tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13252989162005479152024-03-14T01:12:21.494-07:00Small Town Sports BeatAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-86789645094101837912015-06-20T17:23:00.002-07:002015-06-20T17:23:54.536-07:00New Blog is UpYou can now follow my blogging at relaxingwithsixpack.blogspot.com.<br />
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Thank you in advance to those who choose to follow me there.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-65805587927362689142015-06-18T18:15:00.000-07:002015-06-18T18:15:15.518-07:00About to Enter a New RealmHello, those of you who read my blog. I have an announcement to make about the future of this blog and what's coming next, but wanted to share with you a little tale, which some of you know about and some of you may not.<br />
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It was about 10 years ago when I started thinking about ways to expand my writing horizons. I became more interested in reading up on history and thinking more critically about issues that impacted our everyday lives. I went through a period when I was paying off debts and thus spent more time on the Internet and less time watching TV. I found that getting away from the TV opened my eyes a bit more, and allowed me to develop the critical thinking skills I had for some time, but didn't bothered to utilize.<br />
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I also rekindled my interest in superheroes. I had always been interested in them as a kid, but back in the 1980s, it was considered to be uncool to be a geek, and I wasn't always certain if I should share that interest with others. Having grown up, I've realized it's OK to share that interest (although it helps that superhero movies have been so popular as of late), and I have no problem admitting I stockpiled on DVDs related to superheroes, and gotten more into graphic novels.<br />
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Those two factors got me back into reading books more often, and realize that curling up with a good book is one of the best things you can do with your spare time. It got me to thinking that I should sit down and write a book at some point.<br />
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When I decided to dip my toes into the world of book writing, I wasn't sure where to start. I had a bunch of ideas running through my head, both fiction and nonfiction, and ultimately thought a good place to start would be something I had plenty of experience with, that being my work at The Raton Range. I had so many interesting stories I watched unfold during my time there, that I decided to start with a book about them. Hence, Small Town Sports Beat was born.<br />
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The unfortunate part, though, was just a few weeks after I self-published the book, The Raton Range ceased publication. I will be honest with you: It broke my heart and it became tough for me to deal with. When I took a job elsewhere, it was hard for me to go about promoting the book, because I was away from the area that would have the most interest in it, plus I was finding it hard to adjust to life away from Raton, particularly when I didn't land in a good job situation.<br />
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I am happy to say that I'm in a better job situation now. I hold no regrets about writing Small Town Sports Beat -- and by no means am I planning to pull it from Amazon. It will always be available to anyone who wants to purchase it, even though I'm not actively promoting it. I will say, though, that it was a good experience, because I learned a little more about what works and doesn't work with book writing. In particular, I would not have formatted my manuscript as one-and-a-half spaced, because it made the book more pages than it needed to be, and thus more expensive. The one thing I would have done differently was make it single spaced, and that would have made it fewer pages and available at a lower price while still ensuring a good profit margin.<br />
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With all that said, my plans originally had been to sit down and start figuring out what of my many ideas would make for a good fiction book. After getting out of a job that didn't work out for me, and settling down into a better one, I had the time the past few months to sit down and generate some of those ideas into a story. I completed the first draft and had a good friend critique it, then reviewed what she had to say and revamped it.<br />
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What I will share to start: I have a planned trilogy, have the draft of the first book finished but will likely fine-tune it some more, and have started work on the second book. I am also reading a book about how to get one published and what to expect, and will be looking at ways to establish a better presence on a blog that will focus more on my attempts at fiction writing. What details I share about the books will depend on how I decide to develop my promotional plans (and promoting is not one of my strong points, I'll admit it) and generate what I hope will be a good following, in hopes that it will give me more leverage when I start seeking an agent.<br />
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I can tell you that the book is going to be set in the future, aimed at young adult and science fiction readers, with my own twist on superheroes, and related to topics that are certainly a large part of conversation in today's society. I won't say more than that, other than I got inspiration from other books and TV shows I have watched for the direction to take my work.<br />
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With that in mind, I will not be posting at this specific blog any longer. I will leave it up so that people can still find my writings if they wish, and if they so happen to be spurred to learn more about the Small Town Sports Beat book. I am planning to set up a new blog through Blogspot, at which I'll talk more about topics that pertain to books that I have read, shows that I have watched, items that interest me, and general thoughts that will be designed to make people think. I have found that the best books and shows are ones that make you think about the themes, and not just look for something that entertains you. When you look at some of the top books that have been published, their themes are what make them timeless.<br />
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I will tell you that I am still going to be posting thoughts about the Denver Broncos and the NFL in general, and those will be posted at In Thin Air, which can be found at in-thinair.com. I want to contribute to that new community and help build it, and my plan is to put something up there every Wednesday night.<br />
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And before anyone asks: No, nothing is changing with my job situation. One piece of advice aspiring authors are given is to make sure you have another job. Besides, I'm just getting started with work at the Kingman Leader-Courier, I like my job, I like the people I've met, and I want to keep doing this for a few more years. The fiction writing (which will be done outside of work hours) I'm undertaking is about testing the waters to see what happens, and if it develops into something bigger, that's great. If it doesn't get bigger, I can still say I experienced it and learned what it was all about. It's something I need to find out if I can do well, because if I don't make the attempt, I'll never know. Paraphrasing Michael Jordan, you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take.<br />
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So in the meantime, I will establish the new blog that will allow me to talk about other things, and figure out the best way to get people interested in my fiction writing, all while I explore what options are out there. I hope to have the new blog up and running by next week, and I hope to post something there every Thursday night. For those who are interested in science fiction, superheroes, or just want to hear whatever happens to be on my mind, I'll get the link up on Facebook, Twitter, and this blog.<br />
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For everyone who has been reading here, thanks for doing so, and I hope you're ready to join me as I enter a new realm.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-54683921039659204852015-05-14T13:10:00.001-07:002015-05-18T09:43:06.499-07:00Evaluating Broncos 2011 and 2012 Drafts<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Following up on my previous posts about what I believe one
should expect from a draft pick in each round, let's look at how the Denver
Broncos 2011 and 2012 draft classes measure up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011 first round: Von Miller -- I think everyone knows the
answer to this question. Now we just need to hope that, at some point in the
future, Miller and the Broncos will agree to an extension.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011 second round: Rahim Moore -- Moore struggled as a
rookie, but improved his second season. His third season was cut short with a
health scare, but he fared well in his final season. I'd call him a good pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011 second round: Orlando Franklin -- I think everyone will
agree that Franklin, a four-year starter on the offensive line who got better
each season, was a good pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011 third round: Nate Irving -- Irving had to go through a
learning curve before he finally cracked the starting lineup late in his third
year, although some might argue that was out of necessity. He entered his
fourth year as a starter, had a good start, then injuries cut his season short.
While I would lean toward him being a good pick, I can understand why someone
might argue he was overdrafted, given he didn't contribute as much as some may
have wished.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011 fourth round: Julius Thomas -- Not only was Thomas a
good pick, he was good value.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2011 fourth round: Quinton Carter -- Carter worked his way
into the starting lineup as a rookie, then injuries sidelined him the next two
seasons. He emerged as a rotational player his fourth year, but again, injuries
sidelined him. Injuries can neither be prevented nor predicted in every single
instance, so I tend to lean to Carter being a good pick because the Broncos got
a little mileage out of him. Again, though, I can understand if someone would
call him overdrafted.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The rest of the class: Virgil Green was clearly a good pick.
Jeremy Beal and Mike Mohamed weren't with the team for long, but as I've
mentioned, that's not necessarily a big deal, given that expectations were that
they weren't going to be roster locks each season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012 second round: Derek Wolfe -- Do you remember the time
when a certain Denver radio personality admonished the Broncos for failing in
the 2012 first round? Do you remember how, after several players didn't fall to
the Broncos, that they failed big time when they traded down with Tampa Bay,
who took Doug Martin? Do you now realize just how silly that looks in
retrospective? As we have learned, Doug Martin was overdrafted, while Wolfe has
been a quality starter for three seasons. You can now tell that radio
personality what a good pick Wolfe has been.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012 second round: Brock Osweiler -- This one will certainly
be debated. It's true the Broncos had no idea what they would get from Peyton
Manning when they signed him. On the other hand, they could have drafted
Russell Wilson, or drafted another quarterback after the second round. Then
again, if they had taken Wilson, and Manning still performed at the high level
he did, Wilson is sitting on the bench, and who knows if Osweiler might have
excelled elsewhere. I do think it's fair to call the Osweiler pick a case of
overdrafting a player. With that said, this could change depending on
circumstances. If the Broncos, at any point, indicate they want to extend
Osweiler past his rookie deal, that's a sign they still believe he can be the
quarterback of the future. If they extend him, and he proves to be a worthy
starter, we can certainly reconsider Osweiler's case.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012 third round: Ronnie Hillman -- This one is easier to
categorize. Hillman has had his moments in his three seasons, but it doesn't
appear likely he'll be the starter this coming season. I think we can safely
label Hillman an overdrafted player.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012 fourth round: Omar Bolden -- Bolden has been a quality
special teams player, and last season, gave the Broncos a kick returner they
desperately needed, and handled himself well when asked to start. I'd call that
a good pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012 fourth round: Phillip Blake -- Blake spent his rookie
year on the practice squad, then was cut in training camp before his second
season began. He never played in an NFL regular-season game. He's absolutely an
overdrafted player, and while my criteria does not apply a "bust"
label to players taken in the fourth round or later, I certainly understand why
other people may label Blake a bust.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012 fifth round: Malik Jackson -- Jackson has emerged into
a quality rotational player during his three seasons. That's certainly a good
pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2012 sixth round: Danny Trevathan -- Trevathan emerged as a
starter in his rookie year, then broke out in his second year as one of the
team's best defensive players. Injuries cost him most of his third season, but
there is hope he can bounce back in his fourth year. I definitely call him a
draft-day steal, and if this year, he plays at or above the level of his second
season, the "draft-day steal" label shouldn't even be debated.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Overall, John Elway and his staff did a terrific job of
drafting in 2011, and did pretty well for themselves in 2012. If I was grading
drafts, I'd definitely give the Broncos an A for 2011, and lean toward a B for
2012.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-1900480066278098542015-05-14T08:46:00.001-07:002015-05-14T08:46:35.964-07:00NFL Draft Evaluations: Judging Picks By Expectations<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
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We're a couple of weeks removed from this year's NFL draft
and plenty of people handed out grades, mostly based on whether or not teams
addressed immediate needs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But as we have learned so many times, how well one drafts
doesn't simply come down to how well you addressed needs, but how much the
players contributed, particularly based on what round you took them.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Therefore, a better time to analyze how well a team has
drafted, is to do so several years after the draft has taken place. It also
helps to know what the expectations should be for a player, depending on what
round the player is taken.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It's a good time to assess the Denver Broncos 2011 and 2012
draft classes, because each of those drafts took place several three years ago.
We have enough time to assess what the players contributed, and how that
compares to expectations based on the round they were drafted.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What would be those expectations? Here's my thoughts:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>First round:</b> A player taken in this round is one you expect
to be part of your franchise for the long term. In other words, after his
rookie deal expires, you expect he'll be a player you will want to make every
effort to re-sign. There are a few thing to keep in mind, though.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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* It is true that first-round picks are signed for four
years, with a club option for a fifth year. But to consider the player a good
pick, it's not necessary that you pick up the option, as long as you make it
clear you want to re-sign the player. The Houston Texans declined the option on
Whitney Mercilus, but later gave him a four-year extension. The Seattle
Seahawks declined the option on Bruce Irvin, but hope to extend him. Both teams
likely want better value than the $7.7M salary the rookie option would have been.
But because the Texans extended Mercilus, it's clear they want him for the long
term, and the Seahawks' intentions to extend Irvin indicate the same. In both
cases, the pick can still be considered a good one.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* If a team clearly wants to extend a player, but is unable
to do so, even after picking up the option and using the franchise tag for a
year, it's still a good pick. There will be those situations in which a team
wants to keep a player, but the player prefers to test the market and get what
he thinks will be a better deal. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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* One can consider a first-round pick not used well when the
team makes it clear it does not intend to extend the player when the rookie
deal expires. In such a case, it matters not if the option year is exercised.
Washington, for example, exercised its option for Robert Griffin III, but that
is likely because it viewed the option year a better deal than declining it,
then needing to use the franchise tag, should RG3 have a strong 2015 season.
But if RG3 does not perform well the next two seasons, and Washington's front
office makes it clear they are not keeping him, then one can call the selection
of RG3 a poor usage of a first-round pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* We should consider the difference between overdrafting a player
and a busted pick. Let's say a team drafted a player in the first round, and
either stood pat with its original pick, or traded down in the first round and
took the player. If that player becomes one the team decides not to retain when
the rookie deal expires, the player should be considered overdrafted. A recent
example of an overdrafted player would be Tennessee Titans 2011 first-round
pick Jake Locker, who had his moments in his brief career, but the Titans did not
pick up the option year, nor make any attempt to extend him. Had Locker been
selected in a later round, it still might not have been the best usage of a
pick, but expectations for Locker to excel would not have been as high (we'll
get to other rounds later).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On the other hand, if the team waives the player at any time
prior to the rookie deal expiring, it is safe to call the pick a bust. The same would apply if a team traded up in the first round, particularly
if it gave up a lot in return to get the player, then chose not to extend him. The Cleveland Browns' 2012 first-round selection of
Brandon Weeden was certainly a busted pick, as he was waived after just two seasons with the team. Briefly
getting back to RG3, if Washington does not extend him after the 2016 season,
he could be called a bust, because Washington gave up a lot to move up in the
first round to select him.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Moving on to other rounds, and keeping in mind all drafted
players get four-year contracts:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Second round:</b> Players taken in this round should be starters
for at least three of the four years they are with the team, and two of them
need to be at least as good starters. If a second-round pick spends four years
with the team, but never becomes a good starter, he's an overdrafted player. A
second-round pick would be a bust if he not only never became a good starter,
but is waived by the team before his rookie deal expired.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Third round:</b> Players taken in this round should be starters
for at least a year, and have been at least a good rotational or depth player
for two years prior. This is because third-round picks are thought of as players that
might take a year or two to develop, and might have to wait behind more experienced
players before they get to start. If the player doesn't start by his fourth
year in the league, he's overdrafted. A third-round bust is one who is waived
before his rookie deal ends.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before I get to other rounds, I do not consider any players
taken in the fourth round or later to be busts, because the expectation is that
they are not guaranteed to become starters. But there is a particular expectation for the
first of these rounds.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Fourth round:</b> A player taken in the fourth round should
become at least a good depth, rotational, and/or special teams player during
his time with the team. If the player is waived before his rookie deal ends, he
has been overdrafted.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Fifth through seventh rounds:</b> The final rounds are when you
pick players who will likely have to compete for roster spots. If they become
depth players, that's good. If they become good starters by their second year in the league, then you have
a draft-day steal. If they never make the active roster, then it's not
necessarily a big deal, because you didn't draft them with the expectation that
they were locks for the final roster.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>A quick note about trades:</b> If a team drafts a player, and
trades him before his rookie deal expires, what determines him a good pick or
not depends on what the team gets in return. If the player was drafted in the
first through third round, and the team gets far less in return than what it
spent to get the player, then the player is a busted pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What if the team
gets more in return? Well, it's definitely not a wasted pick if you get more in
return than what you spent to get the player. On the other hand, because the
team is trading the player, you should ask why the team is doing this, before
judging the pick as a good one.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I will examine the Denver Broncos 2011 and 2012 drafts in a
future post.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-16161665070471013092015-05-04T08:55:00.004-07:002015-05-04T08:55:51.353-07:00Broncos Continue to Build for Now and the Future<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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I used to be one of those people who assessed a team's draft
solely based on how well they filled their needs. I've changed that approach,
though, because when you do that, you are often looking at immediate needs, not
future needs. Addressing both is part of the team-building process.</div>
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Additionally, there's no telling how well any of these
players are going to do. There are countless players who were drafted, who
never lived up to expectations. Grading a draft is like grading a student based
on the material chosen for a research paper. You are making a judgment before you
know what the finished product will look like.</div>
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And when it comes to the Denver Broncos, I've found more
often than not that John Elway has been a good judge of talent. His 2011 draft
class was strong, as of his nine picks, seven of them contributed extensively for at least one season. Yet
if someone was handing out draft day grades that year, that someone was wondering why
Elway didn't draft a defensive lineman until the seventh round. But time has
told that Von Miller was very much worth the second overall pick in the draft,
and that the likes of Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin, and Julius Thomas were
worth the picks used.</div>
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Elway continued to do well in 2012,with fourth-round pick
Phillip Blake the only real miss. The jury is still out on the 2013 draft
class, but there is hope that Montee Ball can get back on track, that Sylvester
Williams could be the answer at nose tackle, and that Kayvon Webster could take a bigger role in the defense.</div>
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With all that said, Elway was wise to not only think about
the future when he moved up in the first round to select defensive end Shane
Ray, but to minimize his risk when he moved up the board. As I discussed last
week, what makes a move up the board wise is when you don't give up too much or
jeopardize your ability to build your team. The Broncos accumulated
compensatory picks this year, so they could afford to part with one fifth-round
pick this year. They will get more comp picks next year, so parting with a 2016
fifth-rounder was fine. And it wasn't likely that offensive guard Manny Ramirez
was going to stick around, so it made sense to include him in the trade
package.</div>
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From there, Elway's strategy became clear about looking for
value. Some think offensive tackle Ty Sambrailo was taken a round too early,
but if that's who was at the top of the Broncos' draft board, then that's who
they should have taken if they weren't able to trade down. Always remember this rule of thumb when drafting: Trade down if you can, but if you can't, stick to
your board and don't worry about perceptions of reaching for a player.</div>
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I liked the Broncos' pick of tight end Jeff Heuerman in the
third round. Owen Daniels was a good value signing, but he isn't a long-term
solution, and Heuerman will get a couple of years to develop before entering
the starting lineup. Fourth-round pick Max Garcia is a versatile offensive lineman,
and it's clear that Gary Kubiak wants versatility out of most of those players.</div>
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Now comes the time when we find out who fits in where. At
this point, we can safely say that Ryan Clady and Louis Vasquez will have the
left tackle and right guard spots nailed down. I wouldn't rule out Michael
Schofield at right tackle just yet -- my hunch is that he will win the starting
job. Meanwhile, Sambrailo can be given time to develop. One thing to keep in
mind: Sambrailo might be a better fit at left tackle, but consider that Clady's
future beyond 2015 is uncertain, and the Broncos might view Sambrailo as the
guy who can replace him. At left guard and center, it remains to be seen who
will emerge, but having multiple players who can handle either position is
better than having multiple players who are a fit at just one position.</div>
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Then there's nose tackle, a position many wondered why the
Broncos didn't spent an earlier pick after Terrance Knighton departed in free
agency. Keep in mind that the Broncos aren't giving up on Williams just yet.
He'll enter training camp as the starter, and this season will tell whether or
not the Broncos will want to pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if Marvin Austin can provide the depth behind
him. If not, that's the reason why the Broncos took Darius Kilgo in the sixth
round, to give the Broncos depth, and perhaps a potential starter if Williams
doesn't pan out.</div>
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I remain skeptical about certain moves the Broncos didn't
make, such as not doing more to retain Orlando Franklin, and misjudging the
market for Rahim Moore. I didn't care for the Broncos' trade for Gino Gradowski,
in which they sent a fourth-round pick to the Ravens, even if they got a
fifth-round pick back. (Sending a sixth-round pick to Baltimore and getting a
seventh-round pick would have been better.) But, for the most part, the Broncos
minimized their offseason risks.</div>
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Looking at some other teams and what they did in the draft:</div>
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* The New York Jets did well for themselves. The problem I
saw under John Izdik was that he didn't make it clear enough to fans and
ownership that the team needed to rebuild. More importantly, he retained a head
coach whose mindset was that the Jets just needed to reload. New general
manager Mike Maccagnan started from scratch with the coaching staff and, while
his free agency moves indicated he wanted to reload, his draft showed he was
thinking as much about the future as he was about the present. Leonard Williams
was a great pick, Devin Smith was worth taking to develop behind Brandon
Marshall and Eric Decker, and the trade down with the Texans allowed the Jets
to accumulate more picks, after trading several away earlier in the offseason.
It was a step in the right direction, and perhaps the Jets can get back to
relevancy, as long as Maccagnan continues to project the idea that the team
wants to win now and in the future.</div>
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* The Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars are two teams
I see heading in the right direction. Each team was similar in that the
previous regime was making too many mistakes and every mistake kept setting back
the franchise.</div>
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Former owner Al Davis had done good things for the Raiders
in the past, but was too stubborn to adjust his approaches, and it led to a
string of poor personnel decisions. His son Mark is not without his faults, but
he's at least willing to admit he's never been the personnel guy his father
once was.</div>
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General manager Reggie McKenzie started slowly, but has
gotten better with his drafts each year. He did well to get Khalil Mack and
Derek Carr last year. There's still hope for 2013 first-round pick D.J. Hayden,
and while McKenzie did take him early in the draft, he made one move down the
board, then the time he spent making the selection suggested McKenzie was
trying to move down again. (Remember, the rule of thumb to
try to move down, but if you can't, stick to your board.)</div>
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This year, McKenzie
did well with his selections of Amari Cooper, Mario Edwards, and Clive Walford.
McKenzie was also wise to trade back twice on Day 3, allowing him to accumulate
more depth. The key, though, is for Mark Davis to remain patient with McKenzie,
allow the players to develop, and only insist on change if coaches aren't
working out.</div>
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The Jaguars, meanwhile, had been decimated by the constant
moves up the board by the previous regime. The mindset was clearly that the
Jaguars were just a few players away from returning to the playoffs, when the
reality was that it was time to rebuild. It wasn't just that the players they
selected didn't pan out, but what they gave up to get them.</div>
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It's still too early to judge Jacksonville's 2014 draft
class, but the good news is that Blake Bortles gets another year to develop a
rapport with receivers Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. There is still hope that
offensive tackle Luke Joeckel, the team's 2013 first-round pick, can get on
track. And this year, the Jaguars did well to get outside linebacker Dante
Fowler Jr. and running back T.J. Yeldon. It's understandable that head coach
Gus Bradley will need to show he can get the Jaguars to at least a .500 record
this year. But more importantly, it's imperative that patience be shown for
general manager David Caldwell, who is slowly getting out of the mess the
previous regime left him, and needs time to show what his work in the drafts
can yield.</div>
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* I've liked what I've seen from current Carolina Panthers
general manager Dave Gettleman the first two years he's drafted. His 2013
first-rounder, Star Lotulelei, has been very good, and 2014 first-rounder
Kelvin Benjamin looks like a keeper. And he's finally dug himself out of the
salary cap mess left for him, so he should be in position to get Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly extended.</div>
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But this year, Gettleman fell into the worst trap a general
manager can fall for: Panicking. This was the case when he traded up
for tight end Devin Funchess. Giving up third- and sixth-round picks was an
example of not minimizing risk. Additionally, Gettlemen's judgment that other
teams were going to draft receivers proved incorrect. That move reminds me of
when Mike Shanahan traded up to select Jarvis Moss, after limiting his board to
a select few players. I have no idea if Gettlemen limited his board, but
regardless, he gave up too much.</div>
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Now Gettlemen needs to hope that Michael Oher can turn things
around, or that fourth-round pick Daryl Williams can start at right tackle.
