of course, nobody is going to insist that Hickey be fired after just one season, and he'll need to wait one more season before he can get out of the deal Ireland gave to Mike Wallace. Ireland overpaid not only for Wallace, but several other players as well, which means Hickey will have to make some decisions to address the Dolphins' cap situation, as the team will be either be close to the cap or over it in 2015.

New York Giants: Some may wonder if this is the final season for Tom Coughlin, especially if the Giants fail to make the playoffs. He did get a contract extension through the 2015 season, though, so it's not a guarantee that he will be gone after this season. I suspect if he does depart, though, that it will be by his own choice. Of course, if the Giants do make the playoffs, I don't think anyone is going to expect Coughlin to depart.

Jerry Reese has done a fine job as general manager, so I would expect no changes there, regardless of what happens to the Giants this season. He's drafted pretty well and has been wise with most free agent signings, and the Giants' cap situation is in good shape.

Pittsburgh: There's likely to be somebody out there wondering if Mike Tomlin will be gone simply because the Steelers haven't made the playoffs in recent years. Anyone who does this, though, needs to remember that the Steelers are still sorting out their cap situation, in which they have to ride it out with a few veterans while drafting and developing their eventual replacements.

The Steelers have generally been a patient organization and understand that there may transitional periods in which the team doesn't always make the playoffs, but are then ready to reap the rewards of deep playoff runs once those transitional periods are completed. 

So I don't expect the Steelers to fire Tomlin any time soon. What they will need to do this offseason is draft wisely, as they are nearing the point in which certain veterans will have to be released to free up cap space, particularly with Ben Roethlisberger nearing the end of his current deal and becoming a likely candidate for an extension.