It's true you don't draft for need just to do so, but giving up those picks
might have cost Gettleman a chance to further help his team's situation.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-38754375162942651232015-04-29T13:18:00.003-07:002015-04-29T13:21:23.996-07:00Looking Back at Notable Draft Moves: Part Two<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
Picking up where I left on in my previous post about draft
day moves, let's take a look at the next few years for the notable moves up the
board and what the result was.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I stopped with judging such moves with the 2012 draft, as it
remains to be seen what will happen with the 2013 and 2014 draft classes. I
will briefly touch upon a couple of moves, though, to see what direction they
might be heading.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As we will learn, there were more moves up the board which either offered a mix of good and bad, or didn't really set the franchise back (at least not as much as other moves, anyway).<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2009: The Jets trade up for the sixth overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The New York Jets finished 9-7 in 2008 and just missed the
playoffs, so the belief was that they were just the right coach and the right
quarterback away from making such a trip. So Mike Tannebaum made the move up
the board to select quarterback Mark Sanchez. To get the sixth overall pick
from the Cleveland Browns, the Jets sent their first- and second-round picks,
along with three depth players (Abram Elam, Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff) to
make the move up the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Jets went to the AFC conference championship in
back-to-back seasons, but then became a mediocre team. Sanchez didn't show much
improvement as a passer, and thus wasn't worthy of being the No. 6 overall
pick. With that said, what really hurt the Jets was their lack of depth, as the
Jets made just three selections in the 2009 draft, trading away three of their
remaining picks to move up in the third round to select running back Shonn
Greene.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Honestly, the move is a bit hard to judge, because the Jets
didn't trade away their whole draft for Sanchez, and the move up to select
Greene probably did more harm. Also, the players the Jets traded away never
became impact players. On the other hand, Sanchez didn't pan out and the Jets became
mediocre in the long term.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Honestly, there's a mixture of good and bad that came out of
the deal to draft Sanchez. It's understandable if one calls it a bad move
because of what happened to the Jets in the long term, but it wasn't just that
move that proved costly, and it's not necessarily the most costly. <b>Indifferent.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2009: The Packers trade up for the 26th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before we get to the Green Bay Packers, a little backstory:
The Ravens moved up from the 26th spot in a draft-day trade with the Patriots. The
Packers then acquired the 26th overall pick from New England -- a trade back into the first
round as Green Bay already had the ninth overall pick -- by sending a second-round
pick (42nd overall) and two third-round picks. To complete the trade, the
Patriots sent a fifth-round pick to the Packers. Then comes the player the
Packers selected: linebacker Clay Matthews. Green Bay finished the draft with
eight total selections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Packers GM Ted Thompson doesn't trade up like this often, but this
move paid off for him. Matthews is Green Bay's top defensive player and
considered one of the best in the game. Green Bay also got mileage out of two
other selections: B.J. Raji and T.J. Lang. And after missing the playoffs in
2008, the Packers have not missed the playoffs since and have won a Super Bowl.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is another move up the board in which it's easy to make
the call: <b>Good move.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2010: The Chargers trade up for the 12th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The San Diego Chargers were emerging from the mediocre AFC
West as a team considered to have a good shot at going to the Super Bowl. That
might have prompted them to make the move up the board, in which they got the
12th overall pick from the Miami Dolphins. To make the trade happen, the
Chargers sent the 28th overall pick, plus their second- and fourth-round picks,
and linebacker Tim Dobbins, while the Dolphins sent their fourth- and
sixth-round selections along with the 12th pick. San Diego tabbed running back
Ryan Mathews with the 12th pick, and finished the draft with six selections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Mathews was a frustrating player, as he had a pair of
1,000-yard rushing seasons, but missed too many games with injuries. Linebacker
Donald Butler has been a solid starter, and cornerback Darrell Stuckey was a
solid depth player, but over the long term, the Chargers never did reach the
Super Bowl. Instead, they slid into mediocrity and both general manager A.J.
Smith and head coach Norv Turner lost their jobs in 2012.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It's another draft-day trade up the board that's tough to
judge. Again, you could lean toward it being a negative, as Mathews didn't live
up to expectations, but it wasn't exactly a move that massively set the franchise back. <b>Indifferent.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2010: The Broncos trade up for the 25th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Broncos' 2010 draft was interesting, as they twice moved
down the board, before moving up a couple of spots for wide receiver Demaryius
Thomas. Then comes the trade that got far more people talking: To get the 25th
overall pick from the Baltimore Ravens, the Broncos dealt a second-, a third-,
and a fourth-round pick. The player they chose: Tim Tebow.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We all know the story about Tebow, who provided anything
ranging from excitement to frustration, depending on the week and whoever you
talked to. In the long run, though, the coach who drafted him (Josh McDaniels)
was gone after the 2010 season and the Broncos traded Tebow to the Jets in the
2012 offseason for fourth- and sixth-round picks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The flipside is that the move up the board didn't really
jeopardize the Broncos' draft situation. Earlier in the first round, when they twice moved down, they gained two
third-round picks and one fourth rounder, and when the draft was finished, they
made nine total selections. Of those selections, they got mileage out of Thomas,
offensive guard Zane Beadles and wide receiver Eric Decker.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There will be those who point to Tebow's fans as not worth
the headache, but they aren't relevant to my criteria. What's relevant is that
Tebow wasn't the long-term solution at quarterback, but he had his moments and
the Broncos didn't hurt their overall draft in moving up for him. <b>Indifferent.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2011: The Falcons trade up for the sixth overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The2011 offseason was mostly quiet because most time was
spent getting a new collective bargaining agreement settled. The draft took
place as usual, though, and the Atlanta Falcons made headlines with a bold move
up the board. To get the sixth overall pick from the Cleveland Browns, the
Falcons dealt the 26th overall pick, a second-round pick, two fourth-rounds
picks, and their 2012 first-round pick. For all this, the Falcons drafted Julio
Jones. They finished the 2011 draft with six total selections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here's yet another move up the board that's difficult to
judge. Jones is a talented receiver, coming off his best season as a pro, with
104 receptions for 1,593 yards. But while the Falcons were coming off a 13-3
season, and made the playoffs the next two seasons, they followed with
back-to-back losing seasons. The lack of a first-round pick in 2012 may have
cost them a chance to get an impact player then. And the rest of the 2011 draft
didn't generate much, other than backup running back Jacquizz Rodgers and depth
player Cliff Matthews.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Jones has been a quality player, but his presence hasn't
been the difference between the Falcons simply making the playoffs, and
reaching the Super Bowl. It's a move up the board that definitely falls right
in the middle in terms of its impact. <b>Indifferent.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2012: Washington trades up for the second overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
You should be familiar with what happened on March 24, 2012.
That's the date when the St. Louis Rams found a taker for the second overall
pick. The Washington franchise came calling, dealing their first-round picks
for the next three seasons (the 2012 pick was sixth overall), plus a 2012
second-round pick. The player Washington wanted: quarterback Robert<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Griffin III. Washington made nine total
selections in 2012.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Again, I imagine everyone knows the story here. RG3
delivered plenty of excitement as a rookie and Washington made the playoffs,
but RG3 tore his ACL down the stretch and tried to play through it. The result
was an awful 2013 season that cost head coach Mike Shanahan his job, and since
then,RG3 has struggled, with some doubting he really has what it takes to be a
worthy starter.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Washington didn't hurt its overall 2012 draft, getting a
good starting running back in Alfred Morris and decent depth players such as offensive
lineman Tom Compton and linebacker Keenan Robinson. On the other hand, the
other two first-round picks Washington sent to St. Louis could have come in
handy in finding additional impact players.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Washington did pick up the option year on RG3's rookie
contract, but that may be less because they think he can revive his career, and
more because they aren't convinced they can find a better option in the draft
or free agency next year. I lean towards the negative here, because losing
those first-round picks from the past two seasons hasn't helped the team. But
maybe it's not too late for RG3 to turn it around. <b>Bad move, at least for now.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2012: The Browns trade up for the third overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When the first day of the draft started, everybody knew
Andrew Luck and RG3 would be the first two players off the board. The buzz now
focused on who would be next, and rumblings surrounded one player drawing
interest from multiple teams, to the point that Cleveland swapped picks with
the Minnesota Vikings to move up one spot. To get the third overall pick, the
Browns sent the fourth overall pick, plus fourth-, fifth-, and seventh-round
selections to Minnesota. Cleveland selected running back Trent Richardson, and
finished the draft with 11 selections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On the surface, this would appear to be a bad idea, given
what we know about Richardson. But looking a little deeper, Richardson ran for
950 yards and 11 touchdowns in his rookie season, which gave Browns fans some
hope. The Browns then appeared to give up quickly on him the next season,
sending him to the Colts for a first-round pick in 2014. That was when we saw
Richardson go downhill in terms of production, and Browns fans who were
frustrated felt some relief in getting a high pick for him.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As far as the 2012 draft overall went, the Browns found a
starter in offensive lineman Mitchell Stewart, and decent depth in defensive
linemen John Hughes and Billy Winn, and wide receiver Travis Benjamin. So it
wasn't like the move to get Richardson put the Browns in a bad draft position.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The truth is, the Browns' issues with failing to make the
playoffs have less to do with the move to get Richardson, and more to do with
constant turnover in the front office, and an owner that has done such a
haphazard job of overseeing the team. Richardson may not have been an impact
player, but the move to get him was far from one of the worst draft moves ever
made. <b>Indifferent.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And briefly looking at moves the last two years:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2013: The Rams trade up for the eighth overall pick</b> -- The
St. Louis Rams got that pick from the Buffalo Bills, along with the Bills'
third-round pick, for the 16th overall pick, a second-round pick, the Rams'
third-round pick, and a seventh-round pick. They selected wide receiver Tavon
Austin, who has been a fine return man, but has yet to become an impact player
at receiver. Perhaps 2015 could be the year?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2013: The Falcons trade up for the 22nd overall pick</b> -- The
Atlanta Falcons got this pick, plus a seventh-round pick in 2015, from the St.
Louis Rams, for the Falcons' first- (30th overall), third-, and sixth-round
selections. Atlanta selected cornerback Desmond Trufant, who has emerged into a
pretty good player. So far, so good.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2013: The Vikings trade up for the 29th overall pick</b> -- The
Minnesota Vikings traded back into the first round to get this pick from the
New England Patriots, sending their second-, third-, fourth-, and seventh-round
selections. The Vikings selected wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson, who was
fine as a rookie, but seems to fall out of favor with the coaching staff last
season. He'll need to break out this year for the Vikings' move to pay off.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2014: The Bills trade up for the fourth overall pick</b> -- The
Buffalo Bills got the pick from the Cleveland Browns, who got from the Bills
the ninth overall pick, and first- and fourth-round picks in 2015. Buffalo
selected wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who had a solid, but not spectacular,
rookie season. Watkins still has plenty of upside, but only time will tell if
the move was worth it.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-24133549211791348732015-04-29T09:49:00.000-07:002015-04-29T09:49:08.792-07:00Looking Back at Notable Draft Moves, Part One<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
Something that always generates buzz on, or just before, NFL
draft day is when a team makes a move up the board. Every time the likes of
Chris Berman or Rich Eisen announce that somebody has traded up in the first round,
the talk starts to focus on the top players still on the board and who everyone
expects to be the pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When a team makes a move up the board, it can have different
reasons for doing so. The trick, though, is to ensure you don't give up too
much in return to move up the board for a particular player, because you don't
want to chase after a player at the risk of hurting chance to improve your depth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Generally speaking, the best time to move up the board is
when you enter the draft with a lot of picks and your depth is in good shape
going into the season. And in such cases, it doesn't matter if some of those
picks are compensatory picks that can't be traded, because you are most likely
using those for depth, anyway. An example: You enter the draft with nine total
picks, your regular seven picks you get each year, plus two compensatory picks
in the fifth round. Your depth is good, but you have a strong need at one
position. So it makes sense to deal your own fifth-round pick -- or even your
own fourth-round pick -- to move a few spots up the board in the first or
second round, because those two compensatory picks you have in the fifth round
still give you the chance to further help your depth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It becomes riskier to make moves up the board when you don't
have many picks, or when you are depleting your depth. Enter the draft with six
picks, for example, and trading away two of your later picks to move up the
first round can come back to haunt you, because you miss the chance to improve
your depth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let's take a look back at some of the most notable moves up
the board, on or before draft day, in recent years. We'll start by going back
10 years ago, to 2005. I kept the focus on the first round of the draft, and graded
moves as either a good move, a bad move, or indifferent, based on the following
factors: What the player in question did for the team, how much the team who
drafted gave up to move up the board, how many picks the team had when the
draft was completed, and what became of the team from that point.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2005: Raiders make multiple draft moves for the 23rd overall
pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
An important point to make first: The Oakland Raiders
entered the draft with no first-round pick, having sent that to the Minnesota
Vikings the year before to acquire Randy Moss. So they had to do plenty of
wheeling and dealing to get back into the first round. They made two trades,
two days prior to the NFL draft, to do this.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first trade was with the New York Jets, in which the
Raiders sent their second-round pick, a pair of sixth rounders, and tight end
Doug Jolley, to get the Jets' first-round pick (26th overall) and a seventh-round
pick. Next, the Raiders took the 26th overall pick they just acquired, sending
it and a fourth-round pick, to the Seattle Seahawks to get the 23rd overall
pick. After all those moves, they selected cornerback Fabian Washington. When
the draft was over, the Raiders had made seven draft selections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The 2005 season was not a good one for the Raiders, as they
finished 4-12, and it wasn't until 2010 that they finished with at least a .500
record. Washington lasted three seasons before being traded to the Ravens, and
while Washington was a solid player, he was far from being an impact player. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although the Raiders made seven draft selections in 2005, the only one who
panned out was linebacker Kirk Morrison. So it's hard to argue that the moves
benefited the Raiders to any degree.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, there's only
one to grade this wheeling and dealing: <b>Bad move.</b></div>
<b></b><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2006: Steelers trade up for the 25th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Pittsburgh Steelers moved up seven spots in the first
round, getting this pick from the New York Giants in exchange for the Steelers'
first-, third-, and fourth-round selections. The Steelers finished the draft
with nine selections. And the player they drafted is one you have probably
heard of: wide receiver Santonio Holmes.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The rest of the story goes like this: The Steelers finished
the 2006 season 8-8, but two years later, won the Super Bowl. As it turns out,
the player they traded up for -- Holmes -- was the Super Bowl MVP, making
headlines for keeping his toes inbounds for the game-winning touchdown. Holmes got
better in each of his four seasons with the Steelers, catching 79 passes for
1,248 yards in his final year with the team. That was when Holmes made it clear
he wanted a new contract, and the Steelers decided to trade him to the Jets for
a fifth-round pick. Holmes might not have been an impact player, but the
Steelers got plenty out of him, and as for the rest of the 2006 draft, they got
a few good years out of offensive guard Willie Colon.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I lean toward this move working out for the Steelers, as
they got a fair amount in return and didn't put themselves into a bad situation
with the move up the board. <b>Good move.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2007: Jets trade up the 14th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The New York Jets were frequent draft-day moves during the
Mike Tannebaum years, and 2007 was no exception. On draft day, the Jets sent
their first-, second, and fifth-round picks to the Carolina Panthers for
Carolina's first- and sixth-round selections. When the draft was over, the Jets
made four draft-day selections, and their first-round prize is another guy you
probably know about: cornerback Darrelle Revis.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Tannebaum's propensity for moving up the board didn't always
work out for him (we'll get to more of that later), but the Jets finished 4-12
that year, then had three straight winning seasons, two with trips to the AFC
title game. Revis turned into one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, but became
known for wanting to maximize his contract value, which ultimately led to the
Jets dealing him to Tampa Bay for a first-round pick in 2013. Things have come
full circle, though, as Revis signed with the Jets as a free agent this
offseason.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As for the rest of the 2007 draft, the Jets got plenty out
of linebacker David Harris, so it wasn't as if that draft really decimated the
Jets' long-term prospects. So I lean toward this being a move that worked out
for the Jets. <b>Good
move.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2007: Broncos trade up for the 17th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Denver Broncos were entering their final years under
Mike Shanahan, and the longtime Broncos coach was desperate to get back into
the playoffs. So he sent first-, third-, and sixth-round picks to the
Jacksonville Jaguars to move up in the first round to select defensive end
Jarvis Moss. After the draft was over, the Broncos had made four selections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The events that unfolded make this draft-day move one of the
worst moves -- if not THE worst move -- up the board in Broncos history. The Broncos
endured two mediocre seasons before Shanahan was fired, housecleaning ensued
under Josh McDaniels (who had one mediocre and one bad season before departing), and history told everyone that the Broncos were only just
a few players away from being a playoff team because the AFC West as a whole
was mediocre to begin with. Moss had just 3.5 sacks in his first three seasons
with Denver, and he played nine games in 2010 before being cut.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The rest of the 2007 draft didn't go so well, either, as
offensive tackle Ryan Harris was the only player who became a key contributor.
Marcus Thomas did provide us with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDzt-pw1QJI" target="_blank">this highlight</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> as
a depth player, but the long-term effects of Shanahan's draft-day move make it
clear there's only one grade to give: <b>Bad move.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2008: Jaguars trade up for the 8th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The two draft-day moves for 2008 I'll review are related, as
each involve the Baltimore Ravens. They provide an exercise of the difference
between good teams and bad teams.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let's get back to the Jacksonville Jaguars: They sent the
26th overall pick, plus two third-round and one fourth-round pick, to move up for
the top-10 pick. Smith's selection was defensive end Derrick Harvey. The
Jaguars finished the draft with five selections.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Jaguars were coming off an 11-5 season, so no doubt they
were thinking they were just a few players away from a Super Bowl. Instead, the
Jaguars finished 5-11, and since that time, have had one .500 season and losing
seasons otherwise. Harvey never became an impact player, getting just eight
sacks in three seasons with the Jaguars before being waived. On top of that,
they got nothing out of their other five picks, other than a fifth-round pick
in a 2010 trade for 2008 second-round selection Quentin Groves.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The evidence is clear on this one: <b>Bad move.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2008: Ravens trade up for the 18th overall pick.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So let's go back to that trade the Baltimore Ravens made
with the Jaguars: The Ravens moved down from the eighth spot to the 26th spot
in the first round, then made a deal with the Texans to move up to the 18th spot.
The Ravens sent the 26th overall pick, one of the third rounders they acquired
from Jacksonville, and their own sixth-round pick. Once again, the player
selected is one you probably know: Joe Flacco. The Ravens made 10 total
selections in the draft.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Ravens went the opposite direction of the Jaguars. They
went from 5-11 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008 and have not had a losing record since.
Oh yeah, they also won a Super Bowl to close the 2012 season. One can argue whether or not
Flacco is an elite quarterback, but he's certainly proved to be a QB the Ravens
can build around. And the Ravens did get some mileage out of their 2008
second-round pick, Ray Rice.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Ravens' wheeling and dealing in the 2008 draft is an
example of how good Ozzie Newsome usually is in manipulating the draft board.
He got plenty in return for a move down the board, and it allowed him to safely
move back up the board for a player he wanted. This one is easy to judge: <b>Good
move.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>(Note: More reviews of draft day moves in Part Two.)</i></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-33560686637892453442015-04-17T12:20:00.002-07:002015-04-17T12:20:21.112-07:00Why Andrew Luck Won't Be Quick to Sign an Extension<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many NFL quarterbacks are up for extensions and, thus far,
just one recently agreed to an extension. That this is the case is not
surprising.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Pittsburgh Steelers recently agreed to a four-year
contract extension with Ben Roethlisberger, whose previous contract was set to
expire after this season. Two of his 2008 NFL draft classmates, Eli Manning and
Phillip Rivers, both enter the final years of their current contracts.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Additionally, several young quarterbacks are up for
extensions. The Panthers picked up the fifth-year option on Cam Newton's rookie
deal, but as he enters that year, he will certainly want a new contract. Russell
Wilson was a third-round pick of the Seahawks, and this will be the final year
of his rookie deal. Meanwhile, the Colts recently picked up the fifth-year
option on Andrew Luck's rookie deal, and he will be in line for a large
extension. The Dolphins are said to be interested in extending Ryan Tannehill,
but it shouldn't be long before the team picks up the fifth-year option on his
rookie deal.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The quarterbacks and their agents are no doubt looking at
Roethlisberger's extension, in which he received $65M in guaranteed money with
a $31M signing bonus. From a practical standpoint, Roethlisberger is set to
collect all that guaranteed money in the next three years, meaning he collects
more than $22M per year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Thus the bar has been set for the other quarterbacks. It's
hard to see most of the QBs mentioned taking anything less than $20M per year
in an extension. Their situations vary, but for some, the contracts they get
will depend on what other QBs similar to them have received.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Meanwhile, there has been puzzlement over why the Colts haven't started talking to Luck about an extension. There's a reason why, and it has nothing to do with the Colts not wanting him to stick around. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To understand that reason, let's look at the most notable quarterbacks and their
situations:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Phillip Rivers:</b> We'll start with the quarterback who does
not appear to be sticking with his current team after his deal expires. Rivers averaged
$15.3M per year under his current deal. Unlike Roesthlisberger and fellow 2008
NFL draft classmate Eli Manning, Rivers has never played in a Super Bowl.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, Rivers will no doubt have his eyes on the contract
Jay Cutler received. Cutler averages $18.1M in his deal, and Rivers has far
more playoff trips than Cutler. It's hard to see Rivers taking anything less
than $19M per year in an extension, regardless of where he signs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Setting aside the question of what the Chargers should do
with Rivers now, there is the question of what he is worth for an extension. I
would say an extension for him should run through 2019, as is the case with
Roethlisberger. Assuming the Chargers trade him to another team this offseason,
Rivers would likely get a deal averaging $20M per year, which would put him
near the level of Matt Ryan. Such a deal would likely tie the team who gets him
through 2017, but then be able to part ways with him if his play declines.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Eli Manning:</b> Eli averaged $16.25M per year under his current
deal, slightly more than Rivers. Once again, Eli is not likely to take less per
year than Cutler received. More importantly, Eli could be in position to argue
that he is worthy of a deal similar to Roethlisberger, given that he has won
two Super Bowls, just as Roethlisberger has.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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The flipside, of course, is that Eli has not shown the
consistency that Roethlisberger has demonstrated. In 2013, Eli threw more interceptions
than touchdowns, and last year, while his numbers improved, the Giants still
missed the playoffs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Whether or not one thinks the Giants need to move on from
Eli after this season, the question remains as to what numbers he'll likely
command in an extension. Eli is a year older than Rivers and Roethlisberger, so assuming he
doesn't sign an extension until after the season, he's probably looking at four
years, in which he averages $21M per year, but with only two seasons' worth of
guaranteed money. That allows a team to get out of the deal after two years if
he regresses.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Russell Wilson:</b> For the young quarterbacks, we'll start with
the one who is the most noteworthy candidate for an extension, given that he
has appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls and won one of them. Wilson doesn't
put up gaudy numbers, but is known for his work ethic and has steadily improved
his play each season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Seahawks would certainly like to get Wilson extended,
but the question is how much are they willing to spend to do it. Ideally, the
Seahawks would like to keep his salary at a reasonable level to allow them to
retain key defensive players. Given that Seattle is known more for how well it
plays defense and how well it runs the ball, the front office probably isn't interested
in putting up more than $20M per year for a quarterback.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But Seattle might not have a choice in the matter. Wilson
certainly isn't taking an Andy Dalton type of deal -- Dalton averages $16M per
year and could be gone after this season if he doesn't improve as a passer. Nor
will Wilson take a Colin Kaepernick type of deal that hinges on incentives,
given that he has been so successful in the playoffs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Realistically, Wilson's contract could very well put him around $21M per year and
his agent will likely insist on two years of full guarantees. That demand would
only become stronger if Wilson isn't extended by the time the playoffs begin, and then the Seahawks win the Super Bowl again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I suspect, when all is said and done, Wilson will get paid a
healthy sum, regardless of the team. The question is whether the Seahawks
ultimately concede the point and give Wilson such an extension, or if he takes
his chances with another team.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Cam Newton:</b> There will be plenty of debate about exactly how
much Newton is worth in an extension. On one hand, Newton hasn't had a strong
season, statistically speaking, since his rookie campaign. On the other hand,
the Panthers are coming off back-to-back playoff trips, and Newton won his
first playoff game last year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Additionally, Newton was drafted at a time in which the
Panthers were digging out of a bad salary cap situation, that required an
overhauling of the roster that hasn't yet been finished. So one might argue
that too much of a load has been put on Newton, and it's hard to assign him all
the blame for not reaching the numbers he posted as a rookie.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At this point, Newton looks like a quarterback who may have
to settle for a Kaepernick type of deal. With that said, that is no doubt a
reason why you aren't hearing talk about an extension from the Panthers just
yet. Newton and his agent are likely hoping that the young QB can increase his
leverage if the Panthers make the playoffs again, and make a deep run. If the
Panthers reach the Super Bowl, Newton's leverage definitely increases.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
More than likely, Newton will get a deal that averages close to $20M
per year, but is structured so that he gets two years, and then it remains to
be seen what happens after that. The only question is whether it's with the Panthers
or another team.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Ryan Tannehill:</b> Let's get the Dolphins' QB out of the way
first. Tannehill hasn't reached the playoffs yet, so he's not going to have the
leverage of the other QBs mentioned so far. With that said, Tannehill has
steadily improved each season. After throwing just 12 touchdowns with 13
interceptions as a rookie, he doubled his TD tally with 17 picks, then reduced
his picks to 12 while throwing 27 TDs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This will be the crucial season for Tannehill, as the next
step for him to get a big payday in his next extension, is to get to the
playoffs. And while there was talk that the Dolphins might already consider an
extension, it would be a bit of surprise if they reached one this offseason.
The Dolphins likely want to find out if Tannehill can keep improving, and I
would imagine Tannehill's agent would hope for a playoff trip, so he can get
more money for his client.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It does make sense for the Dolphins to pick up the
fifth-year option on the rookie deal. Then, if the Dolphins reach the playoffs
this season, it makes sense for them to give Tannehill a contract similar to
Andy Dalton. Tannehill is a better QB than Dalton in terms of skill, but lacks
the playoff trips Dalton has, so a deal that averages $16M per year, and
effectively guarantees money for two years, would work out well for the
Dolphins. Of course, if Tannehill shows a lot of improvement, along with a
playoff trip, he might seek more money per year than Dalton got in his deal.</div>
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<b>Andrew Luck:</b> And thus we come to arguably the best young QB
in the NFL. I think everyone is familiar with Luck's career so far, and the
Colts certainly expect a Super Bowl trip this year. And that's exactly the
reason why it may be in the Colts' best interest to get an extension done
quickly, but it's not in Luck's interest.</div>
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Let's review: You have one QB in his mid 30s who has two
Super Bowl trips and got an extension in which he should collect more than $22M
per year for the next three years. You have another QB in his mid 30s with two
Super Bowl trips, and who will be seeking similar money. You have a young QB with
two Super Bowl trips, and who will likely want to be paid at least $20M per year.
And you have two other young QBs, one with playoff trips and another without,
who are likely to command contracts at least $16M per year, and could possibly
approach $20M per year, depending on circumstances.</div>
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Knowing these things, if you were Andrew Luck, why would you
accept a deal right away that would get you $20M per year, which is certainly a
lot of money, but could pale in comparison to money other QBs receive, or is a
salary that isn't that much more than QBs who may be franchise players, but
aren't as talented as you are?</div>
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<br /></div>
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It's not difficult to figure out what Luck and his agent --
who happens to be his uncle -- will want: To make Luck the highest paid QB in
the NFL. And they won't know what figures to ask for until the likes of Eli,
Rivers, Wilson, and possibly Newton and Tannehill, will get.</div>
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<br /></div>
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There is zero reason for Luck to sign an extension right
now. The Colts aren't planning to trade him, there is no evidence his play is
about to rapidly regress, and given that his $16.1M fifth-year option (which
the Colts have picked up) is guaranteed for injury, Luck doesn't have to worry
about a season-ending injury costing him a lot of money. (His current year
salary of $3.4M is fully guaranteed.)</div>
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<br /></div>
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So Luck and his agent will sit back and wait. And when they are ready to seriously start talking about an extension, don't be surprised if Luck and his agent
seek a contract averaging as much as $24M per year with at least two years of full guarantees -- especially if Luck leads
the Colts to a Super Bowl win this season. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-8984457278309546212015-04-16T14:10:00.000-07:002015-04-16T14:11:17.940-07:002015 NFL Mock Draft With Projected Trades<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]-->With yesterday's overview of team needs and the likelihood
of teams wanting to move up or down the board, I now present my 2015 NFL mock
draft.
<br />
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Before I get to it, I examined a couple of references to
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">which are <a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/" target="_blank">Chase Stuart's draft value chart, alongside Jimmy Johnson's draft pick values</a>, </span>and
Over the Cap's <a href="http://overthecap.com/2016-compensatory-draft-picks-update-432015/" target="_blank">projected compensatory picks for 2016</a>, which plays as much a
role in determining which teams might be willing to part with a pick in next
year's draft (as will be the case with one team I have making a move up the board
in the first round).<br />
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In most cases, I considered the biggest needs for a team,
but in a few cases, I went with players teams might find too good to pass up,
particularly if another need is filled.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Now let's get the party started.</div>
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<br /></div>
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1. Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston, QB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Every indicator is that the Bucs will go with
Winston as their top choice. Quarterback is a need, as the Bucs are clearly not
sold on Mike Glennon.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2. Tennessee - Leonard Williams, DE</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: I really believe the Titans should select Marcus
Mariota. However, I suspect they will lean toward a player who can adapt to any
scheme, which is a good thing if a regime change ever takes place. Willliams is
that type of player. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3. Jacksonville - Vic Beasley, OLB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning - Sure, Dante Fowler Jr. is right there, but we've
seen how Jaguars GM David Caldwell operates. Nobody was expecting him to take
Blake Bortles in 2014, and that's exactly what he did. It would not surprise me
to see Caldwell opt for another top-rated pass rusher.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4. Oakland - Kevin White, WR</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Raiders could take Fowler if they wanted him,
but I think it makes more sense to get a playmaker for the offense. That's what
White gives the team</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Washington trades the No. 5 pick to Cleveland for the No. 12
pick, the No. 43 (2nd round) pick, and the No. 147 (5th round) pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Washington would really benefit from moving down
the board, as their biggest needs are at positions at which they can get better
value by moving down, plus they need additional picks for depth. Cleveland is
likely trying to make that final push to the playoffs, and isn't sold on Johnny
Manziel. This trades gives Washington 1,702.6 points in return. You can
probably see the pick that's coming</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5. Cleveland<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>- Marcus
Mariota, QB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Given that the Browns aren't sold on Manziel, I
expect them to make the strongest push to move up for Mariota. The Browns could
then put Manziel on the trading block, seeking a mid-round pick in 2015 and a
conditional pick in 2016.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6. New York Jets - Dante Fowler Jr., OLB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: It would surprise some if Fowler fell to the
Jets, but if that happens, he's an easy pick for them. Fowler gives new head
coach Todd Bowles a quality pass rusher.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
7. Chicago - Arik Armstead, DT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: It might be considered a reach, but the defensive
line is where the Bears need the most help. Trading down is certainly an
option, but I don't know think they'll be able to make a move down the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
8. Atlanta - Shane Ray, DE</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: It would be surprising if the Falcons didn't take
a pass rusher in the first round. Ray is the best one available at this point.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The New York Giants trade the No. 9 overall pick to New
Orleans for the No. 13 pick and the No. 78 (3rd round from Dolphins) pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Giants need to move down the board to get
better value at the positions at which they need the most help. With the top
pass rushers going off the board, and New Orleans needing defensive help, they
move up, knowing they have the picks to work with. As it turns out, the pick
they deal is the one they got from Miami in the Kenny Stills trade, and the
value points come out perfectly for the No. 9 overall pick (1,350 points).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
9. New Orleans - Bud Dupree, OLB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Dupree's stock is rising and there will likely be
some teams wanting to move up the board if they covet one. The Saints make the
move to get a player who will help.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
10. St. Louis - D.J. Humphries, OT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: While I had considered Brandon Schrieff here, it
seems more likely that the Rams will select an offensive tackle instead.
Humphries is one of the top-rated tackles.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
11. Minnesota - Brandon Schreff, OG</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: An offensive tackle could be considered, but the
Vikings need help on the interior of the line. Schreff is considered the best
overall offensive <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>lineman in the draft.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
12. Washington - La'El Collins, OT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Any offensive tackle might be considered a reach
in the top five this year, but Washington gets better value and immediate help
up front.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
13. New York Giants - Landon Collins, S</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The best safety in the draft is exactly the type
of player the Giants need, and he's better value at this point.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
14. Miami - Amari Cooper, WR</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The best pass rushers are off the board, and the
Dolphins are certainly looking to make that final push to the playoffs. So I
would expect them to go for the best receiver available. I imagine the Dolphins
would be thrilled if Cooper fell this far.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
15. San Francisco - Trae Waynes, CB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Cornerback is the biggest need for the Niners,
and this is about the right spot to take the highest-rated corner on the board.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Houston trades the No. 16 overall pick to Baltimore for the
No. 26 pick, the No. 90 (3rd round) pick and the Ravens' 2016 fourth-round pick.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: It's not often you see the Ravens make such a
move, but they are in good position to do so. They enter the draft with 10
total picks, so they are in position to part with one from this year's draft.
As for next year's draft, the Ravens gained a fourth-round pick in a trade with
the Broncos, and they should get two compensatory picks in that round because
of free agent departures (check the compensatory draft pick chart for that
info). So Baltimore can safely deal its own 2016 fourth rounder.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
16. Baltimore - Breshad Perriman, WR</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Wide receiver is the Ravens' greatest need and
Perriman could be exactly the type to help Joe Flacco succeed. Again, if there
ever was a year for Ozzie Newsome to make a bold move, this is the year to do
it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
17. San Diego - Andrus Peat, OT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Chargers no doubt have great interest in
Mariota, but I'm not expecting a trade to happen unless it involves multiple
draft picks. That's too risky for San Diego, so it makes more sense to draft
offensive line help.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
18. Kansas City - DeVante Parker, WR</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: I had considered having the Chiefs move up the
board, but they really don't need to. And while defensive line help would be
good, I suspect they'll want another receiver to pair with Jeremy Maclin.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
19. Cleveland - Danny Shelton, DT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Browns may need a receiver with Josh Gordon's
future in doubt, but Shelton is too good to pass up at this spot, and fills
another need.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
20. Philadelphia - Jalen Collins, CB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Although cornerback isn't that great of a need,
Collins may be too good for the Eagles to pass up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
21. Cincinnati - Danny Gregory, OLB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Teams may shy away from Gregory given his failed
marijuana test at the combine, but his talent would be too much for the Bengals
to pass up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
22. Pittsburgh - Marcus Peters, CB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Ike Taylor's retirement makes the secondary a
major priority for the Steelers. Peters would fill that need.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
23. Detroit - Eddie Goldman, DT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Lions did acquire Haloti Ngata, but could use
another defensive lineman, so Goldman makes sense.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
24. Arizona - Melvin Gordon, RB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Cardinals really need pass rushing help, but
they can probably find better value in later rounds. Meanwhile, they need a
running back and Gordon is the best one available.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
25. Carolina - Ereck Flowers, OT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Panthers need help on the offensive line,
perhaps more than any other position.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
26. Houston - Eric Kendricks, ILB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Kendricks might be thought of as an early
second-round pick, but it's not that much of a reach here.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
27. Dallas - Malcom Brown, DT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: It would be tempting to take Todd Gurley, but
remember that the Cowboys found DeMarco Murray in the third round. Better to
get some defensive help and find a running back later.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
28. Denver - T.J. Clemmings, OT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The offensive line is where the Broncos need the
most help. Clemmings has been compared to Duane Brown, a Texans' offensive
linemen when Gary Kubiak was head coach there.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
29. Indianapolis - Todd Gurley, RB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: The Colts may have signed Frank Gore, but they
need a younger running back to pair with him. Gurley is a good fit.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
30. Green Bay - Kevin Johnson, CB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Johnson has been compared to another Packers
cornerback, Sam Shields. Sounds like the type of player Green Bay would want.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
31. New Orleans - Jordan Phillips, DT</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Not only could the Saints use a pass rusher, they
need a defensive tackle who can stop the run. Phillips can do that well.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
32. New England - Byron Jones, CB</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reasoning: Trading out of this spot is a possibility, but
I'm not certain somebody will want to move up to this spot. So the Patriots
fill their biggest need. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-83068202163160100802015-04-15T14:03:00.001-07:002015-04-15T19:03:54.333-07:00Mock Draft Prep: Likeliness of First-Round Movement<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
As I prepare to consider my mock draft for this year, I
start with the first considerations about each team's needs and the chances of
them making a move.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This year, the draft class features plenty of talent at wide
receiver and multiple quality pass rushers. The running back class is deep,
although nobody stands out as a game changer. Everyone knows about the top two
QB prospects, and after that, the best prospects may be third-round picks at
best. There are some good offensive linemen, but not that many worthy of a high
pick. Cornerback depth is good, while safety depth is not.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This year's draft is expected to see pass rushers and
receivers go early, but not every team who drafts in the top 10 has a pressing
need for them. Several of these teams will likely want to trade down, but the
question is, are there teams willing to trade up with them?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before I actually get to my mock draft, I want to consider
the likelihood of teams wanting to trade up or down in the first round. I
assumed the teams with the second through fifth overall picks aren't looking to
move up the board, but did consider which teams drafting near the end of the
first round, might want to trade out. I considered the likelihood of teams
moving up or down based on what their biggest needs are, and whether or not it
makes sense to move up to fill those needs, or if the needs could be better
addressed by moving down the board. (For fun, I looked at the two teams with no
first-round pick and considered whether or not they would move up or down in
the second round.)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Figuring out which teams are more likely to want to move up
or down, gives us a better idea of what draft-day moves could take place, and
allows us to projects trades in a mock draft.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Teams are listed by positions of need and number of picks
(with number of compensatory picks, which cannot be traded, in parentheses)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1. Tampa Bay</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Quarterback, offensive tackle, defensive
end</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 8</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Only if somebody approaches them with an
RG3-type trade. That's highly unlikely.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2. Tennessee</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Quarterback, wide receiver, offensive
tackle, running back</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Given that the Titans reportedly aren't
interested in Marcus Mariota, and that offensive tackle and wide receiver are
bigger needs than defensive help, it would be in the Titans' best interest to
move down and trade with any team that is interested in Mariota. The Titans
have six picks and need lots of help on offense, so more draft picks would
help.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3. Jacksonville</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Cornerback, defensive end, center, safety</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 7</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - If Mariota is still available, the Jaguars would
be in good position to trade down, meaning they can acquire additional picks
and get better value in drafting for their needs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4. Oakland</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Wide receiver, cornerback, safety,
defensive end</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 7</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - The Raiders have shown a willingness to trade
down, as long as they remain confident they can still get the player they want.
The wide receiver class is deep this year, so if somebody wants to move to this
spot to get a player they really covet, the Raiders will listen to offers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5. Washington</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Safety, inside linebacker, offensive
tackle, cornerback</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 7</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Among the teams drafting in the top five,
Washington has the biggest motivation for trading down, because it needs to
improve at several positions and improve its depth. But the best value at this
point is in pass rushers and wide receivers, which aren't Washington's biggest
needs. Thus, a trade down makes the most sense.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6. New York Jets</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Quarterback, outside linebacker, running
back, safety</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 6</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - That depends how badly they want Mariota. If the
Jets are worried that somebody will trade up for him, then they might want to
talk to the Titans. If they aren't interested in Mariota, then they have no
reason to move up.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Again, this goes back to Mariota. If the Jets
want him, they should take him if he falls here. If they don't want him, or
he's not available, then trading down would be a good option. The Jets could
use a pass rusher, so they don't want to move too far down the board, but
moving down a couple of spots with a team that needs a wide receiver, would
give them more picks to fill needs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
7. Chicago</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Defensive line, linebacker, cornerback,
wide receiver.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 6</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - Unless the Bears absolutely believe they can't
do without a player like Leonard Williams, they shouldn't move up the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - This all depends on whether or not they
believe a player they like will still be on the board if they move down a
couple of spots. An extra draft pick certainly wouldn't hurt.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
8. Atlanta</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Pass rusher, running back, offensive line</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 8</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - We've seen Atlanta make bold moves up the draft
board before, but that was when they picked late in the first round. There
isn't a pressing need for Atlanta to move up from here, unless they fall in
love with somebody like Leonard Williams.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Only if all the pass rushers they like are
gone, but that doesn't seem likely. The only other reason to move down is
somebody offering a Sammy Watkins-type deal.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
9. New York Giants</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Safety, offensive line, tight end,
linebacker</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 8</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - No. There isn't a safety or offensive lineman
worth moving up the board to get.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - This would make more sense. If the Giants can
find a team who wants to move up the board, a trade down would make sense to
gain an additional pick, and get better value in the first round.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
10. St. Louis Rams</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Offensive line, cornerback, linebacker</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 6 (1 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - No. There's no reason to move up the board for
an offensive lineman.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - That depends. Certainly, the Rams would
benefit from acquiring an extra pick, and they would certainly take an offer
that's too good to pass up. But if all the offensive linemen prospects remain
on the board, it will be tough for another team to convince the Rams to trade
down.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
11. Minnesota</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Middle linebacker, offensive guard,
running back, cornerback</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 7</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - No. The Vikings have no reason to trade up for
their positions of need.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - It would make sense for the Vikings to move
down the board to get better value at the positions where they need help.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
12. Cleveland</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Quarterback, wide receiver, tight end,
defensive end</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 10</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - And here's one of the more likely candidates to
want to move up the board. If they can't get Mariota, they will probably have
their eyes on the top wide receivers. They have 10 picks, none of them
compensatory, so they can deal whatever picks they want.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - If they can't trade up from this spot, they'll
likely stay put and draft the best wide receiver available -- unless Mariota falls
to them at this spot.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
13. New Orleans</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Defensive line, linebacker, cornerback,
offensive line</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 9</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Saints have done it in years past, and while
that's mostly happened when they have drafted late, they have the picks
available to move up a couple of spots if they see a defensive lineman they
like.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Probably not from this spot. If they don't
move up from 13, they are more likely to stay put and take the player they
want.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
14. Miami</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Linebacker, cornerback, wide receiver,
safety</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 6</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - You would think the Dolphins might consider
moving up the board to get a receiver they like, but they'd take a lot of risk,
given that they just have six picks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? Not from this spot. The most likely scenario is
the Dolphins drafting the receiver they want at this spot. A trade down in the
second round to obtain an extra pick isn't out of the question, though.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
15. San Francisco 49ers</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Cornerback, inside linebacker, offensive
guard, defensive line</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - Not for the positions where they need the most
help.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - They already have nine picks, but they might
consider moving down a couple of spots if the right offer comes along.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
16. Houston</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Inside linebacker, wide receiver,
quarterback, outside linebacker</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 10 (3 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - As with the Niners, not for the positions where
they need the most help.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Again, a similar situation to the Niners: They
have plenty of picks, but the right offer to move down could be accepted.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
17. San Diego</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Outside linebacker, offensive guard, wide
receiver, defensive line.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 6</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - We've heard the stories about the Chargers'
interest in Marcus Mariota, and they could offer Phillip Rivers as part of a
trade to move up. If a team demands draft picks, it could be tougher for the
Chargers to make a move, as they have just six picks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - If they don't make a move up the board to
draft Mariota, they are not likely to trade down from this spot.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
18. Kansas City</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Defensive end, wide receiver, center,
inside linebacker</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 10 (four compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Chiefs have a compensatory pick in the third
round, and while they can't trade it, the other third-round pick they have
could become part of a package to move up for a pass rusher or wide receiver.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - I would not expect them to do this.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
19. Cleveland (from Buffalo)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up from this spot? - If the Browns made a move up from
No. 10 overall, there's a chance this pick could have been part of the trade.
If they don't move up from No. 10, they aren't likely to move up from No. 19</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down from this spot? - If they still draft at this
spot, they probably won't trade down from it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
20. Philadelphia</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Wide receiver, offensive guard, safety</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 8</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The talk about the Eagles wanting Mariota seems
to have died down, so I would imagine the answer is "no" to any moves
up the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Most likely, the Eagles won't look to trade
down, but could do so with the right offer.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
21. Cincinnati</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Outside linebacker, defensive end,
quarterback</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Bengals may need a pass rusher, but they
have not recently been a team that makes big moves up the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Not likely. The Bengals will most likely stay
put and take the best pass rusher available.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
22. Pittsburgh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Outside linebacker, safety, cornerback</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 8 (1 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Steelers are not known for moving up the
board. Don't bet on it happening this year, either.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - As with the Bengals, bet on the Steelers
staying put and taking the best player available.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
23. Detroit</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Defensive tackle, running back, offensive
lineman, cornerback</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 6</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - Don't bet on it, not with just six picks to work
with.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Moving down a couple of spots, while gaining
an extra pick, could be a good move.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
24. Arizona</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Pass rusher, running back, center,
defensive tackle</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 8 (1 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Cardinals may need pass rushing help, but
it's highly unlikely they make a bold move up the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - If the right offer comes along, they may be
willing to slide down a couple of spots.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
25. Carolina</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Offensive tackle, cornerback, wide
receiver, defensive end</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - Not for the positions they need to fill.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - The Panthers are yet another team not looking
to trade down.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
26. Baltimore</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Wide receiver, cornerback, tight end,
defensive end</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 10 (3 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - Call it a remote possibility. The Ravens are
generally not known for making bold moves up the board, unless they made a move
down the board and can afford to make one back up the board (as was the case
the year they drafted Joe Flacco). But the fourth- and fifth-round picks they
got from the Lions could come into play.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down?- If they don't trade up, they won't trade down.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
27. Dallas</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Defensive line, cornerback, running back,
safety</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 7</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - We've seen Jerry Jones and company make moves up
the board before, but it's not likely happening this year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - The Cowboys are another team not likely to
trade down.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
28. Denver</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Offensive line, safety, inside
linebacker, tight end</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 10 (4 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Broncos might be willing to move up a couple
of spots if an offensive lineman they like falls down the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - Only if they don't see any offensive linemen
they like, and can get good value in return from a move down the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
29. Indianapolis</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Safety, center, running back, outside
linebacker</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 9 (1 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - No. There's no reason to move up the board to
fill their greatest needs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - The Colts will likely stay put at this spot.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
30. Green Bay</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Cornerback, inside linebacker, tight end</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 9 (2 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Packers are not known for doing this. (UPDATE: The Packers did make a move up the draft board when they selected Clay Matthews. I would not expect them to trade up this year, though.)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down? - The Packers are the most likely candidate to
trade out of the first round, pick up an early second-round pick, and another
pick or two. If a team wants to trade back into the first round, this is the
most likely spot it will happen.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
31. New Orleans (from Seattle)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up from this spot? - Very unlikely to happen.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade down from this spot? - Ditto.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
32. New England</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Positions of need: Cornerback, offensive guard, defensive
tackle, running back</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Total picks: 9 (3 compensatory)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Trade up? - The Patriots do this once in a while, but they
have no reason to do it for the positions they need to fill.</div>
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the right offer comes along. If nobody trades with Green Bay for the No. 30
overall pick, there's a good chance somebody will trade with the Patriots.
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<br /></div>
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Buffalo</div>
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First pick: Second round, 18th pick (No. 50 overall)</div>
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Positions of need: Quarterback, offensive line, inside
linebacker</div>
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Total picks: 6</div>
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Trade up? - They don't have enough picks to do so.</div>
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Trade down? - Not likely to happen in the second round.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Seattle</div>
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First pick: Second round, 31st pick (63rd overall)</div>
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Positions of need: Offensive guard or center, wide receiver,
cornerback</div>
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Total picks: 11 (4 compensatory)</div>
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Trade up? - A move up the board in the second round is
possible, as they have a few later-round picks to work with.</div>
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Trade down? - Not out of the second round.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-13748649199494525962015-03-27T07:54:00.000-07:002015-03-27T07:54:11.462-07:00Exercise in Draft Pick Retention Part 3: Broncos and Current Approaches<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
The past two days, I have examined how many draft picks the
Ravens, Patriots and Packers have retained under the current people making
personnel decisions. As we have observed, not every draft pick was retained
after their rookie deals expired, but those that were, were long-time
contributors to the franchise, and of those players who did not stay with the
franchise for long, not many of them went on to long NFL careers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So what does this mean for the Broncos? To determine that,
we must remember that the landscape for rookie contracts has changed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For draft picks from 2010 and earlier, rookie contracts
tended to be five or six years for first rounders, four or five for second
rounders, and four for all other draft picks. Now, it's four years for all
draft picks, except first-round picks have a club option for a fifth year.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given the different structure for rookie contracts, what should
the teams that draft well consider First, they want first-round picks that play
well enough to make it worth picking up that fifth-year option. Because it must
be exercised before the player's fourth season begins, you have three years to
evaluate. If you do pick up the option, then that's a sign you want to keep
this player for the long term. If you don't, it's a wasted pick. (Note: A team
could certainly choose not to pick up the option, but re-sign the player if the
team sees improvement in his fourth season. But if that were to happen, it's a
sign the team overdrafted the player by a round or two, so it's still not the
best use of a first-round pick.) </div>
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<br /></div>
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For the rest of the draft picks, think of it this way:
Second round picks should be good starters that you may want to keep for the
long term, but there may be occasions when you are unable to do so. Third and
fourth rounders should contribute in some form for their four years, but you
are not necessarily counting on them staying past their rookie deals, unless
your first- and second-round picks don't pan out. Fifth through seventh
rounders should ideally contribute, but could get beaten out by other players
fighting for roster spots, be they fringe veterans or undrafted rookies. If a
pick in the last three rounds is worth keeping, chances are you'll get him at a
low cost.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
How have those three teams we've discussed approached more
recent drafts? The Ravens have picked up the option on 2011 first-round pick
Jimmy Smith and had no first rounder in 2012. In 2012, they selected Courtney
Upshaw and Kelechi Osemele in the second round, and it seems reasonable that
the Ravens will want to retain one of them. The Patriots picked up the option
on 2011 first-round pick Nate Solder and have re-signed 2011 fifth-round pick
Marcus Cannon. It is almost certain they will pick up the options on the rookie
deals for 2012 first rounders Chandler Jones and Donta Hightower. The Packers
not only didn't pick up the option for 2011 first rounder Derek Sherrod, but
cut him midway through the season. On the other hand, they did extend 2011
second rounder Randall Cobb. It remains to be seen if Green Bay will pick up
the rookie deal option for 2012 first rounder Nick Perry, but it seems likely
they will want to retain second-round pick Casey Hayward.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In each case, you can see that the teams continued, or are
likely to continue, their tendency of retaining at least one player from their
draft classes. The Ravens and Patriots each had a first-round pick in 2011 that
they want to retain, given that they picked up the options. So how does
everything we have gone over apply to Denver?</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If you look at the players who the Broncos drafted, who were
still with the franchise when John Elway took over, he has focused his
attentions on re-signing a few players. He put the franchise tag on 2008
first-round pick Ryan Clady, then signed him to an extension, and now, Clady
will enter his eighth season with the Broncos. He then re-signed David Bruton,
a fourth-round pick in 2009, and once he finishes his current contract, he will
have been with the Broncos for seven seasons. Elway also placed the franchise
tag on Demaryius Thomas, a 2010 first-round pick, and this will be the sixth
season Thomas will have been with the franchise. Again, Elway's approach has
been similar to the other teams we've discussed, in that he has focused on
keeping a first-round pick who was worth retaining, while looking closely at
players taken in later rounds to determine who is worth keeping, even though
Elway didn't draft any of these players.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then we come to the 2011 draft class. They have picked up
the rookie deal option for 2011 first rounder Von Miller, and it is a given
that they will eventually extend him. They retained 2011 seventh rounder Virgil
Green at a low cost. They probably would have wanted to keep 2011 second
rounder Orlando Franklin, but then 2011 undrafted rookie Chris Harris came
along and became an impact player (thus an exception to the rule about
second-round picks came up).</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Broncos had no 2012 first-round pick, so now they can
focus attention on second-round picks Derek Wolfe and Brock Osweiler, the
latter who won't demand a big contract at this point. They will have to figure
out what to do with Omar Bolden, Malik Jackson, and Danny Trevathan, because
not all three will be re-signed at a low cost, but I would expect Denver to
retain at least one of those players.</div>
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But the bottom line is this: The best organizations know
they won't keep every draft pick, especially when certain picks command big
money. And in most cases, the picks they allowed to depart, were the right
calls.</div>
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Elway seems to understand this, and so far, his pattern of
which draft picks to retain follows those franchises who draft well. What Elway
must continue to do, is keep drafting well.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-18322965840769597282015-03-26T13:23:00.001-07:002015-03-26T13:23:33.436-07:00Exercises in Draft Pick Retention, Part Two: Patriots and Packers<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Yesterday I examined the Baltimore Ravens and how many of
their draft picks the team chose to re-sign, through the 2010 draft. As we reviewed,
the picks the Ravens kept for many years were usually their first-round picks,
with a few in other rounds that have become mainstays of the franchise.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A similar pattern develops when you look at the Patriots.
Ever since Bill Belichick took over in 2000, here's how it has gone.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
First-round picks who played at least six years with New
England are Richard Seymour (2001, eight years, 12 total), Ty Warren (2003,
eight, 10), Vince Wilfork (2004, 11, released this offseason and signed with
Texans), <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Logan Mankins (2005, nine, 10
and still with Tampa Bay), and Jerod Mayo (2008, seven, still active). Add
picks from other rounds, and, of course, you start with Tom Brady, a
sixth-round pick in 2000.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Other players taken in later rounds, who played at least six
years with New England, are Patrick Pass (2000, 7th round, seven years), Matt
Light (2001, 2nd, 11), Jarvis Green (2002, 4th, eight), Dan Koppen (2003, 5th,
nine, 11 total NFL seasons), Asante Samuel (2003, 4th, six, 11), Ben Watson
(2004, 1st, six 11, still active), Stephen Gostkowski (2006, 4th, nine, still
active), Matt Slater (2008, 5th, seven, still active), Sebastian Vollmer (2009,
2nd, six, still active), and Julian Edelman (2009, 7th, six, still active).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Then there are two draft picks who bear a unique
distinction: They played at least six years for New England, but had two
separate stints with the team. Deion Branch, a 2002 second-round pick, played
11 total seasons, his first four and his final three with the Patriots. Tully
Banta-Cain, a 2003 seventh-round pick, played four years with the Pats, then
left for San Francisco for two years, then came back to New England for two
more years.</div>
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<br /></div>
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And then we come to other draft picks who are still with the
team. Patrick Chung, a 2009 second rounder, played four years for the Pats,
then signed with the Eagles, but came back to New England after Philly released
him, and the Pats have extended him. The Pats have retained two 2010 picks,
first rounder Devin McCourty and second rounder Rob Gronkowski.</div>
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<br /></div>
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So out of 101 draft selections from 2000 to 2010, that makes
21 long-time contributors or players still with the team, representing 21% of
its selections. That's a better percentage, but it's still not a massive amount
of retention.</div>
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<br /></div>
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What about draft picks who moved on and had long careers? In
order of years in the NFL: Daniel Graham (2002, 1st round, five years with
team, 11 total), Matt Cassel (2005, 7th, four, 10, still active), Eugene Wilson
(2003, 2nd, five, eight), and Brandon Meriweather (2007, 1st, four, eight, still
active). Wow, what a short list that was!</div>
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<br /></div>
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Now, if you add other recent Patriots draft picks, who
stayed for at least three years and are still active, you have three: Rich
Ohrnberger (2009, 4th, three, six), Brandon Spikes (2010, 2nd, four, five), and
Brandon Deaderick (2010, 7th, three, five). If you want, you can add two
players who were with the Pats just two years, but have managed six seasons in
the NFL and seemed to have found their niche. Both were 2009 picks: second
rounder Darius Butler and third rounder Brandon Tate.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, there are two Patriots draft picks who never took a
snap for the team, but have stuck around in the NFL for many seasons. Jeremy
Mincey, a 2006 sixth-round pick, has played six seasons and is still active. So
is Ted Larsen, a 2010 sixth-round pick with five NFL seasons. All of this
accounts for 11 players, representing 11 percent of New England's draft picks.
Again, it seems like the Patriots make the right call when to keep a draft pick
around, and when to let him depart. Graham is the only one you might make a
case for retaining, and you might make a case for Meriweather if you can tolerate his
propensity for dirty hits.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Then we come to the Packers, for whom Ted Thompson has been
general manager since 2005. He enters his 11th season, but he's following a
similar pattern. Let's start with those first-round picks with at least six years
of service to the Packers: Aaron Rodgers in 2005 (10 years, still with the team),
A.J. Hawk (2006, nine, released and signed with Cincy), B.J. Raji (2009, six, currently
a free agent), and Clay Matthews (2009, six, still with team).</div>
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<br /></div>
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Then come the draft picks with at least six years with Green
Bay who were not first rounders: Nick Collins (2005, 2nd round, seven years),
Brady Poppinga (2005, 4th, six, eight total in NFL), Mike Montgomery (2005,
7th, six), Greg Jennings (2006, 2nd, seven, nine, recently cut by Vikings),
James Jones (2007, 3rd, seven, eight, currently with Raiders), Desmond Bishop
(2009, 6th, six, eight), Mason Crosby (2007, 6th, eight), Jordy Nelson, (2008,
2nd, seven, still with team), Josh Sitton (2008, 4th, seven, still with team), T.J.
Lang (2009, 4th, six, still with team), and Brad Jones (2009, 7th, six, still
with team).</div>
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<br /></div>
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Then you can add four players from the 2010 draft class who
are still with the team: first rounder Bryan Bulaga (who just re-signed this
offseason), third rounder Morgan Burnett, fourth rounder Andrew Quarless, and
sixth rounder James Starks. Throw in one draft pick with two separate stints
with the Packers -- 2008 seventh-round pick Matt Flynn, with two stints
totaling six of his eight seasons -- and that accounts for 21 of the 57 picks
from 2005 to 2010, which is 37 percent. On one hand, it's a better percentage,
but on the other hand, it's not as long as Newsome and Belichick have been at
it. And it is true that the Packers have re-signed more of their draft picks
from 2009 and 2010 (four each), but only time will tell if this trend
continues.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As for draft picks who didn't stay at least six years and
had long NFL careers, you have a pair of 2006 draft picks: second rounder Daryn
Colledge (five years with team, nine years total, still active) and fourth
rounder Will Blackmon (four with team, eight total). That's a whopping two
draft picks not retained who had long NFL careers, and it's hard to argue
either one should have been retained.</div>
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<br /></div>
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There are two draft picks who were with Green Bay at least
three years who are still in the NFL: 2009 sixth-round picks Jairus Wynn (three
with GB, six total) and 2010 seventh-round pick C.J. Wilson (four with GB, five
total). And one draft pick never took a snap for Green Bay and is still active:
2007 seventh-round pick Clark Harris, who has played eight years in the NFL. So
that makes five draft picks who didn't stay with Green Bay for many years after
being drafted, and are either still active or had at least eight years in the
league. Again, Green Bay has made good decisions about which draft picks to
keep beyond the rookie deals.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the final part, I will examine how these teams have thus
far approached their 2011 draft picks, what may be expected for their 2012 draft
picks, and how this applies to the model Denver is pursuing at this point.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-9755754328183235072015-03-25T14:34:00.000-07:002015-03-25T14:34:30.431-07:00Exercise in Draft Pick Retention, Part One: The Baltimore Ravens<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
One can look back on the Denver Broncos' 2011 draft class
and know that John Elway did a very good job of drafting. Then along came this
year's free agency frenzy and most of the Broncos' draft picks departed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before Broncos fans get tuned up about how ridiculous it is
to let all these valuable players depart, the fact is, a team that drafts well
doesn't always keep every pick for the long term. These teams prioritize which
picks to retain, and understand that certain draft picks will not stay past
their rookie deals.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Every team takes a chance when a draft pick plays well, then
departs for another team. The question is whether or not those teams got the
most out of those players they drafted, and when it came time for a new
contract, when they make the correct decision to extend the player or let him
depart.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Baltimore Ravens are frequently cited as a team that
drafts well, makes good use of compensatory picks, and knows which free agents
to prioritize retaining. The New England Patriots are another team that gets
such a nod, and more recently, the Green Bay Packers are getting recognized as
such. Let's examine each of these teams to see what they have done.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The purpose of this exercise is to consider the following:</div>
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<br /></div>
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* Which draft picks stayed with the franchise for at least
six years, keeping in mind that contracts for first-round picks went as long as
six years before the rookie pay scale came along.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Which draft picks stayed with the team three to five
years, and finished their career with at least eight seasons in the NFL.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Among more recent draft years (2010 and 2011), which draft
picks are still with the team.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Any more recent draft picks (2008 to 2010) who were with
the team at least three years, and are still playing in the NFL.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Any unusual examples of draft picks who never took a snap
for the team that drafted them, but went on to play for other teams and are
still in the NFL.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Our focus in this part will remain on draft years up to 2010. In the
first part, we'll take a look at the Baltimore Ravens.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What's fascinating about the Ravens is the franchise has had
a pretty long history of retaining its first-round picks and getting a lot of
years out of them. It starts in 1996, when the Ravens had two first-round picks
-- they used the first on Jonathan Ogden, who has been inducted into the Hall
of Fame, and the second on Ray Lewis, who will be a Hall of Famer. Ogden played
13 years and Lewis 16, so the Ravens certainly made excellent use of those
picks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It continues in 1997, when the Ravens got eight years out of
first-round pick Peter Boulware, and again in 1999, as they got 11 years out of
first-round pick Chris McAllister. They also got a lot out of Todd Heap (2001,
10 years)and Ed Reed (2002, 11 years).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And when you get to 2003, you find several first-rounders
who are still with the team: Terrell Suggs (2003, 12 years), Marshal Yanda
(2007, eight years), and Joe Flacco (2008, seven years). They also kept 2006
first-rounder Haloti Ngata for nine years, before trading him to the Detroit
Lions this offseason. Throw in Jamal Lewis, a 2000 first-round pick, who played
six years for the Ravens before departing, and there's plenty to like about
their early picks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So what about players taken in the second round and later
who stayed with the team for many years. That list includes Cornell Brown
(1997, 6th round, seven years), Edwin Mulitalo (1999, 4th, eight years), Adalius
Thomas (2000, 6th, seven years), Jarret Johnson (2003,4th, nine years), Sam
Koch (2006, 6th, nine years), Ray Rice (2008, 2nd, six years), and Lardarius
Webb (2009, 3rd, six years).</div>
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Add in a pair of 2010 draft picks who were re-signed (second
rounder Terrence Cody and fourth rounder Dennis Pitta) and that's 21 players
the Ravens have drafted who were either past long-time contributors to the
team, or are still contributing. Now, when I tell you that the Ravens have had
118 total draft selections from 1996 to 2011, you probably think that if the
Ravens are so good at drafting, that they let a lot of talent get away. After all,
just 18% of those selections contributed to the team for a long time, or are
still contributing.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Except when you look at the picks they did not retain for at
least six years, and went on to lengthy careers or are still active, the list
isn't at long as you might think. Those players, listed in order of their total
years in the NFL, are: Dave Zastudil (2001, 4th round, four years with the
Ravens, 12 total NFL seasons), Brandon Stokley (1999, 4th, four, 11), Aubrayo
Franklin (2003, 5th, four, 11), Dwan Edwards (2004, 1st, five, 10, still
active), Chester Taylor (2002, 6th, four, 10), Chris Chester (2006, 2nd, five,
nine, still active), Dawan Landry (2006, 5th, five, nine), Ovie Mughelli (2003,
4th, four, nine), Casey Rabach (2001, 3rd, three, nine), Tony Pashos (2003,
5th, three, nine), Travis Taylor (2000, 1st, five, eight), Kyle Boller (2003,
1st, five, eight), Ben Grubbs (2007, 1st, five, eight), Antwan Barnes (2007,
4th, three, eight), Jamie Sharper (1997, 2nd, four, eight), Duane Starks (1998,
1st, four, eight), Chris Redman (2000, 3rd, four, eight), and Jeff Mitchell
(1997, 5th, three, eight).</div>
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<br /></div>
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Those players account for 18 of the Ravens' draft picks. Now
throw in other players who were with the Ravens for at least three years and
are still active: Oneil Cousins (2008, 3rd, three, eight), Michael Oher (2009,
1st, five, six), Paul Kruger (2009, 3rd, four, six), Ed Dickson (2010, 4th,
four, five), and Arthur Jones (2010, 5th, four five) and you have 23. You can
also add one player who never took a snap for Baltimore, but has played nine
seasons and is still active: Derek Anderson (2005 sixth rounder). That makes
24, which represents 20 percent of the Ravens' picks.</div>
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<br /></div>
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But then ask yourself: Of the draft picks the Ravens did not
keep for an extended period, how many of them should have been? You could
probably make arguments for Stokley, Edwards, and Franklin, and I imagine some
people will argue for Grubbs, but there's nobody else who was imperative to
retain. Zastudil has had a long NFL career, but he was easily replaced at
punter when Koch came along. Is anyone seriously going to argue that the Ravens
would have been better off with Boller, Redman, or Anderson at quarterback? Do
you really think the Ravens couldn't afford to lose either Taylor?</div>
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<br /></div>
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In other words, Ozzie Newsome and company go into their
drafts hoping that the bulk of the picks will contribute to the team in the
short term, but expect that only a few will contribute for the long term, and
they especially want the higher picks to do so. At certain points, they have to
make decisions about who is really worth retaining. And ever since 1996, it has
mostly worked for them. They have their misses (most notably Boller, Travis
Taylor, and 2005 first-round pick Mark Clayton), but it's hard to argue they
haven't been successful overall.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In part two, we'll look at the Patriots and Packers.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-19099606883788763012015-03-16T09:49:00.000-07:002015-03-16T09:53:12.899-07:00Elway Isn't Being Cheap, He Just Wants Value<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
Denver Broncos fans knew going into the 2015 offseason that
the Broncos had a lot of key players who were set to hit free agency. Four of
the bigger names (Orlando Franklin, Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Rahim
Moore) have headed off elsewhere, while the Broncos' free agency moves have
mostly focused on lower-priced players, leading to silly questions <a href="http://www.denverbroncos.com/news-and-blogs/article-1/Masons-Mailbag-A-pause-at-the-end-of-a-frenzied-free-agent-week/7c3c6528-f64c-4145-8066-7fbff90f61dc" target="_blank">like the one that led off Andrew Mason's most recent mailbag</a>.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Broncos fans asking this question no doubt remember what
happened last season, when the Broncos seemed to be the landing spot for a lot
of the big names in free agency. DeMarcus Ware! Aqib Talib! T.J. Ward! Emmanuel
Sanders! Look at all the money the Broncos are spending!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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And, of course, this led to the narrative that John Elway
was going "all in" for a Super Bowl win. So, the narrative continues,
Elway better go "all in" this season now that Peyton Manning is
coming back for another season, because time is running out!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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But the truth is, Elway has approached free agency
cautiously, and does not just blindly throw money around. Last season might
seem like an exception, but not exactly. Let's take a stroll down Memory Lane
and see exactly how Elway approached free agency.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2011:</b> The first season Elway was making personnel decisions,
he faced the same situation everyone else did: The collective bargaining
agreement expired and teams had to wait until a new agreement was reached
before free agency could begin. Teams could re-sign their own players prior to
the end of the 2010 league year, and the draft took place as usual, but that was
it until August.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Elway did make a big move in retaining one of the Broncos'
own, as Champ Bailey re-signed for four years at $43 million, with $22 million
guaranteed... certainly not a sign of the Broncos being cheap. Once the new CBA took effect, some Broncos fans expected Elway to
start rushing into free agency to grab anybody he could. Instead, he gave a
low-cost deal to Willis McGahee (four years, $9.5M, $3M guaranteed), a
short-term deal to Ty Warren (two years, $10M, $2.5M guaranteed), and traded a
late-round pick for Broderick Bunkley. That doesn't sound like somebody making
a splash in free agency, does it?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It's fair to point out the Warren signing
didn't pan out, but even then, it was just $2.5 million the Broncos had no choice but to pay
him, and in Warren's second season, he had to take a pay cut to stay with the team.
McGahee, though, exceeded expectations, and
Bunkley played very well in his single season with the team. McGahee and
Bunkley were the first two instances of Elway finding value in a player.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2012:</b> Everyone knows about Elway courting Peyton Manning and
that Manning ultimately chose the Broncos. But while Manning was taking his
time making a decision, the only other free agency move Elway made was signing
Mike Adams to a two-year, $4M contract. And I can remember Broncos fans getting
impatient, wondering what would happen if Manning spurned the Broncos and left
Elway with nothing.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After Manning agreed to terms with Denver, and certainly got
compensated well (five years, $96M, $18M fully guaranteed after passing his
physical -- and he has collected more money since), that compensation included conditions pertaining to Manning's neck
and passing future physicals. And after that, the free agents who came to the
Broncos were noteworthy more because of a certain connection. Jacob Tamme (three
years, $9M, $3.5M guaranteed) was the teammate of Manning who followed him to
Denver. Tracy Porter (one year, $4M) was the guy who had a pick six of Manning
in a Super Bowl. And Joel Dreessen (three years, $8.5M) was a Colorado native
and Colorado State University graduate.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But Manning aside, every free agent Elway signed was, once
again, a value signing. And of those free agents, Porter was the only one who
didn't pan out, and his was just a one-year deal. Once again, Elway wasn't
going around committing top dollar to a bunch of players, even as he focused on
one big-ticket player.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2013:</b> This offseason was most noteworthy for the guy Elway
signed away from a conference rival: Wes Welker. Of course, given that Peyton
Manning vs. Tom Brady is the QB showdown everyone talks about, it wouldn't
matter which favorite target of either QB was signed away by the other team --
it would have drawn headlines, because Manning vs. Brady. Then again, the money
Welker got (two years, $12M), while not exactly cheap, was far less than what
some expected Welker to get.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Meanwhile, Elway signed offensive guard Louis Vasquez for
four years at $23M, with $10M guaranteed. Again, that's not a cheap contract,
but the average of $5.875M per year looks pretty good compared to the likes of
Jahri Evans ($8M APY), Logan Mankins ($8.5M APY), and Andy Levitre ($7.8M APY),
all players who were considered to be better than Vasquez at the time Vasquez
agreed to terms with the Broncos.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Elway also gave $5M to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but it
was a one-year deal, not the long-term commitment DRC was no doubt expecting.
And then comes Elway's steal of free agency, as he paid a mere $4M over two
years to Terrance Knighton.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As far as going out and spending a good chunk of change,
Elway did that with one player. Ryan Clady was given the franchise tag when the
2013 offseason began, then ultimately agreed to a five-year, $52.5M contract,
with $15M fully guaranteed, and an additional $16.5M in injury-only guaranteed,
plus a $1.5M roster bonus that happens to be due this season. Since it appears likely Clady will stay with the
Broncos through 2015, that means he'll collect $33 million in salary. Sarcasm
alert: THE BRONCOS ARE BEING SO CHEAP.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Back to seriousness: What Elway did was reward one of the
Broncos' better players, limited a long-term free agent deal to Vasquez, and
kept the others on short-term deals, one which proved to be excellent value
(Knighton), and the other three proving to be pretty good value for what they were paid. Elway's strategy should be pretty evident by now.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>2014:</b> Okay, so this is the year in which Elway was, on the surface, freely
spending money. DeMarcus Ware's three-year deal was for $30M, and he'll get
$20M of that for sure. Aqib Talib's six-year deal was for $57M, and he will get
$17.5M of that so far. T.J. Ward got $22.5M over four years, of which he will
receive $13.5M. And Emmanuel Sanders got $15M over three years, of which $6M
was guaranteed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, a closer look tells us a few things. First, Sanders
was a value signing, as the $6M guaranteed he got is the most the Broncos will
pay him in a single season. He'll collect $4.85M in base salary this year and
$5M next year -- a bargain for a veteran No. 2 receiver. Then there's Ward,
whose average salary per year isn't even in the top 10 among safeties. And I'm
sure every Bronco fan would rather have Ward than, for example, Jairus Byrd,
who averages $9M per year (and happened to be a free agent the same offseason
Ward was).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then we come to Ware, who the Broncos certainly committed a
lot of cash to, but they can cut Ware after the 2015 season and not owe him
another penny. It is fair, though, for people to say that the Broncos made a
massive commitment to Ware, in which they were effectively tied to him for two
years at $20 million.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
That isn't exactly the case with Talib, who the Broncos
could have cut after 2014 if things didn't work out, and not owe him another
penny. That's because Talib's 2015 salary was guaranteed for injury only, and
the Broncos would owe him nothing had he been cut for any other reason. He is
still on the payroll, so yes, the Broncos owe him another $6 million ($5.5M base, $500,000 roster bonus). Next
season, his $8.5M base salary is an injury-only guarantee, so the Broncos could
cut him for performance-related reasons and not owe him anything. If that were
to happen, Talib doesn't even collect one-third of the total money in his
contract.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Once again, the strategy Elway employed is clear: Look for
value in a player and protect yourself when it comes to a long-term commitment
-- and in the case of looking for value, Sanders and Ward certainly proved to
be value finds.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2015: Yes, it's tough to see Julius Thomas and Orlando
Franklin depart because other teams offered big-money deals. Yes, the Broncos
might have misjudged the market when Knighton and Rahim Moore took value deals
elsewhere. I can understand Broncos fans criticizing Elway for not retaining
Knighton and Moore when the teams who signed them didn't pay a lot of money to
do so.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But let's not forget Elway went out of his way to retain
Chris Harris, who got five years and $42.5M in an extension he signed back in
December, of which at least $10M was fully guaranteed. Along with Clady, the
Broncos ultimately extended Matt Prater after placing the franchise tag on him,
so there's a good chance they will do the same with Demaryius Thomas.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And then there's a guy by the name of Von Miller, who enters
the option year of his rookie contract at $9.75M. The Broncos could always opt
to let him play out that year, then place the franchise tag on him next season.
But if Miller puts together a strong 2015, it wouldn't be surprising to see
Elway become more aggressive in getting him signed to a long-term deal, much
like he did with Harris once he saw the cornerback had fully recovered from an
ACL injury.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As for the other signings, Elway seems more concerned with
getting value from the likes of Owen Daniels (three years, $12M, $3M
guaranteed), Vance Walker (two years, $4M -- hmm, sound familiar?), Shelley
Smith (two years, $5.65M) and Darian Stewart (terms not yet released, but
likely a low-cost signing). The same holds true for the re-signing of Virgil
Green (three years, $8.4M, $2.5M fully guaranteed).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The perception that the Broncos are being cheap, simply
based on what they did last season, is silly. Many of the Broncos' best free
agent signings have been in the value department (McGahee, Adams, Knighton,
Sanders, Ward, arguably Vasquez) while the biggest contracts either went to
retaining Broncos (Bailey, Clady, Harris) or to players considered elite at
their position (Manning, Ware, Talib), but contained provisions to ensure the
Broncos weren't tied down to the players for too long.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The strategy has worked thus far for Elway, as the Broncos
have never missed the playoffs since he took over team operations. Maybe
Broncos fans who accuse him of being cheap, need to admit that, regarding free agency, he may actually know
what he is doing.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-31512583065513299842015-03-12T09:47:00.002-07:002015-03-12T09:48:27.413-07:00Initial Reaction to the First Few Days of NFL FA<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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You certainly can't say it hasn't been an interesting week
for NFL free agency. From the monster deals that were being handed out to
certain players, to three trades that happened in about a 30-second span, there
was plenty for NFL fans to discuss.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Trying to make sense of it all can be difficult, but here's
a few of my thoughts regarding what transpired the first few days.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Don't blame players for trying to maximize their returns:</b> Nobody
should fault a player for wanting to get the most money possible out of a
contract. The sudden retirements of Patrick Willis, Jake Locker, and Jason
Worilds -- each with different reasons for calling it a career -- indicates that
there is no telling when an NFL player's career comes to an end. And while
people may argue that those are making millions of dollars are in a different
position, the fact remains that few people would agree to take less money to
stay with their current jobs unless they had good reason to believe that the
extra money they could get elsewhere would be countered by a truly bad
situation.</div>
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<br /></div>
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This is why I don't fault Julius Thomas for taking more
money to play for the Jaguars. The Jaguars may not be a winning franchise right
now, but they have a lot of young players and are just getting out of the mess
left behind by the previous regime. Nor do I fault Darrelle Revis for
maximizing his value as a player -- he's got his Super Bowl ring, and he knew
that plenty of teams had lots of cap space to work with, so he used the latter
factor to force the Patriots' hand regarding the option year the club
ultimately declined, and then to get himself the best possible contract. And
the deals for JT and Revis bring me to this.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Teams covet receivers and cornerbacks:</b> The NFL Captain
Obvious statement of the past few years is that this is a passing league, so
receivers and cornerbacks are in demand -- the former to give quarterbacks reliable targets, and the latter to take away the shorter routes most passing teams utiliize frequently. This is particularly true this season,
as the cap space multiple teams had available, plus the number of quality
players available at the position, led to a players' market for both positions.
It arguably started when Randall Cobb was given $10M per year to stay with the
Packers, and it continued when Jeremy Maclin was given $11M per year to play
with the Chiefs, who had no receivers with a touchdown last season. Regarding
cornerbacks, there's Revis, Byron Maxwell and Kareem Jackson all cashing in on
significant deals.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The lofty contracts for wide receivers will make it tougher
for the Broncos and Cowboys to extend their franchised receivers, Demaryius
Thomas and Dez Bryant, because they can now start insisting on Calvin
Johnson-type money. The same could apply to the Bengals, who have A.J. Green
entering his rookie contract option year at $10M, but could easily ask for $16M
per year as well. As for the cornerbacks, Jimmy Smith (entering his $6M rookie
option year) now has leverage with any extension the Ravens want to give him. Prince
Amakamura could have the same situation with the Giants.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>The Saints are really leveraging their future:</b> It's not
surprising that the Saints traded Jimmy Graham, as they needed to alleviate
their cap situation in 2015. The problem was that the player they added, center
Max Unger, may have filled a need on the team, but they were left with a lot of
dead money from Graham's deal, and the space freed up was less than what they
will commit to Unger in 2015. Furthermore, they had to restructure multiple
deals just to get underneath the cap, and release veterans such as Pierre
Thomas and Curtis Lofton -- and at this point, they are still just $1.5M under
the cap, leaving them with no space to sign players they draft.</div>
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<br /></div>
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And yet the Saints are still chasing after free agents, with
their pursuit of Brandon Browner and reported interest in C.J. Spiller. The
Saints are clearly still operating in "win now" mentality, despite
posting losing records two of the past three seasons. It may be true that the
NFC South was a weak division in 2014, but that doesn't mean it will remain so.
There's nothing to indicate Carolina will regress, as many of the players who
emerged down the stretch are younger players, and Atlanta is in position to
bounce back if the defense can play better. Meanwhile, New Orleans will have to
either cut or restructure more deals just to get space to sign its draft picks,
all while structuring any deal for Browner or Spiller to push cap space down
the road. And next year, Drew Brees enters the final year of his contract and
counts for $27.4M against the cap. That could really force the Saints into
tough decisions.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>The Eagles are hard to figure out:</b> I still maintain that the
LeSean McCoy for Kiko Alonso swap was a good thing for Philadelphia. But now
the Eagles have made a series of moves that really strike me as a perplexing way of doing busienss.</div>
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<br /></div>
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First, there's the quarterback situation. They re-signed
Mark Sanchez to a two-year deal, which pretty much indicated he would be the
starter in 2015, but with no guarantee that he would even be with the team next
season. Signing him certainly could have opened the door for the Eagles to
trade Nick Foles and then draft a quarterback they liked in this year's draft.
Next thing you know, Foles is traded -- but for Sam Bradford, along with a swap
of draft picks in which the Eagles gave up more than the Rams did. Never mind
that Foles has more upside than Bradford at this point.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Follow that up with the Eagles flirting with Frank Gore,
only for him to spurn the Eagles and sign with the Colts instead. Then the
Eagles agree to terms with Ryan Mathews, but the same day they bring him in to
finalize the deal, they instead agree to terms with DeMarco Murray. As of this
writing, who knows if the Eagles will seriously commit to both Murray and
Mathews, but it strikes me as strange how the Eagles are conducting business.
Who really knows what to think about the way Chip Kelly is running things at
this point.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Suh's contract structure is mind boggling:</b> The Miami
Dolphins didn't have much cap space to work with, so they had to be creative in
how they worked out the contract they gave to Ndamukong Suh. This season, his
cap number is a very reasonable $6.1M. But then look at 2016, at which point
that cap number rises to $28.6M.</div>
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<br /></div>
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That's far higher than the 2015 cap number of $21.9M for JJ Watt, who enters the second year of his current
contract with the Texans. More importantly, the Texans' cap situation wasn't tight
entering 2015, so they didn't have to ask Watt to restructure. The Dolphins, on
the other hand, will certainly pick up the option year on Ryan Tannehill's
rookie deal or extend him, and either way, they'll be committing plenty of cap
space to accommodate one or the other. Thus, Miami will again find itself
needing wiggle room under the cap, and will no doubt ask Suh to restructure,
thus forcing them to keep him around longer, even if he doesn't live up to expectations.</div>
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<br /></div>
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One can certainly debate whether or not Suh should have received a contract that made him the highest-paid defensive player in the game. But what the Dolphins are pretty much saying is they expect Suh to transform their
defense the way Watt has transformed the Texans' defense. Suh is a talented
player, and I don't expect him to just mail it in the way Albert Haynesworth
did. But living up to that deal will be a tall task.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-78002713249462585102015-03-05T08:23:00.001-08:002015-03-05T08:31:47.973-08:00Thoughts on Cassel, Manning and The Saints<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Going over a few items from the past couple of days
pertaining to the NFL offseason:</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* The Buffalo Bills traded for Matt Cassel, giving them
their likely starting quarterback for the 2015 season. The trade does make
sense from the Bills' perspective -- they did send a fifth-round pick to
Minnesota, but got a sixth-round pick back, so they'll still have six total
picks, and the seventh-round pick in 2016 may be inconsequential, as they
should get a compensatory pick that season, given that they will lose a couple
of key free agents (notably Jerry Hughes).</div>
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<br /></div>
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Additionally, by trading for Cassel, not only do they avoid
competing with other QB-needy teams for Cassel's services (it's likely the Vikings would have released Cassel if he hadn't been traded), they don't have to
worry about giving him a signing bonus and thus, if Cassel doesn't pan out,
they'll just let him depart without any dead money against the cap.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The only issue with Cassel is whether or not he will be the
right fit for the offense the Bills want to run. I know some fans will point to
Cassel putting up big numbers in the past, but he has just two seasons doing
that. The first, of course, came with New England, and we all know Cassel's
production had more to do with the Patriots having a consistent system in
place, and coordinator changes only meant a few tweaks. The second came<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with Kansas City in 2010, a season in which
Jamaal Charles averaged 6.4 yards per carry. That might indicate Cassel can be
productive with a quality running back, except for one problem: Charles averaged
5.3 yards per carry in 2012, but Cassel threw for just 1,796 yards with six
touchdowns and 12 picks.</div>
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<br /></div>
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It's understandable why the Bills made the move -- and it's
certainly a better move than giving $6.25 million in full guarantees to Josh
McCown. But it remains to be seen if Cassel can be the QB who gets the Bills to
the playoffs.</div>
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<br /></div>
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* The pay cut Peyton Manning took has nothing to do with
ensuring the Denver Broncos don't lose key free agents. It has more to do with
the fact that Manning is coming off a quad injury that affected his play down
the stretch, and the question as to whether or not he can recover enough to get
the Broncos back to the Super Bowl.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Converting $4 million into incentives based on whether the
Broncos when the AFC title and the Super Bowl allows the Broncos to push the
cap hit into 2016, at which point they can gain considerable space should
Manning retire.</div>
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<br /></div>
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As far as retaining free agents, that has far less to do
with the total amount of money the players and their agents are seeking, and
more likely to do with how much in fully guaranteed money they will get. Let's
sum up a few terms regarding money a player gets when he signs a contract.</div>
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<br /></div>
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- Fully guaranteed: The player gets the money no matter what
happens to him in the future. Signing bonuses are always fully guaranteed.</div>
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- Injury-only guaranteed: The player will get the money if
he is cut for an injury- or health-related reason, but not for
performance-related reasons.</div>
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- Not guaranteed: If the player is cut, he doesn't get the
money, regardless of why he is cut.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Since John Elway took over team operations, the only players
the Broncos have given fully guaranteed money for more than one season are
DeMarcus Ware and Peyton Manning -- and in Manning's case, there were
conditions that had to be met before the full guarantees kicked in after the
first year of the contract. Ryan Clady, considered one of the best left tackles
in the NFL, received just one year of full guarantees.</div>
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<br /></div>
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With that said, Clady's deal was effectively a two-year deal
because of how the contract was structured. But when agents want to attract
players or talk about the deals they got clients, they aren't interested in
contract structure, but the guaranteed money, and particularly the full
guarantees.</div>
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<br /></div>
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This likely is the issue with Julius Thomas, whose agent can
point to players such as Dennis Pitta and Jared Cook getting fully guaranteed
money (even if it's not a large sum) beyond the first year of their deals. The
Broncos are not likely to budge from their philosophy, as they can point to
Clady's contract and say Julius Thomas is no different. They don't have to talk
about JT's injury history. All they have to do is ask, if Clady took just one
year of full guarantees, why shouldn't Julius do the same?</div>
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<br /></div>
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* The news that the New Orleans Saints are shopping around
Curtis Lofton should not be surprising. When the NFL announced the cap for the
2015 season, the Saints were $22 million over the cap.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
They did restructure Jarius Byrd's contract, but that isn't
enough by itself. Neither is trading Lofton, nor is the recent release of
Pierre Thomas. Several more players are likely to be cut, and others will have
to restructure their deals, just to give New Orleans enough space to pay their
draft picks and rookie free agents.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Saints no doubt have the mindset they can still contend
for the playoffs, but given how bad their cap situation is, they need to be
more realistic. The team is about to enter a rebuilding phase and simply can't
keep committing money to top players. Their lineup will certainly look
different this season, likely with a lot of young players in the fold. It would
be a shock to see the Saints land any top free agent this offseason -- and if
they do pull off such a shocker, all they are going to do is make their cap
situation worse in future seasons.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For those that want to get an idea about the Saints' cap
situation, <a href="http://overthecap.com/calculator/new-orleans-saints" target="_blank">you can go to Over the Cap's cap calculator page</a>. Even if you don't
understand all there is to know about contract structuring, you'll quickly find
out just how difficult it is for the Saints to get out of their situation and
still keep together a roster that allows it to make a playoff push.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And while it might be easy to say that the Saints play in a
weak division, who is to say that Carolina won't make another strong push or
that the Falcons won't improve? The road to the NFC South title might not be as
easy as people may think.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-23005806136166740572015-03-04T09:28:00.001-08:002015-03-04T09:36:08.368-08:00Looking Closely at the McCoy-Alonso Trade<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
NFL fans are abuzz about the first major move of the 2015
offseason, in which the Buffalo Bills acquired running back LeSean McCoy from
the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for linebacker Kiko Alonso.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fans are familiar with McCoy, considered one of the best
running backs in the NFL.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Alonso was a second-round pick in 2013 and had a great
rookie season, but missed his second season because of a torn ACL. Alonso also
happens to be a University of Oregon graduate, so he has immediate connections
with Chip Kelly.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It's easy to "read and react" to a trade such as
this. Any fantasy football player knows how coveted primary backs are, so
naturally they will think the Bills came out ahead and the Eagles made a bad
move. Meanwhile, there will be those who will point to how the Bills just
traded a young, talented defensive player who won't even paid $1 million next
season, and how foolish the Bills look for giving away such a talent.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
"Read and react" doesn't really get to the heart
of why each team made the move it made. Each team has a potential reward coming
out of the trade, but does take some risk. Let's look at each team's situation
and the rewards and risks that can result from the trade.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Bills team situation:</b> The Bills finished 9-7 last year,
thanks to one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, they enter the
offseason with some major holes to fill on the offensive side of the ball. They
need a quarterback, a tight end, and upgrades on the offensive line. They also
needed a running back, because C.J. Spiller is a free agent and likely won't be
back, and Fred Jackson has played well but turns 32. On the defensive side of
the ball, the Bills have a glut of linebackers, as they got quality play out of
rookie Preston Brown and third-year player Nigel Bradham.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Bills reward:</b> The trade makes sense from the Bills'
perspective, because they are trading away a player at a position at which they
have depth, to acquire a player at a position of need. It is true that Alonso
was terrific as a rookie, and that Bills fans loved him, but given that they
have two quality linebackers already, it makes sense to put Alonso on the
trading block. And given that the pickings among free agent QBs and rookie QBs
are slim, it makes sense for the Bills to take a chance on a running back who
has the reputation as a game changer. Since all the Bills are giving up in the
trade is a player at a position in which they already have capable starters, they aren't taking that much risk.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Additionally, McCoy has shown that he can be a productive
player. If he can bounce back after a disappointing 2014 season, he could give
the Bills a new dimension to the offense and take pressure off whoever will be the
quarterback. That might allow the Bills to make another playoff run, and then
the team might be in better position next year to find a quarterback who can
put them over the top.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Bills risk:</b> Obviously, some people will point to past trades
for running backs, in which one team gave up something significant to get the
back, and the team who dealt the back came out ahead. The most recent example,
of course, is Trent Richardson, who proved to be worth nowhere near the
first-round pick that the Colts gave up to acquire him from the Browns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One that happened 11 years ago was the trade
in which the Broncos sent Clinton Portis to Washington for cornerback Champ
Bailey and a second-round pick. I had several people who told me at the time
that you just couldn't find backs like Portis, but although Portis had a fine
career, he never put Washington over the top. Meanwhile, Bailey had more
seasons of productivity for the Broncos and ensured himself a spot in the Hall
of Fame. None of this means that the Bills are destined for a similar outcome,
but it certainly is something to keep in mind.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The real risk for the Bills comes in the form of the salary
cap hit. The pro-rated signing bonus from McCoy's contract he originally signed
with Philly will only apply to Philly's cap, but he is still due a $9.75
million base salary (of which $1 million is guaranteed) and $500,000 in
bonuses. That accounts for a $10.25 million cap hit for Buffalo, which means the
Bills will only have about $20 million in cap space left. The cap hit for McCoy
is second highest among running backs, and backs who are just as productive,
such as Marshawn Lynch ($8.5 million cap hit) and Jamaal Charles ($7.9 million cap
hit), have more manageable contracts. The Bills will likely work out an extension
for McCoy to free up cap space, but must be careful in structuring the contract
so they can get out of it if McCoy doesn't produce as expected.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And while the Bills weren't necessarily going to be big
spenders in free agency, the fact the Bills see themselves as just a couple of
players away from making that final push to the playoffs, means they need to
acquire some free agents. Even with McCoy, they were need of a quarterback, and now they just acquired Matt Cassel, who carries risk at this point. (Note: Blog post has been updated to recognize the trade announced the morning of March 4.) They
will need to upgrade their offensive line, and while there are quality guards
available in free agency, they won't come cheap. Finally, they will need to
find a defensive end who can replace Jerry Hughes, who appears likely to
sign with another team. It is understandable that the Bills do not want to
overpay for Hughes, but his departure means the Bills must either sign or draft
a replacement.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Bills will have to be especially careful with their
draft selections, considering they have just six at this point, with none in
the first round or fourth round -- and that's not counting whatever pick they may have sent to the Vikings in the Cassel trade. They will likely gain a compensatory
selection, but those picks cannot be traded. The Bills will be in a tough
situation, because their first selection comes midway through the second round
and they won't have many draft picks to make a move up the board.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Eagles team situation:</b> Philadelphia finished 10-6, despite
multiple injuries to offensive linemen and a defense that ranked in the bottom
third among all NFL teams in points and yards allowed. The Eagles definitely
see themselves as a playoff contender, despite questions marks at the
quarterback position. Along with deciding whether or not Nick Foles is truly
the answer at QB, they need defensive backs and linebackers, and will likely be
seeking depth on the defensive line.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Eagles reward:</b> Everyone who wants to admonish the Eagles for
trading such a great running back needs to look at what the Eagles got in
return: A player at a position of need. Acquiring a young talent such as
Alonso, who will get a salary of less than $1 million, is an excellent move for
Philly. It is true that Alonso is coming off an ACL injury, but given the
salary and the fact that he enters his third season, the risk is extremely low,
while the reward is very high, especially given how well Alonso played as a
rookie. If Alonso doesn't prove to be a quality starter, he could still be a
good backup, and a salary and cap hit of less than $1 million (keep in mind the
Bills will eat the cap hit for the signing bonus) is still good value for a
backup player.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
By trading McCoy, the Eagles free up $7.5 million in cap
space, which will give them nearly $40 million in cap space going into the
offseason. The Eagles are now right up there with the Colts as a playoff
contender who has the cap space available to make big moves in free agency. The
Eagles now have to be considered a major player for Devin McCourty, who would
provide an upgrade at safety. If they don't land McCourty, they could focus on
a cornerback, a position at which there are plenty of good options available.
Kareem Jackson is a possibility for the Eagles, and so is Brandon Flowers. The
Eagles might even consider available linebackers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But what about the hole left with McCoy's absence? First of
all, the running back class in the 2015 draft is deep. The Eagles could easily
find their replacement for McCoy in the second round of the draft, and teams in recent seasons have found great value in second-round backs. The Eagles did just that when they drafted McCoy. More recent examples are LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy and Giovanni Bernard.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another
possibility is to give a free agent back a one-year deal with no guaranteed
money. The only free agent RB likely to get a top-dollar contract is DeMarco Murray,
while most everyone else will likely have to settle for less money. Most teams
just aren't committing top dollars to running backs any longer, so the Eagles
can afford to be patient and find the right back in free agency or the draft. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is the question concerning Nick Foles, but he will
have just a $1.67 million cap hit. It does make sense for the Eagles to give
him one more year to see if he can be the long-term answer at quarterback.
There is no urgency for the Eagles to sign him to an extension at this point.
They can afford to let Foles start, require that he prove himself, and if he does,
then they can talk about an extension. If he's not up to the task, the Eagles
haven't lost that much in return, because it cost them a cap hit of less than
$2 million, which is about what you would expect to commit toward a backup QB,
and that hit comes off the books in 2016.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Eagles risk:</b> The risk the Eagles are taking has less to do
with McCoy than it has to do with how they handle free agency and the draft.
Eagles fans no doubt remember the "Dream Team" that was built in free
agency a couple of season ago and how it backfired, so there will certainly be skepticism if the
Eagles go "all in" on too many free agents. Even if the Eagles are
prudent with those free agents, the question remains whether or not those free
agents will be the right fits. Additionally, if they choose to retain any of
their pending FAs, they will need to be careful with those deals.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The same also applies to the draft. The Eagles will have
eight picks, two in the fourth round, and will need to not only find the right
running back to replace McCoy, but find players who can help the defense and with depth.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is worth noting, though, that the real risks to the
Eagles are the ones they take in finding the players they need. They are in a
better position than the Bills to address those needs, but they will still need
to play it smart. Given that Chip Kelly appears to have more input in personnel
now, he will need to demonstrate he can make the right moves and keep the
Eagles a playoff contender in the coming seasons. </div>
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<br /></div>
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In short, it's understandable why the Bills made this trade,
but the Bills take on a little more risk than the Eagles do. The Eagles are not without
any risk, but it's not as much as people think, and has more to do with other
personnel decisions they make to improve their team, rather than the perceived gaping hole from trading away a player whose popularity has as much to do with fantasy football as it does with his play in general.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-40591630328173031792015-01-23T12:40:00.001-08:002015-01-23T12:40:33.494-08:00"Deflategate" Simply Stems from Football Fan Mentality<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Just when you thought things might settle down in the NFL,
here we go again with another controversy -- a controversy that evidently
strikes at the very core of American values, if you believe some of the things
you've been reading about.</div>
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<br /></div>
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It goes like this: Footballs that the New England Patriots
used in the AFC championship game were inflated below regulation and, once
again, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have conspired to pull the wool over
everyone's eyes, thus their dynasty is a fraud and a sham.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Let's get a few things out of the way. First of all, yes,
the footballs used did not comply with NFL requirements, and were very likely
altered after they had been inspected by NFL officials. Second, Brady was among
the quarterbacks who lobbied the NFL to change the rules regarding how
footballs are prepared for games. (The summed-up version: It used to be the
home team supplied the footballs, but it changed to each team supplying their
own.) Third, it's not the first time the Patriots have been accused of, and
found responsible for, violating NFL rules. And fourth, yes, I absolutely believe Brady knew what was happening, and it's likely Belichick knew what was going on as well.</div>
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<br /></div>
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With all this said, why are so many people acting like it's
the end of the world as we know it, that the Patriots cheated and our way of
American life happens to be at stake?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Oh, sure, if you want to make jokes about "deflated
balls" and laugh at how you have another reason to hate Tom Brady, I can
get that. One of the traits every sports fan shares is the pleasure of making
jokes about athletes, teams and events, particularly if we don't like those who
are involved.</div>
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But reading some of the articles written about this
situation, makes it sound like a staple of Americana hangs in the balance, and
with it, America itself.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Here's a newsflash for everyone: Integrity often means
little in professional sports. Owners expect cities that host franchises to pay
for new stadiums every time they ask, or they'll pack their bags and leave
town. Coaches look for new methods and approaches to the game, often figuring
out what rules they can bend, circumvent, or creatively interpret to their advantage.
Players follow suit on the field -- all you have to do is watch a wide receiver
and a defensive back jostling with each other on a pass play, with each one
expecting the official favor him over the other guy, no matter what. Oh, and
they also like to seek out any performance enhancer, legal or illegal, that
they think can help them gain a competitive advantage.</div>
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<br /></div>
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And what's a big reason why coaches and players keep looking for advantages?
Answer: Because we, the fans, have made demands upon them that force them down
that path.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The typical football fan expects his or her favorite team to
WIN NOW, because they see guys like Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians turning
things around in just one season, even if they are the exception. The typical football fan expects each player
drafted in the seven rounds to make an instant impact, or they will be
immediately written off as a bust, because just look at all these guys who were
drafted in different rounds and were immediate sensations (did someone mention
Brady?). The typical football fan especially expects a quarterback to be a
winner right away, touting Andrew Luck as the example of how easy it is for a
QB to achieve instant success, while forgetting that most quarterbacks are like
Johnny Manziel, in that they stink up the joint in their first NFL starts.</div>
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<br /></div>
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And yes, it doesn't help that Manziel got hyped to death,
but that's yet another problem with the typical football fan. The typical
football fan sees Manziel excite everyone in college, expects that to immediately
happen in the NFL, gets impatient when he doesn't start right away, and when he
finally starts and looks terrible, they immediately declare it's all over for
the guy.</div>
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<br /></div>
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On top of that, when the media starts feeding narratives to
typical fans, these fans are more likely to eat them up rather than reject them.
So you have Brady, watching how everyone calls Peyton Manning a playoff choker,
how Tony Romo can't win when it counts, and how Seattle has the BEST DEFENSE
EVAH, and then you act surprised that Brady might choose to employ questionable
methods so he can avoid the likely narrative known as "Is it all over for
Tom Brady?"</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The fact is, football is a complex sport in which the
outcome of games can't be boiled down to one or two factors, as much as people
try to make it out to be that way. More importantly, football is not something
that is supposed to represent American values, as much as some might want it to
be that way.</div>
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<br /></div>
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If football were to disappear from the face of the earth,
America would not perish. There are far more areas one can look to, to
understand what American values are truly all about, rather than a sport in
which the general mindset is to "win now or else," and where said
mindset often leads to unscrupulous undertakings by owners, coaches and
players, all trying to see what they might get away with, in the quest of
winning.</div>
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<br /></div>
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(Actually, it's not too different from how most Americans
are. We're constantly told we have to be "number one" in everything,
and if we are anything short of that, then we must DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. And
then we act surprised when somebody tries to circumvent rules in place to ensure
they get the "number one" result that Americans demand. Maybe it's
time we start being fine with "always do your best, no matter the
outcome" rather than getting up in arms about how America has been ruined
because we aren't "number one" for whatever the reason may be.)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
By all means, hold those who violate the rules
accountable. But stop acting like the way of life of Americans is threatened by
Belichick, Brady, and footballs that aren't regulation -- and most of all, stop
acting so surprised that coaches and players would bend the rules as far as
they can in the pursuit of winning.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After all, when you insist that one "win now or
else," the next logical step for one to take is "win at all costs,
rules be damned."</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-20534324621253584282015-01-16T13:07:00.001-08:002015-01-16T13:25:13.197-08:00Is Gary Kubiak Really An Upgrade Over John Fox?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Earlier in the week, Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator
Gary Kubiak turned down interview requests with the Chicago Bears and New York
Jets.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then along came the Denver Broncos, who parted ways with
John Fox, and suddenly Kubiak is interested.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Translation: Kubiak is about to become the next head coach
of the Denver Broncos.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Broncos fans will no doubt have fond memories of Kubiak, as
the backup quarterback who could fill in for short periods, developed a close
bond with John Elway, ran the offense under Mike Shanahan during the two Super
Bowl wins, then continued to run it effectively when the likes of Brian Griese,
Gus Frerotte and Jake Plummer were at QB.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We all know that Kubiak can do a masterful job of running an
offense. But does that make him the right guy to be the head coach?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Let's take a look at what happened when Kubiak coached the
Texans, and how it compares to when Fox was the coach of the Panthers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Regarding quarterbacks, we know the story with Fox. For most
of his seasons, his quarterback was the average-to-good Jake Delhomme. Other
QBs who had to take the helm for Carolina were Rodney Peete, Vinny Testaverde,
Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen. Meanwhile, Kubiak spent most of his season with
Matt Schaub, but others who played for him were David Carr, T.J. Yates and Case
Keenum.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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There is, of course, the argument that since Fox's expertise
is defense, he didn't really have much to do with getting results out of the
quarterback. But then the flipside must be considered, that if Kubiak's
expertise is offense, then he really shouldn't get credit for how the defense
performs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Thus, a better measurement would be to consider how good Fox
was at finding offensive coordinators, versus how good Kubiak was at finding
defensive coordinators. Fox's first offensive coordinator was Dan Henning
(2001-2006), whose best ranking achieved was eighth in points scored in 2005.
With that said, the offense ranked 22nd in yards, which would suggest it benefited
from great field position. Considering that Carolina's defense ranked fifth in
points allowed and third in yards allowed, that would certainly suggest the defense
was more responsible for Carolina's success (the Panthers finished 11-5 and
reached the conference championship).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Jeff Davidson took over in 2007, and in 2008, finished
seventh in points and 10th in yards in 2008. The defense ranked in the middle
that season (12th in points allowed, 18th in yards allowed), so it is fair to
say the offense played a larger part in the 12-4 finish. Otherwise, Davidson's
offense never ranked higher than 19th in yards or 21st in points. Therefore, it
may be fair to say that one of Fox's issues was not finding the right offensive
coordinator.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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But this means that, because Kubiak's specialty is offense,
that he needs to find the right defensive coordinator. Looking at those who
served under Kubiak, you have Richard Smith (2006-2008), Frank Bush (2009-2010)
and Wade Phillips (2011-2013). Phillips had the best results, as his defenses
were top 10 in yards allowed (second, seventh and seventh) and top 10 his first
two years in points allowed (fourth and ninth). In his third year, the defense
finished 24th in points allowed, but that can probably be blamed in part on a
pedestrian offense that was ranked 11th in yards, but 31st in points.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The other two defensive coordinators, however, did not have
much to show for themselves. Smith's units were terrible, never breaking even
the top 20 in yards and points allowed. Bush got the team into the top 20 in
his first season (17th in points, 13th in yards), then the unit went right back
downhill his second season (29th in points, 30th in yards).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If I am a Broncos fan, I would be very concerned about
Kubiak's ability to find the right defensive coordinator. While he deserves
credit for bringing in Phillips, by that point, it was becoming too late for
his offense, as Schaub had exited his prime, as had top wide receiver Andre
Johnson.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Kubiak takes over in Denver, and Peyton Manning does
return, he will have a QB that, while better than Schaub at any stage of his
career, is still one who is no longer in his prime. Although the top wide
receiver (Demaryius Thomas) is in his prime, he will be a free agent.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Are we truly fine with bringing in an offensive mastermind,
whether it's to work with Peyton for a couple more years or develop Brock
Osweiler, if it means things start falling apart on the defensive side of the
ball, because you let the coach hire the wrong defensive coordinator?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
We must also consider one of the complaints about Fox: his propensity for
conservative coaching. The thought is that Kubiak will be more aggressive in
decisions to go for it on fourth down or to drive in the final seconds of a
game for a touchdown or field goal, rather than settle for overtime.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Yet consider these writings from the Battle Red Blog, one which tried to dispel the notion that he was a conservative coach, <a href="http://www.battleredblog.com/2013/12/12/5194690/the-myths-of-gary-kubiak-part-ii" target="_blank">yet found it was the case</a>, and one indicating that while he was solid at
clock management, <a href="http://www.battleredblog.com/2013/12/14/5194706/the-myths-of-gary-kubiak-part-iii" target="_blank">he was far from being one of the best</a>. Needless to say, some of the details presented don't reflect this idea that Kubiak is going to be far more aggressive every time he makes coaching
decisions. It might mean it's a little more likely Kubiak will be aggressive than Fox in these areas,
but perhaps not enough to satisfy those who believe in going for in on fourth
down more often and using time outs as wisely as possible.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is also the issue of how well the Texans played under
Kubiak when facing teams with the reputation of being the best in the NFL --
for example, the New England Patriots. In 2012 -- a season in which the Texans
finished 12-4 overall -- they lost to the Patriots 42-14 (giving up 21 points
in the first half). They met again in the playoffs, losing 41-28, in which they
trailed 17-13 at halftime, only for the Patriots to score 21 unanswered points,
before Houston scored again with 11:42 left in the fourth quarter.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2013, they lost to the Patriots, but to their credit, it
was a 34-31 outcome. But this was a game in which the Texans led the Patriots
17-7 at halftime, and 24-21 entering the fourth quarter, but couldn't put New
England away. Perhaps that can be attributed to injuries, though, but it's
worth noting that Kubiak lost his job the following week after a 27-20 loss to
Jacksonville.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Texans did beat the Patriots 34-27 in 2010, benefitting
from two early New England turnovers, then rallying in the fourth quarter to
overcome a 27-13 deficit. (The Texans were 9-7 and missed the playoffs that
season.) In 2006, they lost to New England 40-7, but perhaps that can be
attributed to being Kubiak's first year, in which he tried to resurrect David
Carr's career. But overall, Kubiak is a whopping 1-5 against Bill Belichick's
Patriots, so it's not like he's had more success against Belichick than Fox.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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What about other playoff contenders? Let's stick with 2012,
in which the Texans lost to the Green Bay Packers 42-24 (thanks in part to
three turnovers), and to the Indianapolis Colts, in which the Texans led 16-14,
then allowed Deji Karim to return a kickoff 101 yards for a touchdown, then a
70-yard pass from Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton, and lost 28-16. In the Colts
game, Schaub threw two interceptions, although it's hard to blame him for the
two big plays that gave the Colts a double-digit lead. But this begs the
question: If we blamed Fox for not rallying the troops after an opponent gets
two big plays for touchdowns, should Kubiak not be blamed in a similar
situation?</div>
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<br /></div>
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I believe if Kubiak does become the new Denver Broncos head
coach, that the areas we wish Fox had been better at, aren't going to be
improved as much as we think they are. The main difference between Fox and
Kubiak is their area of expertise. Otherwise, they share similar characteristics:
They need the right coordinators to run the area they aren't as familiar with,
they tend to be conservative with coaching decisions more often than not (with
merely a slight difference between the two), and they can have their problems
against some of the better teams in the NFL.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Sure, one can argue that Kubiak can't be judged on just one
coaching tenure. And it's fine to say the Broncos needed to move on from Fox.
But while it can be argued that Fox needed to be replaced, that doesn't mean
that Kubiak will automatically be the better coach. Fans who are pulling for
Kubiak are more likely doing so not because he's an upgrade over Fox, but for
this reason: Because former Denver Bronco.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-53200584332369641482015-01-14T09:41:00.000-08:002015-01-14T09:41:59.568-08:00Fox, Peyton, Elway And Avoiding the Impatience Trap<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
So it will happen: The Denver Broncos will enter the 2015
season with a very different coaching staff. Head coach John Fox "mutually
parted ways" with the team, defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is expected
to be named the head coach of the Raiders, and all signs point to offensive
coordinator Adam Gase becoming the head coach of the 49ers. Meanwhile, the
question remains as to whether or not Peyton Manning will be back as the
Broncos' quarterback.</div>
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Briefly touching upon Del Rio and Gase, I don't believe both of them would have been back next year, even if Fox had returned. It is not surprising that Del Rio would want another chance to be a head coach, and I believe Gase was simply ready to give head coaching a shot. With that out of the way, let's get to Fox.</div>
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I already wrote that <a href="http://smalltownsportsbeat.blogspot.com/2015/01/your-broncos-season-ending-dose-of.html" target="_blank">I believed that parting ways with Fox would be a mistake</a>, given that he just got a two-year extension this past
summer. Had there been legitimate concerns about whether or not Fox could get
the Broncos back to the Super Bowl again, and whether or not the Broncos would
have shown more fire, then a one-year extension would have made more sense.</div>
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There are those who will argue that Elway could not have
possibly foreseen what would happen this season, with the Broncos having subpar
performances against the likes of New England, St. Louis, and Cincinnati during
the regular season, and then against Indianapolis in the playoffs. Some would
include the loss to Seattle, which would amount to the perception that the
Broncos didn't put up much of a fight in every game they lost. Thus, one might
argue, Elway had no choice in the matter.</div>
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<br /></div>
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On the other hand, there's good reason to believe that
Peyton Manning was not healthy for many of the Broncos games. Most of us
chalked up Peyton's passing issues to his skills declining, and while that may
play a part, the quad injury he had played just as much of a role.</div>
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We all like to think that injuries that QBs receive from the
waist down simply affect mobility, but then we forget that mobility is more
than about buying time in the pocket, and is as much about how one sets his
feet and goes through his motion when dropping back. <a href="http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/peyton-mannings-injury-likely-from-overuse-will-be-hard-to-overcome" target="_blank">This post at It's All Over Fat Man</a> does a good job explaining what Peyton Manning might have been doing to
compensate for his neck surgery, and how it was ultimately going to affect the
rest of his body.</div>
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<br /></div>
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This brings us back to Peyton and how Fox might have been
perceiving his quarterback's health, versus Elway's desire to be more aggressive
with coaching approaches. It's not clear how much Peyton let on about the
extent of his quad injury, and how much Fox or Elway actually knew.</div>
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<br /></div>
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What is apparent, though, is that given that Elway likely
wanted more aggressive coaching, that Fox knew that meant he was expected to
pursue the best possible playoff seeding, and that Peyton Manning gave the
Broncos the best chance for the No. 1 seed. And if it is true that Peyton
didn't share all the details with Fox about the extent of his injury, then it's
possible Fox took Peyton's word and allowed him to play, knowing that if Peyton
said he could play, then Peyton gave the Broncos the best chance to win.</div>
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<br /></div>
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(I will touch briefly upon one point: I find the notion that
Fox and his coaching staff didn't trust Brock Osweiler hard to believe. When
Fox opted for Peyton over Osweiler, it is more likely he thought that, while
the Broncos could win with Osweiler, their chances of winning were improved
with Peyton, particularly the chance to get the No. 1 seed. In other words,
it's not a knock on Osweiler, but a strong belief in Peyton and what he brings
to the table.)</div>
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<br /></div>
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I don't believe we'll ever know the full extent of what went
down between Fox and Elway, or exactly what Fox or Elway did or didn't know
about Peyton's health. I will say, though, that while Fox deserves some blame
for conservative coaching decisions, and for players not coming out fired up
for games, the Broncos' struggles at times can't be placed entirely at his
feet.</div>
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<br /></div>
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This brings me to Peyton Manning, who doesn't deserve all
the blame, but does deserve his share. If he had a torn quad, he should not
have tried to play through it. If he did keep details to himself, then it's on
him, even if the head coach is supposed to know what's happening with a
player's health.</div>
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<br /></div>
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One thing to remember is that coaches want to put some trust
in their quarterbacks, and if there is ever a trust issue between the coach and
the QB, the team will have problems. And if Peyton did keep details to himself,
I don't think it's because he didn't trust Fox, but because he allowed his competitiveness
to get in the way. It's no different from other players, regardless of
position, who want to "gut it out" when they get injured.</div>
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<br /></div>
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And this brings me to Elway. I have no idea what Elway might
have been observing with regards to Peyton, but the way he talked during his
press conference, he seemed to indicate he would trust Peyton to know whether
or not his body would allow him to play. Again, this goes back to the trust
issue, in which Elway, in his position, wants to show that he trusts Peyton to be
honest.</div>
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<br /></div>
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But the lesson that Elway may need to learn from this, is
that sometimes it's a good idea to carefully watch his players, and ask himself
if a player is truly healthy enough to play. Sure, it's understandable he wants
the Broncos to win another Super Bowl. But that doesn't mean claiming the No. 1
seed is a must. That's the short-term picture -- the Super Bowl is the long
term. Sacrificing a player's health for that short-term picture can cost you
the long-term picture if you aren't careful.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The other issue is that Elway needs to be careful in how he
communicates how the team will approach this offseason and what the
expectations. Again, we all know he wants a Super Bowl win, but it's also
important that he ensure the Broncos remain a perennial playoff contender.
Let's not forget that teams such as the Patriots, Ravens, Packers and Seahawks
are among teams that want Super Bowl wins, but are primarily built to go to the
playoffs each year. Every team has fans who can get impatient if a Super Bowl
contender doesn't deliver the Vince Lombardi Trophy in multiple seasons, but
the franchises are careful not to bend over backwards for those fans.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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That's the battle ahead for Elway. Impatient fans are the
ones that scream for coaching changes the loudest, and some observers now have
the impression that four straight playoff trips and one Super Bowl appearance
isn't enough. That's exactly the impression they have regarding the Niners
parting way with Jim Harbaugh (even though the Niners didn't make the playoffs
this year). And even though, in the Niners' case, it appears more to be
impatience by the owner than by fans, giving into impatience can do more harm
than good to a franchise.</div>
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<br /></div>
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It's fine that Elway tells people he wants to win a Super
Bowl. He just needs to be clear that it's not the be-all, end-all for any
coach. I think he did as best he could in communicating that in his last
presser, in which he talked more about how he perceived that the Broncos didn't
go down swinging in their final playoff game the past two seasons.</div>
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<br /></div>
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But he needs to continue emphasizing this, because it's the
only way he'll fend off the impression that he's getting impatient. Whether or
not Peyton returns next year, the message to be sent is that the main thing the
Broncos want is to go to the playoffs each year, and to find a way to get the
Vince Lombardi Trophy. Fans may expect a juggernaut when certain moves get
heavily hyped, but that's a trap Elway cannot afford to fall into.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-15716848687747716142015-01-11T18:36:00.000-08:002015-01-11T19:10:59.968-08:00Your Broncos Season-Ending Dose of PerspectiveIt was certainly a frustrating day for Denver Broncos fans. The Broncos were coming off a season in which Peyton Manning set new records despite playing with a high ankle sprain for most of the season, and even though the Broncos were blown out in the Super Bowl, several offseason moves that happened gave fans hope that this season might be different.<br />
<br />
It was not to be, though, as the Broncos lost to the Indianapolis Colts 24-13 in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. The Broncos scored on their opening drive, but then the offense stalled on most drives after that. The Denver defense had its moments, but gave up some big plays. Perhaps the most frustrating part is the Broncos, on paper, had the better roster, but the Colts were able to find ways to disrupt the Broncos on both sides of the ball.<br />
<br />
The first thing the Colts did was take away with the short routes underneath that Peyton Manning likes to throw to get himself into a rhythm. This is not exclusive to Peyton, as Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers all like to do this as well. With Peyton, the Colts were daring him to beat them with downfield throws. Peyton was able to do this on the opening drive when he connected with Julius Thomas, but on the next drive, failed twice to connect with Emmanuel Sanders and he never recovered after that. It wasn't until the final desperation drive that the Colts switched things up, because they knew Peyton was going to attack downfield and toward the sidelines, so they wouldn't allow any such passes. (I will add it didn't help that left tackle Ryan Clady struggled, which has been the case for him much of the season.)<br />
<br />
On defense, the problems really didn't start with the lack of a pass rush, as the Broncos were able to generate some pressure. What was the bigger issue was the early decision by the Broncos to put Aqib Talib on T.Y. Hilton. This proved to be a mismatch, as every time Talib defended Hilton, it was Hilton who won the matchup (aside from one down on which Talib got away with tugging on Hilton's jersey). I'm perplexed as to why the Broncos didn't assign Chris Harris to him the entire game, as Harris contained Hilton in the Broncos' season opener against Indy. It is true that Hilton has improved, but so has Harris, who was coming offseason surgery for a partially torn ACL when he opened the season. Allowing Hilton to dictate policy is exactly what you don't do, as Andrew Luck will find Hilton if he gets open.<br />
<br />
It didn't help that the Broncos had to limit the snaps for linebacker Brandon Marshall, who was still not fully recovered from an ankle sprain. The Broncos' injury issues at linebacker, at which they lost Nate Irving and Danny Trevathan, hurt the team's rotation and became a bigger issue as the season progressed. Linebacker has been an issue for the Broncos, and just when it seemed they might be on their way to solving it, the injury bug hit and the Broncos didn't have many options to compensate.<br />
<br />
The Broncos now enter the offseason with plenty of questions that fans will be asking -- mostly the fans who are insistent that anything short of a Super Bowl win is cause for cleaning house. These fans need to keep some perspective, as it wasn't that long ago that the Broncos stumbled through three mediocre seasons under Mike Shanahan, as he continued to reload when he really needed to rebuild, then Josh McDaniels failed to prove that he could get the team back on track, and in his first season, John Fox found himself stuck with either Kyle Orton or Tim Tebow as his QB options, yet managed to put together a respectable season. In other words, Broncos fans need to admit that they have been a spoiled bunch and to step away from the ledge, even if they expected to go back to the Super Bowl this season.<br />
<br />
Allow me to give some perspective on how certain situations need to be treated as the Broncos enter the offseason.<br />
<br />
<b>Coaching:</b> John Fox has tended to be conservative with his coaching decisions, but in today's game, those decisions really weren't the issue. The first time he was faced with fourth and one, he wisely chose to go for it, and that was still the right call even if CJ Anderson hadn't made the extra effort to get the first down. Later, it was fourth and four and the Broncos down by eight, when Fox opted for a 44-yard field goal. I would have leaned toward going for it, but I don't believe it's a clear-cut decision to do so. On fourth and nine as the Broncos were fighting for that last gasp, Fox was obviously correct to go for it, and Peyton likely chose the throw he made because nothing else was available. Fox's challenge on the failed conversion came out of desperation, but I can't fault him for it, because it was either try the challenge or let the Colts get the ball without showing he was trying to put up a fight.<br />
<br />
There are, of course, other games in which Fox made questionable coaching decisions, particularly when it came to whether or not to convert on fourth down or when to use challenges. It is correct to call him a good, but not a great, coach. And, like with most coaches, there are legitimate criticisms regarding how he approaches the game, and it's fair to ask if he's truly willing to adjust and try different things. But it still wouldn't be a good decision to fire him right now and look elsewhere.<br />
<br />
The Broncos gave Fox an extension through 2016 this past summer, so dismissing him means they have to pay him for two years to sit at home (unless he were to take another coaching job). It may be what some fans want, but it would be a panic move designed simply to pacify the fanbase. Pat Bowlen might have been doing that when he brought Elway into the front office, but since Elway arrived, he has mostly made smart moves and needs to continue keeping a level head. Fox should return for 2015, then Elway can re-evaluate after that season. Obviously, if the Broncos don't make the playoffs next year, Fox should be fired. If they do make the playoffs, they can then judge based on how deep the team goes in the playoffs. If they did decide to part ways after 2015, they only have to pay him for one year. Additionally, it would show Elway is being more meticulous with his decision making, rather than giving the impression that he is getting desperate to get Peyton (and everyone else) a ring, and allowing the whims of spoiled Broncos fans to dictate decisions.<br />
<br />
Besides, if they do opt for a change, what guarantee do they have that they'll get the coach they want? Todd Bowles might get hired quickly, given that several teams have interviewed him and might not want to wait for the Seahawks to finish their run and then be able to pursue Dan Quinn. Rex Ryan is already out of the equation. Neither Mike Shanahan nor Josh McDaniels is going to come back (nor should they). I'm not certain if they really want to try luring Gary Kubiak -- it may pacify Broncos fans who love him, but Kubiak had mixed results when he was with the Texans. (UPDATE: Kubiak has already announced he will return to the Ravens next season, so he's no longer an option.) And does it really sound like that Doug Marrone is a better option?<br />
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At the coordinator positions, I suspect Jack Del Rio will be the next head coach of the Raiders. That would allow the Broncos to bring back Dennis Allen, who had a very good season with the Broncos as defensive coordinator in 2011. Adam Gase could go either way, although the divisional playoff game might make interested teams reconsider. If he's not hired elsewhere, I'm fine with him returning. Perhaps some changes could be made with other coaching positions, but care should be taken to evaluate each of them, and not base it solely on what fans watch on the field, because what is obvious to a fan is only part of the equation as to what any issues with a team really are.<br />
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<b>Peyton Manning:</b> Get ready for all the questions about whether or not it's time for Peyton to hang it up. On one hand, Peyton's play is declining, and he's not able to attack downfield effectively and thus teams can more easily limit what he does best, because they don't have to worry as much about those downfield throws. Also, he may be concerned about whether or not his body can take it any more. On the other hand, there are certain passing records within Peyton's grasp and he probably doesn't want to go out after having a subpar playoff outing.<br />
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I suspect Peyton will return next season, but I also believe it will be his last season. He will likely believe he can use the offseason to get back to full strength, then see what moves the Broncos make to get the final pieces in place, and give it one last shot. But regardless of what happens in 2015, I just don't see any reason that Peyton would want to stick around beyond that season. Another year without a Super Bowl is certainly not what he wants, but if he sticks around too long, he'll start looking desperate for that second ring.<br />
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In the meantime, the Broncos do need to carefully evaluate Brock Osweiler's progress, to determine if he can be the guy who can take over whenever Peyton decides to retire. If they don't think he's the answer, they may need to consider drafting a QB. With that said, it shouldn't be done simply to appease Broncos fans. I'm sure there a few Broncos fans who would love to see CSU quarterback Garrett Grayson become part of Denver's franchise. But bear in mind that, with the slim first-round pickings at the QB position, many other teams will be eyeing Grayson as well, and a move up the draft board might do the Broncos more harm than good.<br />
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<b>Offseason gameplan:</b> The Broncos will have to approach free agency differently this time around, because their priority will now be focused on re-signing key players. They were wise to get Chris Harris extended, but Demaryius Thomas, Orlando Franklin, and Terrance Knighton remain top priorities. They should also extend Julius Thomas, but be careful not to overpay him. Will Montgomery and Rahim Moore are worth bringing back at the right price. Virgil Green will likely get a deal done quickly, since he won't command much money. The good news is that extending their own players will address most offseason needs, and then they can focus on the draft.<br />
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The Broncos do need to figure out what they will do with the offensive line. Ryan Clady had a down year, but if Peyton returns, letting Clady go isn't an option. He will very likely be asked to restructure his deal, though. The Broncos really do need to retain Franklin and decide whether he will play left guard or right tackle. If the former, then the Broncos can try Michael Schofield at right tackle, but make sure they find a veteran who can push him (unless they think they can get one in the draft and he can hold up as a rookie). If they move Franklin back to tackle, they can try Ben Garland at guard or find a low-price veteran, although they would definitely need to draft at that position.<br />
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And regardless of what the Broncos do with Moore, they need to address depth at the safety position. They will also need depth at the linebacker position, particularly if they do not re-sign Nate Irving. Linebacker is likely to be a focus in the draft this time around.<br />
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Meanwhile, the Broncos need to continue doing a wise job of structuring contracts to be cap friendly, so they can get out of the deals quickly if some signings don't work out as expected. Keep in mind that the deals for DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward are all, for practical purposes, deals in which they get two years worth of money and then "we'll see." Doing the same with the other players they need to extend is a wise move and will allow them flexibility for future seasons -- or as Elway puts it, ensuring the Broncos are built to "win now and in the future."<br />
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<b>A dose of perspective:</b> Most of all, Broncos fans need to keep in mind that most teams, and their fans, would happily trade places with Denver if it meant multiple playoff trips. Just ask yourself what it must feel like to be a fan of the Browns (who always seem to frustrate their fanbase), the Jets (who are often the butt of jokes), the Dolphins (who have been teasing the fans with possible playoff trips, but keep coming up short), the Bears (who certainly expected playoff trips and aren't getting them), the Washington franchise (which has underachieved nearly every season since Dan Snyder bought the team), and the division rival Raiders (every Broncos fan knows the story here).<br />
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I can personally guarantee that the fans of those teams mentioned are saying, "I would love to have a team that wins four division titles in a row and goes to a Super Bowl." And there are plenty of fans of other teams who would feel the same way. It may be frustrating for Broncos fans to build expectations sky high and then not see the expected results, and you always want to do better when you don't reach the Super Bowl.<br />
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But if you think it couldn't get any worse, just take a look at other teams around the NFL and you'll know that it can be worse, and that you know very well you wouldn't trade the past four seasons for multiple years of genuine frustration. Remember, you already experienced that from 2006 to 2010.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-37753557170948101972015-01-09T07:34:00.000-08:002015-01-09T07:34:45.287-08:00Determining Who Really Belongs in the Pro Football HOFI will link to a post I wrote on my LiveJournal several years ago about what I believe is a better method for determining who belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Thought it was worth revisiting now that the finalists have been named for the Class of 2015.<br />
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I won't re-post everything, but will direct you to that page, while listing the questions to consider, questions that I based off Bill James' criteria for the Baseball Hall of Fame.<br />
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<a href="http://ratrangerm.livejournal.com/259188.html" target="_blank">Here's the link to the full post</a>. The questions I think should be considered:<br />
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1. Was the player ever regarded as the best player in football?<br />2. Was he regarded as the best player on his team? On his team’s offense? On his team’s defense?<br />3. Was he the best player at his position? Did he do anything that helped define the position?<br />4. Did he have an impact on a number of playoff runs?<br />5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?<br />6. Is he truly the best player in the history of football who is not in the Hall of Fame?<br />7. Is he truly the best player <i>at his position</i> who is eligible to be in the Hall of Fame but is not in?<br />8. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?<br />9. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?<br />10. Did the player elevate the play of his teammates and make them better?<br />11.
If this player were the best player on his team, would it be likely
that his team could get to the playoffs and make a deep run?<br />12. What impact did the player have on football history? Did he change the game in any way?<br />13. Did the player uphold the standards of character and sportsmanship that should be considered for Hall of Fame conclusion?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-67200776686762964352014-12-31T13:48:00.001-08:002015-01-02T12:24:38.331-08:00The Desirability of the NFL Coaching Vacancies<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
UPDATE, 1/2/15: Since I wrote this blog post, Doug Marrone opted out of his contract with the Buffalo Bills. I have now added Buffalo to this list.<br />
<br />
--- <br />
<br />
Six NFL teams will be looking for head coaches this
offseason, and there will be plenty of people interviewed for those jobs. But
how desirable are the available openings?</div>
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<br /></div>
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When you look at certain NFL teams, you find those
franchises that have had plenty of success and those that have had struggled to
put together winning seasons on a regular basis. The ones in the latter
category tend to be those franchises which aren't run well, and much of that
falls on ownership. The best owners are those that will allow their coaches and
general managers to run operations as they see fit, and then evaluate them
regularly. The least desirable owners are those who meddle too much in the
day-to-day operations and get too worried about a coach who
isn't afraid to express his opinion.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Additionally, what makes a coaching job desirable can also
depend on the players already on the roster, how many of those players are
expected to stay on the roster, and what the general manager situation is like.
These factors can have an impact on how well the coach is able to do his job.</div>
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With that in mind, I've ranked the five head coaching
vacancies in order of desirability:</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Atlanta:</b> Arthur Blank is not without his faults, but he has
generally been an owner who will allow those he hires to run the team, be
allowed to do so without intervening in the day-to-day operations. In his press
conference, it was pretty clear he liked Mike Smith, the man who was removed as
head coach, but felt there was no choice in the matter but to let Smith go.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Additionally, there are some good players on the roster,
such as Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Desmond Trufant, so it's not a complete
rebuilding project. It's not exactly a "reloading" situation, though,
as the defense does need much overhauling and there are some positions on the
offense to address.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The general manager, Thomas Dimitroff, has had a fairly good
track record with his drafts, but his ventures into free agency have been hit
or miss. And, while Blank isn't considered the impatient type, there might be
some concern as to how much longer Blank will give Dimitroff to turn things
around in terms of personnel decisions.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Still, the Falcons have the most desirable head coaching
position. It's the one position I would accept if I were Rex Ryan, as he would
be in a more stable situation than he was with his previous employer.<br />
<br />
<b>Buffalo:</b> The Bills are now under the ownership of Terry Pegula, and while it remains to be seen how he will fare as the owner, it does appear that he will follow a similar path to Ralph Wilson, in that he will allow those who run the day-to-day operations to do so. A new coach will know he will get to start fresh with a new owner in building a good franchise.<br />
<br />
And in Buffalo, there isn't that much building that needs to be done. The defense was very good and the majority of the players will return. There are some quality receivers and offensive linemen as well. The Bills do need a quarterback, and will have to determine what to do at running back, though, and this must be accomplished without a first-round pick in the 2015 draft.<br />
<br />
That brings us to the general manager, Doug Whaley, who took over late last year. While it isn't clear how much influence he had on all of the Bills' recent draft picks, it does appear fair to credit him with the decisions made in the 2014 draft. Considering that he gave up a lot to move up in the draft to select Sammy Watkins, it's not quite a good reflection on his draft acumen. A new coach might wonder if Whaley might not be with the franchise for much longer, particularly if Watkins doesn't pay greater dividends next season.<br />
<br />
That aside, there is plenty to like about the Bills' situation, so while it's not as desirable as the Falcons, it's still a good landing spot. As the Bills have a good defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz, it's an ideal place for a offensive-minded coach who can help the offense improve, particularly at the QB position.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Chicago:</b> The Bears ownership is not without its weaknesses,
but again, this is a team in which the owners aren't constantly meddling in the
day-to-day operations. So whoever is hired as a coach should feel comfortable
that he will be allowed to do his job as he sees fit.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Additionally, whoever is the new coach will get to start
with a new general manager, so there won't be any immediate concerns about a
general manager who may be on a short leash. The new coach could work with the
new GM to construct a roster that would fit a common vision.</div>
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<br /></div>
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There are some pieces in place on the offense, but the one
issue is whether or not the Bears wish to keep Jay Cutler, given how
undesirable his contract is, relative to his on-field performance. Would the
new coach be willing to give Cutler a chance to redeem himself, or would he
prefer to move on, and if the latter, could he do so without raising a huge
fuss about it? Additionally, the defense must be rebuilt almost entirely, all
while trying to deal with a few underachieving players who weren't signed to
team-friendly contracts.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I don't believe Chicago is as desirable a landing spot as
Atlanta, but it's not a bad situation overall. It just requires a coach who,
along with the new GM, can clearly communicate with the fanbase about their
vision and can delicately handle the quarterback situation.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Oakland:</b> It's hard to figure out exactly what direction Mark
Davis wants the Raiders to go, but at the very least, he's nowhere near as
hands-on with team affairs as his father was. There are questions, though, as
to whether or not he truly allows the men in charge to do their jobs. One only
needs to look back at the Rodger Saffold situation and wonder what role Davis
played in that.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Speaking of which, that brings us to Reggie McKenzie, who
has been hit or miss with his personnel decisions. He's been solid from a
drafting standpoint, but not as good in free agency. While he did get the cap
situation back under control, his signings last season seemed more about
showing he was willing to spend money, rather than improve the team overall.
And there is the question about how long McKenize may last in his position.</div>
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<br /></div>
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With that said, some of the players he has drafted could pay
dividends down the road. Khalil Mack looks like a very good find, Derek Carr
improved throughout the season, and D.J. Hayden showed some promise when he was
able to take the field.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Raiders do have a few good selling points, but the questions
surrounding ownership and the GM make this one not as desirable. It will
certainly require a coach who is willing to show a lot of patience and can do a good job selling his vision.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>New York Jets:</b> We now come to one of the two teams with an
owner who tends to meddle too much into team affairs. Woody Johnson is most
frequently cited as the person who wanted Tim Tebow when the Broncos put him on
the trading block several years ago, and reportedly had a hand in bringing
Brett Favre on board. One has to wonder if he is going to be content to back
away and let those who run the day-to-day operations, to do their jobs as they
see fit.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Still, there are some desirable points to the job. The Jets
will be looking for a new general manager, so as with Chicago, the coach and GM
can be linked together for a common vision. The Jets do have a few quality
players on both sides of the ball, although they do have plenty of positions
that remain a question mark. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, there is the media presence to consider. The Jets
come under far more scrutiny than the Giants do, in large part because the
franchise has been so inconsistent over the years. It adds up to a position in
which a coach might be able to find some success, but will need to clearly
communicate that the team is rebuilding and that there is no quick fix. That's
something he'll have to especially communicate to Johnson, who strikes me as an
owner who wants to win now.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>San Francisco:</b> One would think the 49ers job would be a
desirable one -- after all, look at all the talent they have, and they aren't
that far removed from three playoff trips! Except a closer look reveals that
the Niners are projected to be above the salary cap next season, they will
likely cut loose several veterans, some of the younger players now carry
question marks, and they could lose a few key free agents. In other words, the
Niners might be closer to a team in need of rebuilding than one that needs to
reload.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And then there's general manager Trent Baalke, who seems to
have the trust of Jed York, but who knows how long that will last. Baalke's
draft record has been spotty, and given the team's cap situation, the draft is
where the team really needs to get it right. How can a new coach trust that
Baalke will get it right, and that he will stick around for more than a season
if things don't go so well in 2015?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Finally, there is Jed York, who has given me the impression
of an owner who is more interested in having a coach who never expresses an
opinion, regardless of what results he gets on the field. Jim Harbaugh can be a
pain to deal with, but he gets results more often than not. Owners who aren't
interested in meddling in the day-to-day operations of a team would happily
keep Harbaugh around -- they might not always agree with what he says, but it
wouldn't matter to them if their teams kept making playoff appearances and were
a Super Bowl favorite.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
York's response to those questioning what happened with
Harbaugh is the reason I don't find the Niners' job to be very desirable. I
suspect any coach who goes there will have a hard time finding success,
particularly a coach who isn't afraid to express his opinion on the direction
he thinks the team should take. The fact ownership in San Francisco seems more
interested in having a "yes man" for a coach makes this a job I would
not have interest in.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-52951367905205869622014-12-18T09:37:00.002-08:002014-12-18T09:37:29.229-08:00Oh Where, Oh Where, Will Our Little Jay Cutler Go?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
It was just a few years ago that people were wondering why the
Denver Broncos would want to trade a franchise quarterback.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Fast forward to today, and that franchise quarterback has
been benched for Jimmy Clausen and may be on the move again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The decision to replace Chicago Bears starting quarterback
with Clausen would appear to signal the end of Cutler's tenure with the Bears.
Cutler's story has been that of a quarterback who has plenty of talent, but has
never been able to reach his potential.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Still, this was a player whom the Bears rewarded with a
contract that gave him $38 million in fully guaranteed money for the 2014 and
2015 seasons. If he remains with the Bears by the third day of the 2015 league
year, he gets an additional $10 million in full guarantees for 2016. It remains
a head-scratching deal for a quarterback who has been inconsistent throughout
his career and, while he and the Bears did reach the NFC championship game in
the 2010 season, he has no other playoff trips.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One might argue, at the time Cutler signed his new contract,
that there weren't any better options available. Still, the Bears could have
protected themselves with a contract that fully guaranteed his 2014 salary,
then made his 2015 and 2016 salaries guaranteed for injury only.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But that aside, given that the Bears would take too great a
cap hit by releasing Cutler after this season, and would still have to pay him
$15.5 million, it means that their only option is to trade him. A trade would
likely mean the Bears would have to agree to pay a portion of his 2015 salary.
The Bears would also have to accept that they would, at the most, get a 2015
second-round pick and a quarterback in return, and might get a conditional pick
in 2016 (said pick would be on the condition that the team who acquires Cutler makes the playoffs in 2015).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But who would be the suitors? There are a few teams who
could be in the market for a quarterback next season, so let's go over them,
from least likely to most likely.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Miami:</b> There is some talk that the Dolphins might want to
upgrade at quarterback in hopes of making that final push to the playoffs. And
Ryan Tannehill would certainly be an attractive option for the Bears. However,
the Dolphins are projected to be slightly over the cap next season (about $2.6
million) and would have to make a lot of moves to fit Cutler's deal under the
cap. Since that would mean cutting some players who could help the Dolphins
with a playoff push, trading for Cutler would be counterproductive. I think you
can safely scratch the Dolphins from the list of suitors.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Philadelphia:</b> The Eagles are a playoff contender that has
some question marks at the quarterback position. Nick Foles regressed from last
season, prior to his injury, and Mark Sanchez continues to be inconsistent.
Philly would be an attractive landing spot for Cutler, as he would join a
playoff contender with some good talent in place. And if the Bears get Foles,
they would have a solid, young QB. The issue for the Eagles is their cap space
is tight, projected at slightly less than $4 million. Philly might be able to
free up some space by restructuring contracts, but failing that, they'd have to
release some players. The question is whether or not Philly would feel
comfortable doing that, and if they truly believe that Chip Kelly can correct
Cutler's issues at quarterback enough to compensate for any players they part
ways with. Call the Eagles a remote possibility.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>St. Louis:</b> The Rams make sense on the surface, given that
Jeff Fisher supposedly liked Cutler in the 2006 NFL draft, before being pushed
toward Vince Young. There is also a good amount of talent on the Rams, and they
most certainly need a better QB, unless they really believe Sam Bradford should
get one more season to prove himself. Again, though, the Rams are tight on
projected cap space (about $5.3 million), although parting ways with Bradford
would free up a lot of space -- but maybe not enough for them to accommodate Cutler's
contract and still allow space for draft picks and low-cost free
agents. The Rams may be more likely to pursue lower-cost options at QB. As with the Eagles, the Rams are a remote possibility.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Houston:</b> The Texans certainly have the talent in place and a
good quarterback could boost their chances of reaching the playoffs next year.
Houston is projected to have $10 million in cap space, but could get some
wiggle room by either cutting Ryan Fitzpatrick or including him in a trade with
the Bears (Fitzpatrick would at least give Chicago a short-term solution). It's
possible Andre Johnson could agree to restructure his deal if he believes
Cutler could get the Texans back into the playoffs, and Houston could also cut
underachieving cornerback Jonathan Joseph. Questions to answer, though, may be whether or
not Bill O'Brien believes he can get the most out of Cutler, and if the Bears
would be OK with Fitzpatrick in 2015. Call it a 50-50 chance.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Buffalo:</b> The Bills have a lot of pieces in place except for
one: A quarterback who can put them over the top. The irony of such a trade is
that Kyle Orton would enter the picture again... if you recall, the Broncos
acquired Orton as part of their Cutler trade. That doesn't mean Orton would be
sent to Chicago, although it's not out of the question. It might also be the
chance for the Bills to unload EJ Manuel and allow the former first-round pick
a fresh start. The Bills, though, would have to do some maneuvering with the
cap (they are projected to be $16 million under), and they might prefer to use
that cap space to re-signing pending free agents, most notably defensive end Jerry Hughes. As
with the Texans, it looks like a 50-50 chance that Cutler goes to Buffalo.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Washington:</b> We have all heard the stories about Dan Snyder
and his love for making splashy moves. And as we all remember, Washington was
close to acquiring Cutler back in 2008, when the Bears entered the picture and
things unfolded differently. Washington's cap space is projected at $16
million, but Snyder has never been too worried about fitting name players under
the cap. As for the Bears, they could get Robert Griffin III as part of the
deal and choose not to pick up his 2016 option, while finding out if RG3 can
resurrect his career. The only question, though, is whether or not Washington's
past flirtations with Cutler were rooted in the idea that Mike Shanahan would
coach the team, and we all know that's not happening again. A good, but not
great, chance that Cutler ends up in Washington.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Cleveland:</b> It's pretty clear that Brian Hoyer isn't the
answer at quarterback, and now some doubts are creeping in about whether or not
Johnny Manziel is the long-term solution, even though Manziel has just one NFL
start under his belt. Some in Cleveland might think that acquiring Cutler would
push the Browns into the playoff hunt, especially because the Browns will have
two first-round picks in 2015 to address immediate<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>needs. Combine that with some players who
will return from injury (most notable, center Alex Mack), and an offensive
coordinator who might know what to do with Cutler (Kyle Shanahan, Mike's son),
and it would appear to be a good fit. The wild card in this situation is
obviously Manziel, who would likely become part of the trade package. But would
the Browns be that quick to declare the Manziel experiment is already over? And
would the Bears be welcoming of Johnny Football into their environment? Another
good, but not great, chance of this happening. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Tennessee:</b> We have heard stories about how Ken Whisenhunt is
good at working with quarterbacks, although he hasn't gotten much out of the passers he has in Tennessee. For all of Cutler's faults, he's certainly a better
quarterback than any of the passers the Titans currently have. Tennessee is in
position to finish with the second overall pick in the draft, meaning they may
be forced to decide whichever QB that doesn't go first overall (whether that's Marcus
Mariota or Jameis Winston) is worth selecting. That could make them consider
trading for Cutler, and they will have the cap space to accommodate his deal.
With Tennessee, though, there really isn't a QB that would be worth it for
Chicago to acquire in a trade, so the Titans might have to throw in a
late-round pick in 2015. That alone shouldn't keep the Titans from being one of
the more likely landing spots for Cutler, though.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Tampa Bay:</b> Cutler played under head coach Lovie Smith for
several years -- and, hey, the Bears could bring back Josh McCown! Seriously, the
Buccaneers are definitely in the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>market
for a quarterback, and if they do get the No. 1 overall pick, who knows if they
would be sold on Mariota or Winston. If the Bucs finish with the No. 1 overall
pick, and were to acquire Cutler, they could then offer the top pick to the
highest bidder. The Bucs do have the cap space to acquire Cutler, and while
it's not a given that they would send McCown to the Bears, they could offer
Mike Glennon, a very low-cost option. On top of that, the NFC South was a weak
division this year and acquiring the right quarterback could thrust Tampa Bay to
the top. Finally, Tampa Bay did inquire about Cutler back in 2008. The only
question is whether the Bucs will prefer to build around a younger QB. But the
chances of Cutler going to Tampa Bay are very good.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>New York Jets:</b> And here we go... we all know about how Woody
Johnson wants the Jets to be the center of attention and to get back to the
playoffs again. And look at all that cap space the Jets have. And consider that
their chances of finishing with one of the top two picks are slim, and a couple
of teams who may finish ahead of them in the 2015 draft, happen to need
quarterbacks. What better way for Woody Johnson to make headlines and fill a
pressing need than to acquire Jay Cutler? Of course, you have to remember that
John Izdik is the general manager and would probably not want to bite the
bullet on such a trade. But if Izdik is fired, Johnson could instead choose to
bring in a GM who wants to spend that cap space. The Jets could offer Geno
Smith in return as part of the deal, with the idea that Smith could benefit
from a fresh start in Chicago. Even if Izdik sticks around, he could be
under pressure to make a bold move, and acquiring Cutler would be just that.
It's not a lock that Cutler would go to the Jets this offseason, but given the
circumstances surrounding this team, the Jets would be the least surprising
team to acquire him. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17926613208957316745noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1325298916200547915.post-46219158627795163982014-11-26T12:44:00.001-08:002014-11-26T12:49:11.281-08:00How The Broncos Could Possibly Approach the 2015 Offseason<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Denver Broncos fans have been used to John Elway making
headlines with his moves in free agency. In past seasons, he has brought in the
likes of Peyton Manning, Wes Welker, DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib, all
high-profile names.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The chances that it happens again this offseason are slim,
not because cap space is tight or because the Broncos spent so much money in
past years, but because the priority will be to get pending free agents
re-signed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There is concern among some fans that the Broncos might lose
a lot of players in free agency, especially because teams such as the Jets, the
Raiders and the Jaguars will enter the 2015 offseason with a lot of cap space.
Per estimates from Over the Cap, with <a href="http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/" target="_blank">a projected cap of about $140 million</a> for
2015, the Raiders will have $54.8 million in space, the Jags will have $44
million and the Jets $41.1 million.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Broncos are not in a tight cap situation, though,
as Over the Cap estimates the team's space to be $32 million. That's actually
plenty of space to get a few players re-signed, while still allowing the
Broncos to add a low-cost free agent or two, then sign their draft players and
a few rookie free agents.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To get an idea about what the Broncos can do to retain their
top free agents, you can visit Over the Cap's <a href="http://overthecap.com/calculator/denver-broncos/" target="_blank">salary cap calculator</a> and play
around with it. Keep in mind that in order to keep the players you want to
retain, you must consider the following:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Which players to cut to free up cap space.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Which players to restructure deals, converting base salary
and roster bonuses into signing bonuses, giving you more cap room to work with
now, while pushing some of the hit down the road.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Which players are the priority to re-sign and how to
structure their deals.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Which player, if any, you should place the franchise tag
on, with the possibility of signing that player to an extension.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I put together a list of moves that the Broncos can make to
gain additional cap space, then determined which players were the priority to
extend and which player to franchise, then went from there to determine what needs
are to be filled in free agency elsewhere or in the draft. For players who are
given extensions, I provided the breakdowns of their contracts, to give
everyone the idea about how to structure a contract to make it cap friendly.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Start with the Broncos
having $32 million in cap space.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
THE CUTS</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Cut Britton Colquitt
to save $2.25 million in cap space.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is an obvious move to make. Colquitt would be due a $3
million base salary, which is way too much considering how much he has
underachieved the past two seasons. He will turn 30 next year, so it's not
likely the Broncos would re-sign him for less money, even if he is willing to
take it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The cap space rises
from $32 million to $34.2 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Cut Andre Caldwell,
saving $1.35 million in cap space.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It should be safe to cut Caldwell, even though the Broncos
have two wide receivers who will be free agents. They drafted Cody Latimer and
will get Jordan Norwood back, and Norwood comes at a lower salary. Plus the
Broncos could find a wide receiver who can play special teams through free
agency and likely get him for less money than Caldwell would cost.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The cap space rises
from $34.2 million to $35.6 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Cut Manny Ramirez to
save $2.3 million in cap space.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ramirez turns 32 next year, has regressed this season and is
not worth a $2.4 million cap hit at this point. The Broncos could find better
options in free agency, or perhaps Ben Garland will be ready to take over as a
starter. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The cap space rises
from $35.6 million to $37.9 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
THE RESTRUCTURES</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Restructure Ryan
Clady's contract, by converting his $1.5 million roster bonus and $5 million of
his base salary into a $6.5 million signing bonus. Clady would still receive a
$3.5 million base salary, fully guaranteed.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When you restructure a contract, you are not cutting the
player's salary, but converting base salary and any roster bonuses into a
signing bonus, which you can then spread out over the remaining years of the
contract. The player benefits because he is given a lump sum of fully
guaranteed money, and the team benefits by gaining cap space.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Clady would still get his money in full for 2015, with the
only difference being how much is in the form of a signing bonus, so there
should not be any issues with getting him to agree to restructure. If Clady
doesn't agree to this restructure, he is very likely to be cut, so it would
make more sense for Clady to agree to restructure, ensuring he gets the $10
million in money he is set to make. If he were cut, it's highly unlikely
another team will give him $10 million for the 2015 season.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The cap space rises
from $37.9 million to $42.2 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Restructure/extend
Louis Vasquez's contract, by converting $4 million of his $5 million base
salary into a signing bonus, and giving him an additional year on his contract
into 2017 for $5.5 million (not guaranteed).</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A restructure with a one-year extension would benefit
Vasquez, because the $5 million in base salary is not fully guaranteed, but
converting much of that into a signing bonus gives him fully guaranteed money
for the 2015 season. Because he has been one of Denver's better linemen, and
will still be in the prime of his career, it makes sense to add a year to his
deal, at the same amount he is set to make in 2016. The Broncos, meanwhile,
benefit from additional cap relief.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The cap space rises
from $42.2 million to $44.9 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
THE TENDERS</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">No tenders will be
extended to Tony Carter or John Youboty</b>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It's clear that Carter is not going to be with the Broncos
next season. As for Youboty, the Broncos are in good shape at defensive end, so
they don't absolutely need to keep Youboty. They can always find undrafted
rookies they could sign to provide competition for training camp.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Original round RFA
tenders and/or ERFA tenders to Ben Garland, Paul Cornick, Brandon Marshall,
Steven Johnson and Aaron Brewer.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
First of all, I am hearing different stories regarding LB
Brandon Marshall, with some saying that he is a restricted free agent, while
others say he is an exclusive rights free agent. Regardless, it's clear the
Broncos need to tender him. Assuming he is an RFA, an original round tender is
$1.33 million.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As for the others, Garland and Cornick are ERFAs, while
Johnson and Brewer are RFAs. I think the Broncos will want to keep Garland and
Cornick because of their familiarity with what the Broncos do. Johnson
is a quality depth and special teams player who is worth an original round
tender, and Brewer has been a good long snapper. I doubt either player will be
highly coveted by other teams, so an original round tender for both makes
sense.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The tenders reduce the
cap space from $44.9 million to $39.9 million</i>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
THE EXTENSIONS</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here I will focus on the players who the
Broncos should re-sign. These are the players in which the Broncos will need to
do a good job of structuring contracts and signing bonuses to make them cap
friendly, while still rewarding each player with a pay increase worthy of their
overall play.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Re-sign Chris Harris to
a five-year, $65 million contract. The contract would include an $11 million
signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of $1.5
million. He would have 2016 and 2017 salaries of $11 million and $12 million,
guaranteed for injury only, becoming fully guaranteed if he's on the roster on
a certain date.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I examined the contracts for <a href="http://overthecap.com/player/joe-haden/284" target="_blank">Joe Haden</a>, <a href="http://overthecap.com/player/richard-sherman/1565" target="_blank">Richard Sherman</a> and
<a href="http://overthecap.com/player/patrick-peterson/417/" target="_blank">Patrick Peterson</a> to get an idea about how the Broncos can structure Harris'
contract. Here's what the structure would look like.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Year<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Base Salary<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Prorated<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Hit<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Dead
Money<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Savings</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2015<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1.5M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$3.7M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$12.5M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>($8.8M)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2016<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$11M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$13.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$8.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$4.4M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2017<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$12M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$14.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$6.6M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$7.6M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2018<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$14.5M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$16.7M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$4.4M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$12.3M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2019<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$15M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$17.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$2.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$15M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As you can see, the years in which Harris' contract would
take the greatest hit are pushed down the road when the cap is expected to rise
further. Harris benefits by getting $12.5 million in fully guaranteed money,
and in the next two seasons, he can ensure himself that money by continuing to
perform at the high level he has shown. In 2018, the Broncos can decide whether
or not to restructure/extend his deal to get cap relief and reward him again
with fully guaranteed money.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This contact reduces
the cap space from $39.9 million to $36.2 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Re-sign Demaryius
Thomas to a five-year, $70 million contract. The contract would include a $14
million signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of
$1 million. He would have 2016 and 2017 salaries of $13 million each year,
guaranteed for injury only, becoming fully guaranteed if he's on the roster on
a certain date.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I used the contracts that <a href="http://overthecap.com/player/mike-wallace/519/" target="_blank">Mike Wallace</a> and <a href="http://overthecap.com/player/percy-harvin/1554/" target="_blank">Percy Harvin</a>
recently signed as baselines, but took into account that Thomas is deserving of
more money than either of those receivers. I figure that an average salary per
year of $14 million is what he will command, as that would put him among the
top five salaries for wide receivers. Here is the contract structure.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Year<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Base Salary<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Prorated<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Hit<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Dead
Money<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Savings</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2015<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$3.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$15M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>($11.2M)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2016<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$13M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$15.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$11.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$4.6M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2017<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$13M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$15.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$8.4M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$7.4M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2018<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$14M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$16.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$5.6M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$11.2M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2019<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$15M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$17.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$2.8M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$15M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Again, the largest figures in the contract are pushed down
to the final two years, plus Thomas can ensure himself a large portion of the
contract by continuing to perform at a high level. As with Harris, the Broncos
can decide what to do with Thomas in 2018.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This contract
extension reduces the cap space from $36.2 million to $32.4 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Re-sign Orlando
Franklin to a four-year, $21 million contract. The contract would include a $4
million signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of
$1 million. His 2016 salary of $5 million is guaranteed for injury only,
becoming fully guaranteed if he's on the roster on a certain date.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I looked at Louis Vasquez, who got a similar deal, only with
slightly more total money ($23 million). Franklin might have to take less
money, but such a contract would still reward him well, especially because he
has never made more than $1 million in a single season. Here is the structure for this contract. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Year<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Base Salary<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Prorated<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Hit<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Dead
Money<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Savings</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2015<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$5M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>($3M)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2016<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$5M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$6M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$3M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$3M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2017<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$5M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$6M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$4M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2018<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$6M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$7M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$6M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This contract extension
reduces the cap space from $32.4 million to $30.4 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Re-sign Terrance
Knighton to a three-year, $18 million contract. The contract would include a $5
million signing bonus (fully guaranteed) and a fully guaranteed base salary of
$1 million. In 2016, he would receive a $1.5 million roster bonus, along with a
$3.5 million base salary, if he is on the roster on a certain date.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Certainly the Broncos will want to reward Knighton for his
play, but he's not likely to get as much as some may think, because his quality
of play has been tied so much to the presence of Jack Del Rio. Additionally, he
will turn 29 next season, so you have to be careful how much money you commit
to him.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I believe a three-year deal that will guarantee Knighton $6
million for 2015, and the incentive to earn an additional $5 million in 2016,
will be worth it to Knighton, given that he was paid just $4 million in the
past two seasons. Here is the contract structure.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Year<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Base Salary<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Prorated<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Hit<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Dead
Money<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Savings</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2015<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1.66M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$2.66M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$6M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>($3.33M)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2016<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$3.5M ($1.5M
B) $1.66M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$6.66M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$3.33M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$3.33M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2017<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$7M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1.66M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$8.66M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1.66M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$7M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This contract
extension reduces the cap space from $30.4 million to $27.7 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Re-sign Virgil Green
to a three-year, $4.5 million contract. The contract would include a $1.2
million signing bonus.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Green has been invaluable as a blocking tight end and
special teams player. I used David Bruton's contract as the guideline, because
Bruton has also been a quality special teams player and has similar value to
Green. Here is the contract structure.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Year<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Base Salary<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Prorated<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Hit<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Dead
Money<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Cap Savings</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2015<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$800K<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$400K<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1.2M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$0</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2016<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1.25M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$400K<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1.65M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$800K<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$850K</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2017<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$1.25M<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$400K<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1.65M<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$400K<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$1.25M</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>This contract extension reduces the cap space from $27.7
million to $26.5 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
THE FRANCHISE TAG</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Place the franchise
tag on Julius Thomas, which is roughly $8 million</b>. Given that Thomas is not
a good blocking tight end, it doesn't make sense to extend him right away.
Players such as Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are not only top pass-catching
tight ends, but they are very good at blocking. Better to put the tag on Thomas
for the 2015 season and then re-evaluate. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Using
the tag on Julius Thomas reduces the cap space to $18.5 million.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
THE REST</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As for what to do with the remainder of free agents and other areas of focus, here is
what I would do.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Possibly re-sign: Will Montgomery could be brought back to
be the center if a better option cannot be found. Nate Irving and Rahim Moore
might be worth retaining, but both would have to take low-cost deals for not
more than two years and I would not give them a lot of guaranteed money.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Don't re-sign: Wes Welker is aging and declining, so he is
not worth keeping. Quinton Carter is good in coverage but a poor tackler and
the Broncos should consider other options. Mitch Unrein and Jacob Tamme have
been good for depth and special teams, but the Broncos should be able to fill those spots with younger players through other means.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Priorities elsewhere in free agency: A center if one can
be found (or bring back Montgomery), a wide receiver who can play special
teams, a free safety if Moore is not brought back.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
* Priorities in the draft: The offensive line, with
particular attention to guard and left tackle, plus linebacker, safety and
tight end.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As far as what would need to be done in 2016, it is true the
moves this season would reduce the Broncos' available cap space for that season to
$19 million. But the Broncos might get space freed up if Peyton Manning decides
to retire after the 2015 season, which would free up $19 million in cap space
by itself. Even if he doesn't, the Broncos would likely release Aqib Talib,
especially if Bradley Roby continues improving, which would free up $7 million
in cap space. DeMarcus Ware would likely be released as well, given that the
Broncos could be ready to put Quanterrus Smith into the starting lineup, along
with re-signing Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson. Cutting Ware frees $10 million
in cap space. Finally, if Ryan Clady doesn't improve in 2015, he could be cut
after that season, freeing up $6.7 million in space. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Releasing Talib, Ware and Clady would increase the Broncos'
cap space in 2016 from $19 million to $43.3 million, even if Peyton Manning decides to return
for 2016. That cap space is more than enough to re-sign Von Miller, Danny
Trevathan, Wolfe and Jackson to new deals, and would allow the Broncos a chance
to pursue other free agents.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So it really isn't that difficult for the Broncos to get
their top free agents re-signed. It just requires a wise usage of signing
bonuses and contract restructures, all which can give players a lot of money up
front, while giving the Broncos cap flexibility.</div>
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